Time-scale and state dependence of the carbon-cycle feedback to climate

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 42, Issue 7-8, 2014, Pages 1699-1713

  Willeit, Matteo ^a   Ganopolski, Andrey ^a   Dalmonech, Daniela ^b   Foley, Aideen M ^c   Feulner, Georg ^a  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR BIOGEOCHEMISTRY   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Carbon cycle; Carbon climate interaction; Feedbacks; Initial state dependence; Time scale dependence

Indexed keywords

CARBON CYCLE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE FEEDBACK; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

EID: 84897576198     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2102-z     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. 2 in geologic time. J Geophys Res 110(C9): C09S05. doi: 10. 1029/2004JC002625.
2. Arora VK, Boer GJ, Friedlingstein P, Eby M, Jones CD, Christian JR, Bonan G, Bopp L, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Hajima T, Ilyina T, Lindsay K, Tjiputra JF, Wu T (2013) Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 earth system models. J Clim 26(15): 5289-5314. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI-D-12-00494. 1.
3. Berthelot M, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Dufresne JL, Monfray P (2005) How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes. Glob Change Biol 11(6): 959-970. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2005. 00957. x.
4. Boer GJ, Arora V (2009) Temperature and concentration feedbacks in the carbon cycle. Geophys Res Lett 36(2). doi: 10. 1029/2008GL036220.
5. Bondeau A, Smith PC, Zaehle S, Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Cramer W, Gerten D, Lotze-Campen H, Müller C, Reichstein M, Smith B (2007) Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Glob Change Biol 13(3): 679-706. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2006. 01305. x.
6. Brovkin V, Ganopolski A, Svirezhev Y (1997) A continuous climate-vegetation classification for use in climate-biosphere studies. Ecol Model 101: 251-261.
7. Brovkin V, Bendtsen Jr, Claussen M, Ganopolski A, Kubatzki C, Petoukhov V, Andreev A (2002) Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate dynamics in the Holocene: experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 16(4): 86-1-86-20. doi: 10. 1029/2001GB001662.
8. 2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years. Glob Change Biol 10(8): 1253-1266. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2004. 00812. x.
9. 2 in response to changes in oceanic circulation and marine biogeochemistry. Paleoceanography 22(4). doi: 10. 1029/2006PA001380.
10. 2. Science (New York, NY) 321(5896): 1642-4. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1158907.
11. Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289(5477): 270-277. doi: 10. 1126/science. 289. 5477. 270.
12. 2 and satellite-based vegetation activity observations. Biogeosciences 10(6): 4189-4210. doi: 10. 5194/bg-10-4189-2013.
13. Falkowski P, Scholes RJ, Boyle E, Canadell J, Canfield D, Elser J, Gruber N, Hibbard K, Högberg P, Linder S, Mackenzie FT, Moore B, Pedersen T, Rosenthal Y, Seitzinger S, Smetacek V, Steffen W (2000) The global carbon cycle: a test of our knowledge of earth as a system. Science (New York, NY) 290(5490): 291-296.
14. FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC (2012) Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1. 2).
15. Foley A, Willeit M, Brovkin V, Feulner G, Friend A (2014) Quantifying the global carbon cycle response to volcanic stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing using Earth System Models. J Geophys Res Atmos 119: 101-111. doi: 10. 1002/2013JD019724.
16. Frank DC, Esper J, Raible CC, Büntgen U, Trouet V, Stocker B, Joos F (2010) Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. Nature 463(7280): 527-30. doi: 10. 1038/nature08769.
17. Friedlingstein P, Prentice I (2010) Carbon-climate feedbacks: a review of model and observation based estimates. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 2(4): 251-257. doi: 10. 1016/j. cosust. 2010. 06. 002.
18. Friedlingstein P, Dufresne J, Cox PM, Rayner P (2003) How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus B 55(2): 692-700. doi: 10. 1034/j. 1600-0889. 2003. 01461. x.
19. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler KG, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver AJ, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. J Clim 19(14): 3337-3353. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3800. 1.
20. Ganopolski A, Roche DM (2009) On the nature of lead-lag relationships during glacial-interglacial climate transitions. Quat Sci Rev 28(27-28): 3361-3378. doi: 10. 1016/j. quascirev. 2009. 09. 019.
21. Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S, Petoukhov V, Claussen M (1998) Simulation of modern and glacial climates with a coupled global model of intermediate complexity. Nature 391(6665): 351-356.
22. Ganopolski A, Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Eliseev A, Kubatzki C (2001) CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part II: model sensitivity. Clim Dyn 17(10): 735-751. doi: 10. 1007/s003820000144.
23. Gibbs HK (2006) Olsons major world ecosystem complexes ranked by carbon in live vegetation: an updated database using the GLC2000 land cover product. Available at: http://cdiac. ornl. gov/epubs/ndp/ndp017/ndp017b. html.
24. Gregory JM, Jones CD, Cadule P, Friedlingstein P (2009) Quantifying carbon cycle feedbacks. J Clim 22(19): 5232-5250. doi: 10. 1175/2009JCLI2949. 1.
25. Heimann M, Reichstein M (2008) Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks. Nature 451(7176): 289-92. doi: 10. 1038/nature06591.
26. 2 fertilisation. Biogeosciences 10(1): 339-355. doi: 10. 5194/bg-10-339-2013.
27. Horn JE, Schulz K (2011) Identification of a general light use efficiency model for gross primary production. Biogeosciences 8(4): 999-1021. doi: 10. 5194/bg-8-999-2011.
28. Ito A (2011) A historical meta-analysis of global terrestrial net primary productivity: are estimates converging? Glob Change Biol 17(10): 3161-3175. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2011. 02450. x.
29. Jansen E, Overpeck J, Briffa K, Duplessy JC, Joos F, Masson-Delmotte V, Olago D, Otto-Bliesner B, Peltier W, Rahmstorf S, Ramesh R, Raynaud D, Rind D, Solomina O, Villalba R, Zhang D (2007) Paleoclimate. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
30. Jouzel J (2003) Magnitude of isotope/temperature scaling for interpretation of central Antarctic ice cores. J Geophys Res 108(D12): 4361. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002677.
31. Keeling C, Whorf T, Wahlen M, Plicht J (1995) Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980. Nature 375: 666-670.
32. Laskar J, Robutel P, Joutel F, Gastineau M, Correia ACM, Levrard B (2004) A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astron Astrophys 428(1): 261-285. doi: 10. 1051/0004-6361: 20041335.
33. Lemoine DM (2010) Paleoclimatic warming increased carbon dioxide concentrations. J Geophys Res 115(D22): D22, 122. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD014725.
34. Lloyd J, Taylor J (1994) On the temperature dependence of soil respiration. Funct Ecol 8(3): 315-323.
35. Lüthi D, Le Floch M, Bereiter B, Blunier T, Barnola JM, Siegenthaler U, Raynaud D, Jouzel J, Fischer H, Kawamura K, Stocker TF (2008) High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650, 000-800, 000 years before present. Nature 453(7193): 379-82. doi: 10. 1038/nature06949.
36. Masson-Delmotte V, Kageyama M, Braconnot P, Charbit S, Krinner G, Ritz C, Guilyardi E, Jouzel J, Abe-Ouchi A, Crucifix M, Gladstone RM, Hewitt CD, Kitoh A, LeGrande AN, Marti O, Merkel U, Motoi T, Ohgaito R, Otto-Bliesner B, Peltier WR, Ross I, Valdes PJ, Vettoretti G, Weber SL, Wolk F, Yu Y (2005) Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints. Clim Dyn 26(5): 513-529. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-005-0081-9.
37. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6): 693-712. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1181.
38. Monnin E, Indermühle A, Dällenbach A, Flückiger J, Stauffer B, Stocker TF, Raynaud D, Barnola JM (2001) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination. Science (New York, NY) 291(5501): 112-4. doi: 10. 1126/science. 291. 5501. 112.
39. Müller C, Lucht W (2007) Robustness of terrestrial carbon and water cycle simulations against variations in spatial resolution. J Geophys Res 112(D6): D06, 105. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD007875.
40. Pépin L, Raynaud D, Barnola JM, Loutre MF (2001) Hemispheric roles of climate forcings during glacial-interglacial transitions as deduced from the Vostok record and LLN-2D model experiments. J Geophys Res Atmos 106(D23): 31, 885-31, 892. doi: 10. 1029/2001JD900117.
41. Petit J, Jouzel J, Raynaud D, Barkov N (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420, 000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436. doi: 10. 1038/20859.
42. Petoukhov V, Ganopolski A, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Eliseev A, Kubatzki C, Rahmstorf S (2000) CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate. Clim Dyn 16(1): 1-17. doi: 10. 1007/PL00007919.
43. Pongratz J, Reick CH, Raddatz T, Claussen M (2009) Effects of anthropogenic land cover change on the carbon cycle of the last millennium. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 23(4). doi. 10. 1029/2009GB003488.
44. Potter CS, Randerson JT, Field CB, Matson PA, Vitousek PM, Mooney HA, Klooster SA (1993) Terrestrial ecosystem production: a process model based on global satellite and surface data. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 7(4): 811-841. doi: 10. 1029/93GB02725.
45. Prentice I, Farquhar G, Fasham M, Goulden M, Heimann M, Jaramillo W, Kheshgi H, Le Quéré C, Scholes R, Wallace D, Al E (2001) The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide content. In: Houghton J, Ding Y, Al E (eds) Climate change 2001. The science basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
46. Rafelski LE, Piper SC, Keeling RF (2009) Climate effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last century. Tellus B 61(5): 718-731. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1600-0889. 2009. 00439. x.
47. Schaphoff S, Heyder U, Ostberg S, Gerten D, Heinke J, Lucht W (2013) Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget. Environ Res Lett 8(1): 014, 026. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026.
48. 2 concentration inferred from past climate change. Geophys Res Lett 33(10): 2-5. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL025044.
49. Schimel DS, Braswell BH, McKeown R, Ojima DS, Painter TH, Parton WJ, Townsend AR (1994) Climatic, edaphic, and biotic controls over storage and turnover of carbon in soils. Global Biogeochem Cycles 8(3): 279-293. doi: 10. 1029/94GB00993.
50. Schneider von Deimling T, Ganopolski A, Held H, Rahmstorf S (2006) How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum? Geophys Res Lett 33(14): L14, 709. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026484.
51. Shakun JD, Clark PU, He F, Sa Marcott, Mix AC, Liu Z, Otto-Bliesner B, Schmittner A, Bard E (2012) Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature 484(7392): 49-54. doi: 10. 1038/nature10915.
52. Shaver GR, Canadell J, Chapin SF III, Gurevitch J, Harte J, Henry G (2000) Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: a conceptual framework for analysis. BioScience 50(10): 871-882. doi: 10. 1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0871: GWATEA]2. 0. CO;2.
53. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Venevsky S (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Change Biol 9(2): 161-185. doi: 10. 1046/j. 1365-2486. 2003. 00569. x.
54. 2 and climate. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19(GB2013): doi: 10. 1029/2004GB002311.
55. Sitch S, Huntingford C, Gedney N, Levy PE, Lomas M, Piao SL, Betts R, Ciais P, Cox P, Friedlingstein P, Jones CD, Prentice IC, Woodward FI (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Glob Change Biol 14(9): 2015-2039. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2008. 01626. x.
56. Soden BJ, Held IM (2006) An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J Clim 19(14): 3354-3360. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3799. 1.
57. Steinhilber F, Abreu Ja, Beer J, Brunner I, Christl M, Fischer H, Heikkilä U, Kubik PW, Mann M, McCracken KG, Miller H, Miyahara H, Oerter H, Wilhelms F (2012) 9, 400 Years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(16): 5967-5971. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1118965109.
58. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4): 485-498. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-D-11-00094. 1.
59. Todd-Brown KEO, Randerson JT, Post WM, Hoffman FM, Tarnocai C, Schuur EAG, Allison SD (2013) Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations. Biogeosciences 10(3): 1717-1736. doi: 10. 5194/bg-10-1717-2013.
60. Torn MS, Harte J (2006) Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming. Geophys Res Lett 33(10). doi: 10. 1029/2005GL025540.
61. Willeit M, Ganopolski A, Feulner G (2014) Asymmetry and uncertainties in biogeophysical climate vegetation feedback over a range of CO2 forcings. Biogeosciences 11: 17-32. doi: 10. 5194/bg-11-17-2014.
62. Woodwell G, Mackenzie F, Houghton R, Apps M, Gorham E, Davidson E (1998) Biotic feedbacks in the warming of the earth. Clim Change 40: 495-518. doi: 10. 1023/A: 1005345429236.
63. Zhao M, Running SW (2010) Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009. Science (New York, NY) 329(5994): 940-943. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1192666.
64. Zickfeld K, Eby M, Matthews HD, Schmittner A, Weaver AJ (2011) Nonlinearity of carbon cycle feedbacks. J Clim 24(16): 4255-4275. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI3898. 1.
65. Zielinski GA (1995) Stratospheric loading and optical depth estimates of explosive volcanism over the last 2100 years derived from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core. J Geophys Res 100(D10): 20, 937. doi: 10. 1029/95JD01751.
66. Zielinski GA, Mershon GR (1997) Paleoenvironmental implications of the insoluble microparticle record in the GISP2 (Greenland) ice core during the rapidly changing climate of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Geol Soc Am Bull 109(5): 547-559. doi: 10. 1130/0016-7606(1997)109.