Modelling the effects of weather and climate on malaria distributions in West Africa

Malaria Journal

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2014, Pages

  Arab, Ali ^a   Jackson, Monica C ^b   Kongoli, Cezar ^c,d  

^a GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b AMERICAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^d NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; ARTICLE; BAYESIAN LEARNING; BENIN; BURKINA FASO; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; GAMBIA; GHANA; HUMAN; LIBERIA; MALARIA; MALI; MODEL; PRECIPITATION; SENEGAL; TOGO; WEATHER;

AFRICA, WESTERN; BAYES THEOREM; CLIMATE; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALARIA; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PLASMODIUM; WEATHER;

EID: 84898425646     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14752875     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-126     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. World Health Organization, World malaria report 2012 Geneva: World Health Organization 2012 http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world-malaria-report- 2012/report/en
2. Centers for disease control and prevention: malaria [ http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes ]
3. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an east African highland. Alonso D, Bouma MJ, Pascual M, Proc Biol Sci 2010 278 1661 1669 21068045
4. Modelling the effect of temperature change on the extrinsic incubation period and reproductive number of Plasmodium falciparum in Malaysia. Chua TH, Trop Biomed 2012 29 121 128 22543612
5. The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa. Ermert V, Fink AH, Morse AP, Paeth H, Environ Health Perspect 2012 120 77 84 21900078
6. Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission. Parham PE, Michael E, Environ Health Perspect 2010 118 620 626 20435552
7. Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach. Gillioli G, Mariani L, Malar J 2011 10 294 10.1186/1475-2875-10-294 21985188
8. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Mordecai EA, Paaijmans KP, Johnson LR, Balzer C, Ben-Horin T, de Moor E, McNally A, Pawar S, Ryan SJ, Smith TC, Lafferty KD, Ecol Lett 2012 16 22 30 23050931
9. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia. Siraj AS, Santos-Vega M, Bouma MJ, Yadeta D, Carrascal DR, Pascual M, Science 2014 343 1154 1158 10.1126/science.1244325 24604201
10. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J, Tompkins AM, Morse AP, Colón-González FJ, Stenlund H, Martens P, Lloyd SJ, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2014 111 3286 3291 10.1073/pnas.1302089111 24596427
11. Indian Ocean Dipole and rainfall drive a Moran effect in East Africa malaria transmission. Chaves LF, Satake A, Hashizume M, Minakawa N, J Infect Dis 2012 205 1885 1891 10.1093/infdis/jis289 22492847
12. Bayesian space-time modeling of malaria incidence in Sucre state, Venezuela. Villalta D, Guenni L, Rubio-Palis Y, Arbeláez RR, AStA Adv Stat Anal 2013 97 151 171 10.1007/s10182-012-0190-9
13. Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon forest: malaria count data. Achcar JA, Martinez EZ, de Souza AD P, Tachibana VM, Flores EF, Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2011 44 749 754 10.1590/S0037- 86822011000600019 22231249
14. Social and environmental determinants of malaria in space and time in Viet Nam. Bui HM, Clements AC, Nguyen QT, Nguyen MH, Le XH, Hay SI, Tran TH, Wertheim HF, Snow RW, Horby P, Int J Parasitol 2011 41 109 116 10.1016/j.ijpara.2010.08.005 20833173
15. Spatio-temporal models for mapping the incidence of malaria in Pará Nobre AA, Schmidt AM, Lopes HF, Environmetrics 2005 16 291 304 10.1002/env.704 (Pubitemid 40654008)
16. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climate Data Center (NCDC), [ http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov ]
17. Modelling the effect of climate change on the prevalence of Malaria in Western Africa. Jackson MC, Colson A, Johansen L, Furlong C, Sellers KF, Statistica Neerlandica 2010 64 388 400 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00453.x
18. World Health Organization, World malaria report 2008 Geneva: World Health Organization 2008 http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/9789241563697/ en/
19. Hierarchical Bayesian time series models. Berliner LM, Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods Netherlands: Springer 1996 15 22
20. Hierarchical spatial models. Arab A, Hooten MB, Wikle CK, Encyclopedia of geographical information science New York: Springer, Shekhar S, Xiong H, 2008 425 431
21. Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities. Gelfand AE, Smith AFM, J Am Stat Assoc 1990 85 398 409 10.1080/01621459.1990.10476213
22. Explaining the Gibbs sampler. Casella G, George EI, Am Stat 1992 46 167 174
23. Robert CP, Casella G, Monte Carlo statistical methods New York: Springer-Verlag 2 2004
24. WinBUGS-a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best N, Spiegelhalter D, Stat Comput 2000 10 325 337 10.1023/A:1008929526011
25. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, Van der Linde A, J R Stat Soc Ser B 2002 64 583 639 10.1111/1467-9868.00353