메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 71, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 1260-1275

Predictability and genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) examined through the EnKF assimilation of field observations collected during PREDICT

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EXPERIMENTS; HURRICANES;

EID: 84897435990     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: 15200469     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0291.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (42)
  • 1
    • 0000085181 scopus 로고
    • A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis
    • Barnes, S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
    • (1964) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.3 , pp. 396-409
    • Barnes, S.L.1
  • 2
    • 3042819335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study
    • Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1997: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2662-2682.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2662-2682
    • Bister, M.1    Emanuel, K.A.2
  • 3
    • 84861471107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale structural evolution of three tropical weather systems observed during PREDICT
    • Davis, C. A., and D. A. Ahijevych, 2012: Mesoscale structural evolution of three tropical weather systems observed during PREDICT. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 1284-1305.
    • (2012) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.69 , pp. 1284-1305
    • Davis, C.A.1    Ahijevych, D.A.2
  • 4
    • 0024921060 scopus 로고
    • Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model
    • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077-3107.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 3077-3107
    • Dudhia, J.1
  • 5
    • 72449180608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves
    • Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2009: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5587-5646.
    • (2009) Atmos. Chem. Phys. , vol.9 , pp. 5587-5646
    • Dunkerton, T.J.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Wang, Z.3
  • 6
    • 0028193070 scopus 로고
    • Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics
    • (C5)
    • Evensen, G., 1994: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res., 99 (C5), 10 143-10 162.
    • (1994) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.99 , pp. 10143-10162
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 7
    • 77953327395 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial development and genesis of Hurricane Dolly (2008)
    • Fang, J., and F. Zhang, 2010: Initial development and genesis of Hurricane Dolly (2008). J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 655-672.
    • (2010) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.67 , pp. 655-672
    • Fang, J.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 8
    • 78651070017 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolution of multiscale vortices in the development of Hurricane Dolly (2008)
    • Fang, J., and F. Zhang, 2011: Evolution of multiscale vortices in the development of Hurricane Dolly (2008). J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 103-122.
    • (2011) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.68 , pp. 103-122
    • Fang, J.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 9
    • 0033023511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions
    • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723-757.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 723-757
    • Gaspari, G.1    Cohn, S.E.2
  • 10
    • 35348886714 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NASA's Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment: Investigating tropical cyclogenesis and hurricane intensity change
    • Coauthors
    • Halverson, J., and Coauthors, 2007: NASA's Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment: Investigating tropical cyclogenesis and hurricane intensity change. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 867-882.
    • (2007) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.88 , pp. 867-882
    • Halverson, J.1
  • 11
    • 3042778358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of vortical hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diane (1984)
    • Hendricks, E. A., M. T. Montgomery, and C. A. Davis, 2004: The role of vortical hot towers in the formation of Tropical Cyclone Diane (1984). J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1209-1232.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.61 , pp. 1209-1232
    • Hendricks, E.A.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Davis, C.A.3
  • 12
    • 1842587750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of cloud and precipitation
    • Hong, S.-Y., J. Dudhia, and S.-H. Chen, 2004: A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of cloud and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 103-120.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 103-120
    • Hong, S.-Y.1    Dudhia, J.2    Chen, S.-H.3
  • 13
    • 84897443808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of the GFDL vortex tracker
    • cited
    • Marchok, T., cited 2010: Use of the GFDL vortex tracker. [Available online at http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/docs/presentations/tutorial02222010/tracker_slides.pdf.]
    • (2010)
    • Marchok, T.1
  • 14
    • 84897399805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diurnal radiation cycle impact on the pregenesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)
    • in press
    • Melhauser, C., and F. Zhang, 2014: Diurnal radiation cycle impact on the pregenesis of Hurricane Karl (2010). J. Atmos. Sci., in press.
    • (2014) J. Atmos. Sci.
    • Melhauser, C.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 15
    • 44449094042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part III: Comparison with 3DVAR in a real-data case study
    • Meng, Z., and F. Zhang, 2008a: Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part III: Comparison with 3DVAR in a real-data case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 522-540.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 522-540
    • Meng, Z.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 16
    • 57149138884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part VI: Performance over a warm season month of June 2003
    • Meng, Z., and F. Zhang, 2008b: Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part VI: Performance over a warm season month of June 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3671-3682.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3671-3682
    • Meng, Z.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 17
    • 0000453046 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
    • (D14)
    • Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), 16 663-16 682.
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , pp. 16663-16682
    • Mlawer, E.J.1    Taubman, S.J.2    Brown, P.D.3    Iacono, M.J.4    Clough, S.A.5
  • 18
    • 0001207158 scopus 로고
    • Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere
    • Monin, A. S., and A. M. Obukhov, 1954: Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere. Tr. Geofiz. Inst., Akad. Nauk SSSR, 24, 163-187.
    • (1954) Tr. Geofiz. Inst., Akad. Nauk SSSR , vol.24 , pp. 163-187
    • Monin, A.S.1    Obukhov, A.M.2
  • 20
    • 84863116363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment
    • Coauthors
    • Montgomery, M. T., and Coauthors, 2012: The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 153-172.
    • (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.93 , pp. 153-172
    • Montgomery, M.T.1
  • 21
    • 84883774278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability and dynamics of a nonintensifying tropical storm: Erica (2009)
    • Munsell, E. B., F. Zhang, and D. P. Stern, 2013: Predictability and dynamics of a nonintensifying tropical storm: Erica (2009). J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1849-1873.
    • (2013) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.70 , pp. 1849-1873
    • Munsell, E.B.1    Zhang, F.2    Stern, D.P.3
  • 22
    • 0037408693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data
    • Noh, Y., W.-G. Cheon, and S.-Y. Hong, 2003: Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 107, 401-427.
    • (2003) Bound.-Layer Meteor. , vol.107 , pp. 401-427
    • Noh, Y.1    Cheon, W.-G.2    Hong, S.-Y.3
  • 23
    • 84874961580 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclogenesis in wind shear: Climatological relationships and physical processes
    • K. Oouchi and H. Fudeyasu, Eds., Nova Science Publishers
    • Nolan, D. S., and M. G. McGauley, 2012: Tropical cyclogenesis in wind shear: Climatological relationships and physical processes. Cyclones: Formation, Triggers and Control, K. Oouchi and H. Fudeyasu, Eds., Nova Science Publishers, 1-34.
    • (2012) Cyclones: Formation, Triggers and Control , pp. 1-34
    • Nolan, D.S.1    McGauley, M.G.2
  • 24
    • 0027040023 scopus 로고
    • The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system
    • Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The National Meteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.120 , pp. 1747-1763
    • Parrish, D.F.1    Derber, J.C.2
  • 25
    • 84897409908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of sampling errors on the EnKF assimilation of inner-core hurricane observations
    • Poterjoy, J., F. Zhang, and T. Weng, 2014: The effects of sampling errors on the EnKF assimilation of inner-core hurricane observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1609-1630.
    • (2014) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.142 , pp. 1609-1630
    • Poterjoy, J.1    Zhang, F.2    Weng, T.3
  • 26
    • 84861464574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of vertical shear orientation on tropical cyclogenesis
    • Rappin, E. D., and D. S. Nolan, 2012: The effect of vertical shear orientation on tropical cyclogenesis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1035-1054.
    • (2012) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.138 , pp. 1035-1054
    • Rappin, E.D.1    Nolan, D.S.2
  • 27
    • 27744553245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale observations of the genesis of Hurricane Dolly (1996)
    • Reasor, P. D., M. T. Montgomery, and L. F. Bosart, 2005: Mesoscale observations of the genesis of Hurricane Dolly (1996). J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3151-3171.
    • (2005) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.62 , pp. 3151-3171
    • Reasor, P.D.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Bosart, L.F.3
  • 28
    • 0001332803 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale interactions during the formation of Typhoon Irving
    • Ritchie, E. A., and G. J. Holland, 1997: Scale interactions during the formation of Typhoon Irving. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1377-1396.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 1377-1396
    • Ritchie, E.A.1    Holland, G.J.2
  • 29
    • 0036321643 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A theory for the vertical alignment of a quasigeostrophic vortex
    • Schecter, D. A., M. T. Montgomery, and P. D. Reasor, 2002: A theory for the vertical alignment of a quasigeostrophic vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 150-168.
    • (2002) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.59 , pp. 150-168
    • Schecter, D.A.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Reasor, P.D.3
  • 31
    • 58049120795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis
    • Sippel, J. A., and F. Zhang, 2008: A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3440-3459.
    • (2008) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.65 , pp. 3440-3459
    • Sippel, J.A.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 32
    • 77953338131 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007)
    • Sippel, J. A., and F. Zhang, 2010: Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007). J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1759-1778.
    • (2010) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.67 , pp. 1759-1778
    • Sippel, J.A.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 33
    • 72049128136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3
    • Coauthors, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR
    • Skamarock, W. C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR, 113 pp. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3_bw.pdf.]
    • (2008) , pp. 113
    • Skamarock, W.C.1
  • 34
    • 84897421150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone report Hurricane Karl (AL1312010) 14-18 September 2010
    • National Hurricane Center Tech. Rep.
    • Stewart, S. R., 2010: Tropical cyclone report Hurricane Karl (AL1312010) 14-18 September 2010. National Hurricane Center Tech. Rep., 17 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL132010_Karl.pdf.]
    • (2010) , pp. 17
    • Stewart, S.R.1
  • 35
    • 84874898238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of vortex and environmental errors in genesis forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)
    • Torn, R. D., and D. Cook, 2013: The role of vortex and environmental errors in genesis forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 232-251.
    • (2013) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.141 , pp. 232-251
    • Torn, R.D.1    Cook, D.2
  • 36
    • 84861549558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Afirst look at the structure of the wave pouch during the 2009 PREDICT-GRIP dry runs of the Atlantic
    • Wang, Z., M. T. Montgomery, and C. Fritz, 2012: Afirst look at the structure of the wave pouch during the 2009 PREDICT-GRIP dry runs of the Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1144-1163.
    • (2012) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.140 , pp. 1144-1163
    • Wang, Z.1    Montgomery, M.T.2    Fritz, C.3
  • 37
    • 84863229684 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter for convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction: Katrina (2005)
    • Weng, Y., and F. Zhang, 2012: Assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter for convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction: Katrina (2005). Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 841-859.
    • (2012) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.140 , pp. 841-859
    • Weng, Y.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 38
    • 0036646009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations
    • Whitaker, J. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2002: Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1913-1924.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1913-1924
    • Whitaker, J.S.1    Hamill, T.M.2
  • 39
    • 84874905605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones
    • Zhang, F., and D. Tao, 2013: Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 975-983.
    • (2013) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.70 , pp. 975-983
    • Zhang, F.1    Tao, D.2
  • 40
    • 2442717392 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of initial estimate and observation availability on convective-scale data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter
    • Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and J. Sun, 2004: Impacts of initial estimate and observation availability on convective-scale data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1238-1253.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 1238-1253
    • Zhang, F.1    Snyder, C.2    Sun, J.3
  • 41
    • 68249160487 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cloud-resolving hurricane initialization and prediction through assimilation of Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter
    • Zhang, F., Y. Weng, J. A. Sippel, Z. Meng, and C. H. Bishop, 2009: Cloud-resolving hurricane initialization and prediction through assimilation of Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2105-2125.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 2105-2125
    • Zhang, F.1    Weng, Y.2    Sippel, J.A.3    Meng, Z.4    Bishop, C.H.5
  • 42
    • 80051707088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performance of convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008-2010 with ensemble data assimilation of innercore airborne Doppler radar observations
    • doi:10.1029/2011GL048469
    • Zhang, F., J. F. G. Y. Weng, and F. D. Marks, 2011: Performance of convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008-2010 with ensemble data assimilation of innercore airborne Doppler radar observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15810, doi:10.1029/2011GL048469.
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38
    • Zhang, F.1    Weng, J.F.G.Y.2    Marks, F.D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.