Is Eurasian snow cover in October a reliable statistical predictor for the wintertime climate on the Iberian Peninsula?

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 5, 2014, Pages 1615-1627

  Brands, S ^a   Herrera, S ^b   Gutierrez J M ^a  

^a INSTITUTO DE FÍSICA DE CANTABRIA CSIC UC   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CANTABRIA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Iberian Peninsula; Seasonal forecasting; Snow cover; Statistical forecasting; Teleconnections

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; IBERIAN PENINSULA; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SNOW COVERS; STATISTICAL FORECASTING; TELECONNECTIONS;

SNOW;

ANTICYCLONE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE VARIATION; CYCLONE; HINDCASTING; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; OUTLIER; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SNOW COVER; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY; TELECONNECTION; WEATHER FORECASTING; WESTERLY; WINTER;

IBERIAN PENINSULA;

EID: 84897912072     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3788     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Andrews D. 1974. A robust method for multiple linear-regression. Technometrics 16(4): 523-531. DOI: 10.2307/1267603
2. Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ. 1999. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 104(D24): 30937-30946. DOI: 10.1029/1999JD900445
3. Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ, Dunkerton TJ, Charlton AJ, O'Neill A. 2003. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301(5633): 636-640. DOI: 10.1126/science.1087143
4. Barnett TP, Dümenil L, Schlese U, Roeckner E, Latif M. 1989. The effect of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 46: 661-685. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0661:TEOESC>2.0.CO;2.
5. Beranova R, Huth R. 2007. Time variations of the relationships between the north atlantic oscillation and european winter temperature and precipitation. Studia Geohphysica et Geodaetica 51(4): 575-590. DOI: 10.1007/s11200-007-0034-3
6. Brands S. 2013. Skillful seasonal predictions of boreal winter accumulated heating degree days and relevance for the weather derivative market. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 52: 1297-1302. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0303.1
7. Brands S, Herrera S, Fernandez J, Gutierrez J. 2013. How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa? A performance comparison for the downscaling community. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8
8. Brands S, Manzanas R, Gutierrez JM, Cohen J. 2012. Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index. Journal of Climate 25(12): 4023-4028. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00083.1
9. Bretherton C, Widmann M, Dymnikov V, Wallace J, Blade I. 1999. The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. Journal of Climate 12(7): 1990-2009. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2
10. Charlton-Perez AJ, Baldwin MP, Birner T, Black RX, Butler AH, Calvo N, Davis NA, Gerber EP, Gillett N, Hardiman S, Kim J, Krüger K, Lee YY, Manzini E, McDaniel BA, Polvani L, Reichler T, Shaw TA, Sigmond M, Son SW, Toohey M, Wilcox L, Yoden S, Christiansen B, Lott F, Shindell D, Yukimoto S, Watanabe S. 2013. On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118(6): 2494-2505. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50125
11. Cohen J, Barlow M, Kushner PJ, Saito K. 2007. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land surface variability. Journal of Climate 20(21): 5335-5343. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1
12. Cohen J, Entekhabi D. 1999. Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 26(3): 345-348. DOI: 10.1029/1998GL900321
13. Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J. 2010. Winter 2009-2010: a case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L17707. DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044256
14. Cohen J, Jones J. 2011. A new index for more accurate winter predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 38: L21701. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049626
15. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Koehler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thepaut JN, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137(656, Part a): 553-597. DOI: 10.1002/qj.828
16. DelSole T, Shukla J. 2009. Artificial Skill due to Predictor Screening. Journal of Climate 22(2): 331-345. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2414.1
17. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Weisheimer A, Deque M, Keenlyside N, McVean M, Murphy JM, Rogel P, Smith D, Palmer TN. 2009. Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 135(643): 1538-1559. DOI: 10.1002/qj.464
18. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Garcia-Serrano J, Lienert F, Pinto Biescas A, Rodriguez LRL. 2013. Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects. WIREs Climate Change 4: 245-268. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.217.
19. Fletcher CG, Hardiman SC, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2009. The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations. Journal of Climate 22(5): 1208-1222. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2505.1
20. Fletcher CG, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2007. Stratospheric control of the extratropical circulation response to surface forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 34(21). DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031626
21. Folland CK, Scaife AA, Lindesay J, Stephenson DB. 2012. How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? International Journal of Climatology 32(6): 801-818. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2314
22. Frias MD, Herrera S, Cofino AS, Gutierrez JM. 2010. Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events. Journal of Climate 23(2): 209-220. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2824.1
23. Gong G, Entekhabi D, Cohen J. 2003. Modeled Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies. Journal of Climate 16(23): 3917-3931. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3917:MNHWCR>2.0.CO;2
24. Goodess CM, Jones PD. 2002. Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 22(13): 1593-1615. DOI: 10.1002/joc.810
25. Gutierrez J, Cofino A, Cano R, Rodriguez M. 2004. Clustering methods for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 132(9): 2169-2183. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2169:CMFSDI>2.0.CO;2
26. Gutierrez JM, Cano R, Cofino AS, Sordo C. 2005. Analysis and downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps. Tellus A 57(3): 435-447. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00128.x
27. Hardiman SC, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2008. Investigating the ability of general circulation models to capture the effects of Eurasian snow cover on winter climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 113(D21). DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010623
28. Henderson GR, Leathers DJ, Hanson B. 2013. Circulation response to Eurasian versus North American Anomalous Snow Scenarios in the Northern Hemisphere with an AGCM coupled to a Slab Ocean Model. Journal of Climate 26: 1502-1515. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00465.1.
29. Hertig E, Jacobeit J. 2011. Predictability of Mediterranean climate variables from oceanic variability. Part II: Statistical models for monthly precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. Climate Dynamics 36(5-6): 825-843. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0821-3
30. Hewitson B, Crane R. 2002. Self-organizing maps: applications to synoptic climatology. Climate Research 22(1): 13-26. DOI: 10.3354/cr022013
31. Huber P. 2009. Robust Statistics, 2 edn. Wiley: Hoboken, NJ.
32. Hurrell J, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M. 2003. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 134. AGU: Washington, DC; 279.
33. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North-Atlantic Oscillation-regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269(5224): 676-679. DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5224.676
34. Jenkinson A, Collison F. 1977. An Initial Climatology of Gales Over the North Sea. Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum, Vol. 62. Meteorlogical Office: Bracknell, D.C.
35. Jolliffe I, Stephenson DB. 2003. Forecast Verification. A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 1 edn. Wiley: Chichester.
36. Jones P, Hulme M, Briffa K. 1993. A comparison of Lamb Circulation Types with an objective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology 13(6): 655-663. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3370130606
37. Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA. 2012. Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Climate Dynamics 39(12): 2957-2973. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
38. Klok EJ, Tank AMGK. 2009. Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. International Journal of Climatology 29(8): 1182-1191. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1779
39. Kristjansson JE, Staple A, Kristiansen J, Kaas E. 2002. A new look at possible connections between solar activity, clouds and climate. Geophysical Research Letters 29(23): 2107. DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015646
40. Kutzbach J. 1970. Large-scale features of monthly mean Northern Hemisphere anomaly maps of sea-level pressure. Monthly Weather Review 98(9): 708. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1970)098<0708:LSFOMM>2.3.CO;2
41. Labitzke K, Kunzel M, Broennimann S. 2006. Sunspots, the QBO and the stratosphere in the North Polar Region-20 years later. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 15(3): 355-363. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0136 Colloquium in honor of Karin Labitzke on the Occasion of her 70th Birthday, Berlin, GERMANY, OCT 24, 2005.
42. Lamb H. 1972. British Isles Weather Types and a Register of Daily Sequences of Circulation Patterns, 1861-1971. Geophyiscal Memoir, Vol. 116. HMSO: London.
43. Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ, Gimeno L. 2008. Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493-1505. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646
44. Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ, Iglesias I, Gomez-Gesteira M. 2011. Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas. Climatic Change 107(3-4): 329-341. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9991-6
45. Michaelsen J. 1987. Cross-validation in statitical climate forecast models. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 26(11): 1589-1600. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1987)026<1589:CVISCF>2.0.CO;2
46. Mote TL, Kutney ER. 2012. Regions of autumn Eurasian snow cover and associations with North American winter temperatures. International Journal of Climatology 32(8): 1164-1177. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2341
47. Orsolini Y, Senan R, Balsamo G, Doblas-Reyes F, Vitart A, Weisheimer A, Carrasco R, Benestad R. 2013. Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0
48. Peings Y, Saint-Martin D, Douville H. 2012. A numerical sensitivity study of the influence of Siberian snow on the Northern Annular Mode. Journal of Climate 25(2): 592-607. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00038.1
49. Peings Y, Brun E, Mauvais V, Douville H. 2013. How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and the Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century?. Geophysical Research Letters 40(1): 183-188. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054083.
50. Polvani LM, Waugh DW. 2004. Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes. Journal of Climate 17(18): 3548-3554. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3548:UWAFAA>2.0.CO;2
51. Ramsay BH. 1998. The interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system. Hydrological Processes 12(10-11): 1537-1546. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199808/09)12:10/11<1537::AID-HYP679>3.0.CO;2-A
52. Rodo X, Baert E, Comin F. 1997. Variations in seasonal rainfall in southern Europe during the present century: relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Climate Dynamics 13(4): 275-284. DOI: 10.1007/s003820050165
53. Rodriguez-Fonseca B, de Castro M. 2002. On the connection between winter anomalous precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and North West Africa and the summer subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters 29(18). DOI: 10.1029/2001GL014421
54. Rodriguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Saenz J. 2001. Winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices. Hydrology and Earth System Science 5(2, SI): 233-244.
55. Saito K, Cohen J, Entekhabi D. 2001. Evolution of atmospheric response to early-season Eurasian snow cover anomalies. Monthly Weather Review 129(11): 2746-2760. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2746:EOARTE>2.0.CO;2
56. Smith KL, Kushner PJ, Cohen J. 2011. The role of linear interference in northern annular mode variability associated with Eurasian snow cover extent. Journal of Climate 24(23): 6185-6202. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00055.1
57. Street J, Carroll R, Ruppert D. 1988. A note on computing robust regression estimates via iteratively reweighted least-squares. American Statistican 42(2): 152-154. DOI: 10.2307/2684491
58. Tangang F, Hsieh W, Tang B. 1997. Forecasting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures by neural network models. Climate Dynamics 13(2): 135-147. DOI: 10.1007/s003820050156
59. Tank AMGK, Wijngaard JB, Konnen GP, Bohm R, Demaree G, Gocheva A, Mileta M, Pashiardis S, Hejkrlik L, Kern-Hansen C, Heino R, Bessemoulin P, Muller-Westermeier G, Tzanakou M, Szalai S, Palsdottir T, Fitzgerald D, Rubin S, Capaldo M, Maugeri M, Leitass A, Bukantis A, Aberfeld R, Van Engelen AFV, Forland E, Mietus M, Coelho F, Mares C, Razuvaev V, Nieplova E, Cegnar T, Lopez JA, Dahlstrom B, Moberg A, Kirchhofer W, Ceylan A, Pachaliuk O, Alexander LV, Petrovic P. 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International Journal of Climatology 22(12): 1441-1453. DOI: 10.1002/joc.773
60. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(4): 485-498. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
61. Thompson D, Wallace J. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters 25(9): 1297-1300. DOI: 10.1029/98GL00950
62. Trenberth K. 1984. Some effects of finite-sample size and persistence on meteorological statistics 1. Autocorrelations. Monthly Weather Review 112(12): 2359-2368. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2359:SEOFSS>2.0.CO;2
63. Trigo RM, DaCamara CC. 2000. Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology 20(13): 1559-1581. DOI: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001115)20:13<1559::AID-JOC555>3.0.CO;2-5
64. Vicente-Serrano SM, Trigo RM, Lopez-Moreno JI, Liberato MLR, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Begueria S, Moran-Tejeda E, El Kenawy A. 2011. Extreme winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula in 2010: anomalies, driving mechanisms and future projections. Climate Research 46(1): 51-65. DOI: 10.3354/cr00977
65. von Storch H, Zwiers F. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
66. Walker G, Bliss E. 1932. World weather V. Memoirs of the Royal Meteorological Society 4(36): 53-83.
67. Wilks D. 2006. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2 edn. Elsevier: Amsterdam.
68. Zappa G, Shaffrey L, Hodges K. 2013. The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1
69. Zorita E, Kharin V, von Storch H. 1992. The atmospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic area in Winter-their interaction and relevance for Iberian precipitation. Journal of Climate 5(10): 1097-1108. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<1097:TACASS>2.0.CO;2