The RAND continuous 2012 presidential election poll

Public Opinion Quarterly

Volumn 78, Issue S1, 2014, Pages 233-254

  Gutsche, Tania L ^a,b   Kapteyn, Arie ^a,b   Meijer, Erik ^a,b   Weerman, Bas ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84898770722     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfu009     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). 2011 Standard Definitions: Final Depositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys Standard Definitions Report, 7th ed. available at http://www.aapor.org/Standard-Definitions3/3557.htm.
2. Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Eitan Hersh. 2012. "Validation: What Big Data Reveal about Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate." Political Analysis 20:437-59.
3. Barber, Michael, Chris Mann, J. Quin Monson, and Kelly D. Patterson. 2010. "Online Polls and Registration Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-Election Polling." Paper presented at the 2010 AAPOR Meeting, Chicago, IL, USA.
4. Belli, Robert F., Michael W. Traugott, Margaret Young, and Katherine A. McGonagle. 1999. "Reducing Vote Overreporting in Surveys: Social Desirability, Memory Failure, and Source Monitoring." Public Opinion Quarterly 63:90-108.
5. Berent, Matthew K., Jon A. Krosnick, and Arthur Lupia. 2011. "The Quality of Government Records and 'Overestimation' of Registration and Turnout in Surveys: Lessons from the 2008 ANES Panel Study's Registration and Turnout Validation Exercises." Working Paper No. nes012554. Ann Arbor, MI, and Palo Alto, CA: American National Election Studies. Available at http://www.electionstudies.org/resources/papers/nes012554.pdf.
6. Bolstein, Richard. 1991. "Predicting the Likelihood to Vote in Pre-Election Polls." Statistician 40:277-83.
7. Burden, Barry C. 1997. "Deterministic and Probabilistic Voting Models." American Journal of Political Science 41:1150-69.
8. Callegaro, Mario, and Charles DiSogra. 2008. "Computing Response Metrics for Online Panels." Public Opinion Quarterly 72:1008-32.
9. Chang, Linchiat, and Jon A. Krosnick. 2009. "National Surveys via RDD Telephone Interviewing versus the Internet: Comparing Sample Representativeness and Response Quality." Public Opinion Quarterly 73:641-78.
10. Couper, Mick P., Arie Kapteyn, Matthias Schonlau, and Joachim Winter. 2007. "Noncoverage and Nonresponse in an Internet Survey." Social Science Research 36:131-48.
11. Delavande, Adeline, and Charles F. Manski. 2010. "Probabilistic Polling and Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election: Evidence from the American Life Panel." Public Opinion Quarterly 74:433-59.
12. Dimock, Michael, Scott Keeler, Mark Schulman, and Carolyn Miller. 2001. "A Voter Validation Experiment; Screening for Likely Voter in Pre-Election Surveys." Paper presented at the 56th AAPOR Conference, Montreal, Canada.
13. Duffy, Bobby, Kate Smith, George Terhanian, and John Bremer. 2005. "Comparing Data from Online and Face-to-Face Surveys." International Journal of Market Research 47:615-39.
14. Erikson, Robert S., Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004. "Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics." Public Opinion Quarterly 68:588-601.
15. Federal Election Commission. 2009. "2008 Official Presidential General Election Results." Available at http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/2008presgeresults.pdf.
16. 2013. "Official 2012 Presidential General Election Results." Available at http://www.fec. gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012presgeresults.pdf.
17. Fishbein, Martin, and Icek Ajzen. 1975. Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
18. Freedman, Paul, and Ken Goldstein. 1996. "Building a Probable Electorate from Preelection Polls: A Two-Stage Approach." Public Opinion Quarterly 60:574-87.
19. Kapteyn, Arie, Erik Meijer, and Bas Weerman. 2012. "Methodology of the RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll." Working Paper No. WR-961. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
20. Kraut, Robert E., and John B. McConahay. 1973. "How Being Interviewed Affects Voting: An Experiment." Public Opinion Quarterly 37:398-406.
21. Loosveldt, Geert, and Nathalie Sonck. 2008. "An Evaluation of the Weighting Procedures for an Online Access Panel Survey." Survey Research Methods 2:93-105.
22. Malhotra, Neil, and Jon A. Krosnick. 2007. "The Effect of Survey Mode and Sampling on Inferences about Political Attitudes and Behavior: Comparing the 2000 and 2004 ANES to Internet Surveys with Nonprobability Samples." Political Analysis 15:286-323.
23. McDonald, Michael P. 2012. "2008 General Election Turnout Rates." "United States Elections Project." Available at http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout-2008G.html.
24. McDonald M.P. 2013. "2012 General Election Turnout Rates." United States Elections Project. Available at http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout-2012G.html.
25. Murray, Gregg R., Chris Riley, and Anthony Scime. 2009. "Pre-Election Polling: Identifying Likely Voters Using Iterative Expert Data Mining." Public Opinion Quarterly 73:159-71.
26. Perry, Paul. 1979. "Certain Problems in Election Survey Methodology." Public Opinion Quarterly 43:359-78.
27. Petrocik, John R. 1991. "An Algorithm for Estimating Turnout as a Guide to Predicting Elections." Public Opinion Quarterly 55:643-47.
28. Rogers, Todd, and Masa Aida. 2013. "Vote Self-Prediction Hardly Predicts Who Will Vote, and Is (Misleadingly) Unbiased." Working Paper No. RWP13-010. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
29. Rothschild, David, and Justin Wolfers. 2013. "Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations." Working Paper, University of Michigan, Department of Economics. Available at http://users.nber.org/~jwolfers/papers/VoterExpectations.pdf.
30. Sanders, David, Harold D. Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whitely. 2007. "Does Mode Matter for Modeling Political Choice? Evidence from the 2005 British Election Study." Political Analysis 15:257-85.
31. Schonlau, Matthias, Arthur van Soest, Arie Kapteyn, and Mick Couper. 2009. "Selection Bias in Web Surveys and the Use of Propensity Scores." Sociological Methods & Research 37:291-318.
32. Silver, Brian D., Barbara A. Anderson, and Paul R. Abramson. 1986. "Who Overreports Voting?" American Political Science Review 80:613-24.
33. Silver, Nate. 2012. "FiveThirtyEight's 2012 Forecast." Available at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs. nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/.
34. Traugott, Michael W., and Clyde Tucker. 1984. "Strategies for Predicting Whether a Citizen Will Vote and Estimation of Electoral Outcomes." Public Opinion Quarterly 48:330-43.
35. Yeager, David S., Jon A. Krosnick, Linchiat Chang, Harold S. Javitz, Matthew S. Levendusky, Alberto Simpser, and Rui Wang. 2011. "Comparing the Accuracy of RDD Telephone Surveys and Internet Surveys Conducted with Probability and Non-Probability Samples." Public Opinion Quarterly 75:709-47.