Stratospheric ozone depletion: A key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 42, Issue 7-8, 2014, Pages 1775-1792

  Gonzalez, Paula L M ^a   Polvani, Lorenzo M ^b,c,d   Seager, Richard ^d   Correa, Gustavo J P ^d  

^a Earth Institute   (United States)

^b Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University ^*  (United States)

^c Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^d Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

Ozone depletion; Precipitation; South America

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; OZONE DEPLETION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); STRATOSPHERE;

SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 84897576830     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1777-x     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Arblaster JM, Meehl GA, Karoly DJ (2011) Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases. Geophys Res Lett 38: L02701. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL045384.
2. Barros VR, Doyle ME, Camilloni IA (2008) Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 93: 19-33.
3. Chan SC, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Indian Ocean Dipole influence on South American rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 35: L14S12. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL034204.
4. Cionni I, Eyring V, Lamarque JF, Randel WJ, Stevenson DS, Wu F, Bodeker GE, Shepherd TG, Shindell DT, Waugh DW (2011) Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing. Atmos Chem Phys 11: 11267-11292.
5. Collins WD et al (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19: 2122-2143.
6. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38: 527-546. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
7. Eyring V et al (2012) Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. J Geophys Res. doi: 10. 1002/jgrd. 50316.
8. Garcia RR et al (2007) Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950-2003. J Geophys Res 112: D09301. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD007485.
9. Gent PR et al (2011) The Community climate system model version 4. J Clim 24: 4973-4991. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI4083. 1.
10. Gillett N, Thompson DWJ (2003) Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 302: 2730-275. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1087440.
11. Gonzalez PLM, Goddard L, Greene AM (2012) Twentieth-century summer precipitation in South Eastern South America: comparison of gridded and station data. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 3633.
12. Gerber EP et al (2012) Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93: 845-859. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-D-11-00145. 1.
13. Haylock MR et al (2006) In total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J Clim 19: 1490-1512.
14. Hu Y, Xia Y, Fu Q (2011) Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century. Atmos Chem Phys 11: 7687-7699. doi: 10. 5194/acp-11-7687-2011.
15. Kang SM, Polvani LM, Fyfe JC, Sigmond M (2011) Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science 332: 951-954.
16. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London.
17. Lamarque JF et al (2010) Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos Chem Phys 10: 7017-7039. doi: 10. 5194/acp-10-7017-2010.
18. Lee S, Feldstein SB (2013) Detecting ozone- and greenhouse-gas-driven wind trends with observational data. Science 339(6119): 563-567.
19. Liebmann B et al (2004) An observed trend in central South American precipitation. J Clim 17: 4357-4367. doi: 10. 1175/3205. 1.
20. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245-259.
21. McLandress C, Jonsson AI, Plummer DA, Reader MC, Scinocca JF, Shepherd TG (2010) Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. J Clim 23: 5002-5020. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3586. 1.
22. McLandress C, Shepherd TG, Scinocca JF, Plummer DA, Sigmond M, Jonsson AI, Reader MC (2011) Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Troposphere. J Clim 24: 1850-1868. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3958. 1.
23. Morgenstern O et al (2010) Review of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings. J Geophys Res 115: D00M02. doi: 10. 1029/2009JD013728.
24. Meehl G, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88: 1383-1394.
25. Perlwitz J, Pawson S, Fogt RL, Nielsen JE, Neff WD (2008) Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate. Geophys Res Lett 35: L08714. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL033317.
26. Polvani LM, Waugh DW, Correa JGP, Son SW (2011a) Stratospheric ozone depletion: the main driver of 20th Century atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. J Clim 24: 795-812. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3772. 1.
27. Polvani LM, Previdi M, Deser C (2011b) Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends. Geophys Res Lett 38: L04707. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL046712.
28. Previdi M, Polvani LM (2012) Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st Century" by Hu et al. (2011). Atmos Chem Phys 12: 4893-4896 doi: 10. 5194/acp-12-4893-2012.
29. Randel WJ, Wu F (2007) A stratospheric ozone profile data set for 1979-2005: variability, trends, and comparisons with column ozone data. J Geophys Res 112: D06313. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD007339.
30. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108: 4407. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002670.
31. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1996) Quantifying southern oscillation-precipitation relationships. J Clim 9: 1043-1959.
32. Schneider U, Fuchs T, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B (2008) Global precipitation analysis products of the GPCC. Global Precipitation climatology, Centre Tech Rep, 12 pp.
33. Scinocca JF, McFarlane NA, Lazare M, Li J, Plummer D (2008) The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere. Atmos Chem Phys 8: 7055-7074.
34. Seager R, Naik N, Baethgen W, Robertson A, Kushnir Y, Nakamura J, Jurburg S (2010) Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in Southeast South America over the past century. J Clim 23: 5517-5539. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3578. 1.
35. Sigmond M, Fyfe JC, Scinocca JF (2010) Does the ocean impact the atmospheric response to stratospheric ozone depletion. Geophys Res Lett 37: L12706. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL043773.
36. Silvestri G, Vera C (2003) Antarctic oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America. Geophys Res Lett 30: 2115. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL018277.
37. Smith R et al (2010) The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual. Los Alamos National Lab Technical Report, p 141.
38. Son S-W, Polvani LM, Waugh DW, Akiyoshi H, Garcia R, Kinnison D, Pawson S, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K (2008) The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the southern hemisphere westerly jet. Science 320: 1486-1489. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1155939.
39. Son S-W, Tandon NF, Polvani LM, Waugh DW (2009) Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change. Geophys Res Lett 36: L15705. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL038671.
40. Son S-W, Gerber EP, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett N, CCMVal Coauthors (2010) The impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation changes: a multimodel assessment. J Geophys Res 115: D00M07. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD014271.
41. SPARC CCMVal (2010) SPARC CCMVal report on the evaluation of chemistry-climate models. In: Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh DW (eds) SPARC Report No 5, WCRP-X, WMO/TD-No. X. Available at http://www. atmosp. physics. utoronto. ca/SPARC.
42. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93: 485-498.
43. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Hegerl GC (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: trends. J Clim 13: 1018-1036.
44. Thompson DWJ, Solomon S (2002) Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296: 895-899.
45. Viglizzo E, Frank FC (2006) Ecological interactions, feedbacks, thresholds and collapses in the Argentine Pampas in response to climate and farming during the last century. Quat Int 158: 122-126.
46. WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (2011) Scientific assesment of ozone depletion: 2010. Global ozone research and monitoring project, Report No 52, Geneva, Switzerland, 516 pp.
47. Zhou J, Lau K (2001) Principal modes of interannual and decadal variability of summer rainfall over South America. Int J Climatol 21: 1623-1644.