Twenty-first century changes in daily temperature variability in CMIP3 climate models

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 5, 2014, Pages 1414-1428

  Ylhäisi, Jussi S ^a   Räisänen, Jouni ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Climate change; CMIP3; Distribution changes; Temperature; Variability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; HIGHER ORDER STATISTICS; SEA ICE; TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION;

CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; CMIP3; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; DISTRIBUTION CHANGES; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; NEGATIVE CORRELATION; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; VARIABILITY;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANNUAL CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; MODEL; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE PROFILE;

EID: 84897916277     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3773     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticcucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05109, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006290
2. Annan JD, Hargreaves JC. 2010. Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L02703, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL041994
3. Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goosse H. 2006. Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modelling 12: 401-415.
4. Bessec M, Fouquau J. 2008. The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: a threshold panel approach. Energy Econmics 30: 2705-2721.
5. Connolley WM. 1996. The Antarctic temperature inversion. International Journal of Climatology 16: 1333-1342.
6. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 137: 553-597, DOI: 10.1002/qj.828
7. Dessai S, Lu X, Hulme M. 2005. Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D19108, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD005919
8. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C. 2008. Performance metrics for climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D06104, DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008972
9. Griffiths GM, Chambers LE, Haylock MR, Manton MJ, Nicholls N, Baek H-J, Choi Y, Della-Marta PM, Gosai A, Iga N, Lata R, Laurent V, Maitrepierre L, Nakamigawa H, Ouprasitwong N, Solofa D, Tahani L, Thuy DT, Tibig L, Trewin B, Vediapan K, Zhai P. 2005. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1301-1330.
10. Johnson NL, Kotz S, Balakrishnan N. 1994. Continuous univariate distributions, Vol. 1. Wiley Interscience: New York.
11. Katz RW, Brown BG. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change 21: 289-302.
12. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC. 2007. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate 20: 1419-1444.
13. Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H, Jenne R, Fiorino M. 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82: 247-267.
14. Knutti R, Furrer R, Tebaldi C, Cermak J, Meehl GA. 2010. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate 23: 2739-2758.
15. Knutti R, Sedláček J. 2013. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change 3: 369-373, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1716
16. Kravtsov S, Spannangle C. 2007. Multidecadal climate variability in observed and modeled surface temperatures. Journal of Climate 21: 1104-1121.
17. Li H, Robock A, Wild M. 2007. Evaluation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment soil moisture simulations for the second half of the twentieth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D06106, DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007455
18. Macadam I, Pitman AJ, Whetton PH, Abramowitz G. 2010. Ranking climate models by performance using actual values and anomalies: implications for climate change impact assessments. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L16704, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043877
19. Maxino CC, McAvaney BJ, Pitman AJ, Perkins SE. 2008. Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray-Darling basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. International Journal of Climatology 28: 1097-1112.
20. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao ZC. 2007a. Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
21. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE. 2007b. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 1383-1394.
22. Min S-K, Hense A. 2006. A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part II: Regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures. Journal of Climatology 20: 2769-2790.
23. Nachtergeale FO, van Ranst E. 2003. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of soil databases in tropical countries. In Evolution of Tropical Soil Science, Past and Present, Stoops G (ed). Koninklijke Academie voor Overzeese Wetenschnappen: Brussels; 107-126.
24. Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z. 2000. Emission scenarios. A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 599.
25. Orlowski B, Seneviratne SI. 2011. Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Climatic Change 110(3-4): 669-696.
26. Perkins SE, Pitman AJ, Holbrook NJ, McAneney J. 2007. Evaluation of the AR4 climate models' simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. Journal of Climate 20: 4356-4376.
27. Pilli-Sihvola K, Aatola P, Ollikainen M, Tuomenvirta H. 2010. Climate change and electricity consumption-Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs? Energy Policy 38: 2409-2419.
28. Räisänen J. 2001. CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments. Quantification of agreement and role of internal variability. Journal of Climatology 14: 2088-2104.
29. 2-induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP2 experiments. Journal of Climate 15: 2395-2411.
30. Räisänen J, Ruokolainen L, Ylhäisi J. 2010. Weighting of models results for improving best estimates of climate change. Climate Dynamics 35: 407-422.
31. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE. 2007. Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
32. Reichler T, Kim J. 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89: 303-311.
33. st century. Wiley Interdisciplinary. Reviews: Climate Change, 3: 115-129. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.160
34. Schaeffer M, Selten FM, Opsteegh JD. 2005. Shifts in means are not a proxy for changes in extreme winter temperatures in climate projections. Climate Dynamics 25: 51-63.
35. Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschki M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ. 2010. Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth-Science Reviews 99(3-4): 125-161.
36. Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. and G.A. Meehl, 2011. A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. Available at: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf
37. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA. 2006. Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79: 185-211.
38. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 131: 2961-3012.
39. Von Storch H, Zwiers F. 1999. Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
40. Wilks DS. 2006. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, Elsevier: Burlington, MA, San Diego, California, USA and London, United Kingdom.
41. Zhou T, Yu R. 2006. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models. Journal of Climate 19: 5843-5858.