Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice

Volumn 103, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 496-503

  Al Quwaidhi, Abdulkareem J ^a,b   Pearce, Mark S ^a   Sobngwi, Eugene ^a   Critchley, Julia A ^c   O'Flaherty, Martin ^d  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Saudi Arabia)

^c ST GEORGE'S UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Diabetes; Modelling; Prevalence; Saudi Arabia

Indexed keywords

DIABETES; MODELLING; PREVALENCE; SAUDI ARABIA;

ADULT; AGED; BODY MASS INDEX; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; FEMALE; HUMANS; INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES; MALE; MARKOV CHAINS; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; OBESITY; PREVALENCE; RISK FACTORS; SAUDI ARABIA; SMOKING;

EID: 84898905846     PISSN: 01688227     EISSN: 18728227     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2013.12.036     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Whiting D.R., Guariguata L., Weil C., Shaw J. IDF Diabetes Atlas: global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2011 and 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2011, 94(3):311-321.
2. Ekoe J.-M., Zimmet P. Diabetes mellitus: diagnosis and classification. The epidemiology of diabetes mellitus: an international perspective 2001, 11-29. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., New York. J.-M. Ekoe, P. Zimmet, R. Williams (Eds.).
3. IDF Diabetes Atlas 5th edition: International Diabetes Federation 2011, Available from: http://www.idf.org/diabetesatlas/5e/ [accessed March 2013].
4. Finucane M.M., Stevens G.A., Cowan M.J., Danaei G., Lin J.K., Paciorek C.J., et al. National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9· 1 million participants. Lancet 2011, 377(9765):557-567.
5. Danaei G., Finucane M.M., Lu Y., Singh G.M., Cowan M.J., Paciorek C.J., et al. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. Lancet 2011, 378(9785):31-40.
6. Shaw J.E., Sicree R.A., Zimmet P.Z. Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2010, 87:4-14.
7. Wild S., Roglic G., Green A., Sicree R., King H. Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030. Diabetes Care 2004, 27(5):1047-1053.
8. King H., Aubert R.E., Herman W.H. Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections. Diabetes Care 1998, 21(9):1414-1431.
9. Amos A.F., McCarty D.J., Zimmet P. The rising global burden of diabetes and its complications: estimates and projections to the year 2010. Diabet Med 1997, 14(S5):S7-S85.
10. Guh D., Zhang W., Bansback N., Amarsi Z., Birmingham C.L., Anis A. The incidence of co-morbidities related to obesity and overweight: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Public Health 2009, 9(1):88.
11. Willi C., Bodenmann P., Ghali W.A., Faris P.D., Cornuz J. Active smoking and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA 2007, 298(22):2654-2664.
12. WHO STEPwise Approach to NCD Surveillance Country-Specific Standard Report, Saudi Arabia 2005, Available from: www.who.int/chp/steps/2005_SaudiArabia_STEPS_Report_EN.pdf [accessed March 2013].
13. Bowman S., Unwin N., Critchley J., Capewell S., Husseini A., Maziak W., et al. Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: a policy effectiveness-feasibility loop. WHO Bull 2012, http://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/en/.
14. Maziak W., Critchley J.A., Zaman S., Unwin N., Capewell S., Bennett K., Unal B., Husseini A., Ben Romdhane H., Phillimore P. MEDiterranean studies of Cardiovascular disease and Hyperglycaemia: Analytical Modelling of Population Socio-economic transitions (MedCHAMPS): Rationale and Methods. Int J Public Health 2013, Aug, 58(4):547-553. MedCHAMPS collaboration.
15. Central Department of Statistics and Information Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Official website) 2013, Available from: http://www.cdsi.gov.sa/english/ [accessed February 2013].
16. The United Nations; Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. Detailed indicators 2011, Available from: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_indicators.htm.
17. Warsy A.S., El-Hazmi M.A.F. Diabetes mellitus, hypertension and obesity-common multifactorial disorders in Saudis. East Mediterr Health J 1999, 5(6):1236-1242.
18. Al-Nozha M.M., Al-Mazrou Y.Y., Al-Maatouq M.A., Arafah M.R., Khalil M.Z., Khan N.B., et al. Obesity in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Med J 2005, 26(5):824-829.
19. Jarallah J.S., Al-Rubeaan K.A., Al-Nuaim A.R.A., Al-Ruhaily A.A., Kalantan K.A. Prevalence and determinants of smoking in three regions of Saudi Arabia. Tob Control 1999, 8:53-56.
20. Hennekens C.H., Buring J.E. Epidemiology in medicine 1987, Little, Brown and Company, United States of America. 1st ed. S.L. Mayrent (Ed.).
21. Barendregt J.J., Oortmarssen G.J.v., Vos T., Murray C.J. A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II. Popul Health Metrics 2003, 1:4.
22. Szklo M., Nieto F.J. Epidemiology: beyond the basics. Second edition 2007, Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc.
23. Walker D., Fox-Rushby J. Allowing for uncertainty in economic evaluations: qualitative sensitivity analysis. Health Policy Plan 2001, 16(4):435-443.
24. Briggs A. Probabilistic analysis of cost-effectiveness models: statistical representation of parameter uncertainty. Value Health 2005, 8:1-2.
25. Guariguata L., Whiting D., Weil C., Unwin N. The International Diabetes Federation diabetes atlas methodology for estimating global and national prevalence of diabetes in adults. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2011, 94(3):322-332.
26. Al-Nozha M.M., Al-Maatouq M.A., Al-Mazrou Y.Y., Al-Harthi S.S., Arafah M.R., Khalil M.Z., et al. Diabetes mellitus in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Med J 2004, 25:1603-1610.
27. Asfour M.G., Lambourne A., Soliman A., Al-Behlani S., Al-Asfoor D., Bold A., et al. High prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in the sultanate of Oman: results of the 1991 National Survey. Diabet Med 1995, 12:1122-1125.
28. Holman N., Forouhi N.G., Goyder E., Wild S.H. The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010-2030. Diabet Med 2011, 28(5):575-582.
29. Khatib O.M.N. Guidelines for the prevention, management and care of diabetes mellitus: World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean [EMRO Technical Publication Series, No. 32] 2006.
30. International Diabetes and Federation Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Regional Meeting: Supporting the Implementation of the United Nations Resolution (UNR) on Diabetes (61/225) in Middle East and North Africa 2009.
31. Al-Nuaim A.R. Prevalence of glucose intolerance in urban and rural communities in Saudi Arabia. Diabet Med 1997, 14:595-602.
32. El-Hazmi M.A.F., Warsy A.S., Al-Swailem A.R., Al-Swailem A.M., Sulaimani R. Diabetes mellitus as a health problem in Saudi Arabia. East Mediterr Health J 1998, 4(1):58-67.
33. El-Hazmi M.A.F., Al-Swailem A., Warsy A.S., Al-Sudairy F., Sulaimani R., Al-Swailem A., et al. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in the population of Riyadh. Ann Saudi Med 1995, 15(6):598-601.