Analysis of low-frequency precipitation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations for southwestern North America

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2735-2756

  Langford, Sally ^a   Stevenson, Samantha ^b   Noone, David ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; DROUGHT; EVAPORATIVE COOLING SYSTEMS; FORECASTING; SOIL MOISTURE;

COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HISTORICAL SIMULATION; MONSOON PRECIPITATION; PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES; PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES; SUMMER PRECIPITATION;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELING; DECADAL VARIATION; DROUGHT; GLOBAL CLIMATE; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SOIL MOISTURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY;

CALIFORNIA; NEVADA; OKLAHOMA [UNITED STATES]; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); TEXAS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84896982861     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00317.1     Document Type: Article

References (126)

1. Adams, D., and A. Comrie, 1997: The North American monsoon. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2197-2213, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(1997)078,2197:TNAM.2.0.CO;2.
2. Alexander, M., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. Lanzante, N.-C. Lau, and J. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15, 2205-2231, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015,2205: TABTIO.2.0.CO;2.
3. Anderson, B., G. Salvucci, A. Ruane, J. Roads, and M. Kanamitsu, 2008:Anew metric for estimating the influence of evaporation on seasonal precipitation rates. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 576-588, doi:10.1175/2007JHM968.1.
4. Ault, T., J. Cole, J. Overpeck, G. Pederson, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. Woodhouse, and C. Deser, 2013a: The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. J. Climate, 26, 5863-5878, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-11-00732.1.
5. Ault, T., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay, 2013b: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3450-3456, doi:10.1002/grl.50647.
6. Barlow, M., S. Nigam, and E. Berbery, 2001: ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and U.S. summertime precipitation, drought, and stream flow. J. Climate, 14, 2105-2128, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2001)014,2105:EPDVAU.2.0.CO;2.
7. Barsugli, J., and D. Battisti, 1998: The basic effects of atmospheric-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 477-493, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055,0477: TBEOAO.2.0.CO;2.
8. Beck, C., J. Grieser, and B. Rudolf, 2005: A new monthly precipitation climatology for the global land areas for the period 1951 to 2000. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Abstract 07154. [Available online at ftp://ftp-anon.dwd.de/pub/data/ gpcc/PDF/pdf_28_precipitation.pdf.]
9. Becker,A., P. Finger, A.Meyer-Christoffer, B. Rudolf, K. Schamm, U. Schneider, and M. Ziese, 2013: A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 71-99, doi:10.5194/essd-5-71-2013.
10. Bellouin, N., O. Boucher, J. Haywood, C. Johnson, A. Jones, J. Rae, and S. Woodward, 2007: Improved representation of aerosols for HadGEM2. Hadley Centre Tech. Note 73, 42 pp.
11. Bentsen, M., and Coauthors, 2012: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 5, 2843-2931, doi:10.5194/ gmdd-5-2843-2012.
12. Branstator, G., and H. Teng, 2012: Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051974.
13. Capotondi, A., and M. Alexander, 2010: Relationship between precipitation in the Great Plains of the United States and global SSTs: Insights from the IPCC AR4 models. J. Climate, 23, 2941-2958, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3291.1.
14. Cayan, D., T. Das, D. Pierce, T. Barnett, M. Tyree, and A. Gershunov, 2010: Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proc.Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 21 271-21 276, doi:10.1073/pnas.0912391107.
15. Christensen, N., and D. Lettenmaier, 2007: A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1417-1434, doi:10.5194/ hess-11-1417-2007.
16. Cole, J., J. Overpeck, and E. Cook, 2002: Multiyear La Ni~na events and persistent drought in the contiguous United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (13), doi:10.1029/2001GL013561.
17. Collier, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 atmosphere-ocean GCM: Participation in CMIP5 and data publication. Extended Abstracts, 19th Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, CSIRO, 2691-2697.
18. Collins, M., S. Tett, and C. Cooper, 2001: The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 17, 61-81, doi:10.1007/s003820000094.
19. Collins, W. J., and Coauthors, 2008: Evaluation of the HadGEM2 model. Hadley Centre Tech. Note 74, 47 pp.
20. Collins, W. J., and Coauthors, 2011: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model-HadGEM2. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 4, 997-1062, doi:10.5194/gmdd-4-997-2011.
21. Compo, G., J. Whitaker, and P. Sardeshmukh, 2006: Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 175-190, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-2-175.
22. Compo, G., and Coauthors, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/ qj.776.
23. Conil, S., H. Douville, and S. Tyteca, 2007: The relative influence of soil moisture and SST in climate predictability explored within ensembles of AMIP type experiments. Climate Dyn., 28, 125-145, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0172-2.
24. Cook, B., E. Cook, K. Anchukaitis, R. Seager, and R. Miller, 2011: Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials. Climate Dyn., 37, 1097-1110, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0897-9.
25. Cook, E., C. Woodhouse, C. Eakin, D. Meko, and D. Stahle, 2004: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science, 306, 1015-1018, doi:10.1126/science.1102586.
26. Deser, C., and M. Blackmon, 1995: On the relationship between tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations. J. Climate, 8, 1677-1680, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008,1677: OTRBTA.2.0.CO;2.
27. Douglas, M., R. Maddox, K. Howard, and S. Reyes, 1993: The Mexican monsoon. J. Climate, 6, 1665-1677, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1993)006,1665:TMM.2.0.CO;2.
28. Eltahir, E., 1998: A soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism: 1. Theory and observations. Water Resour. Res., 34, 765-776, doi:10.1029/97WR03499.
29. Entekhabi, D., I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, and R. Bras, 1992: Variability in large-scale water balance with land surface-atmosphere interaction. J. Climate, 5, 798-813, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1992)005,0798:VILSWB.2.0.CO;2.
30. Feng, S., Q. Hu, and R. Oglesby, 2011: Influence of Atlantic sea surface temperatures on persistent drought in North America. Climate Dyn., 37, 569-586, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0835-x.
31. Frankignoul, C., and N. Sennéchael, 2007: Observed influence of North Pacific SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 20, 592-606, doi:10.1175/JCLI4021.1.
32. Gan, B., and L. Wu, 2013: Seasonal and long-term coupling between wintertime storm tracks and sea surface temperature in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 26, 6123-6136, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-12-00724.1.
33. Gershunov, G., and T. Barnett, 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2715-2725, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079,2715:IMOET.2.0.CO;2.
34. Goddard, L., and Coauthors, 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments. Climate Dyn., 40, 245-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2.
35. Griffin, D., and Coauthors, 2013: North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 954-958, doi:10.1002/grl.50184.
36. Gutzler, D., 2000: Covariability of spring snowpack and summer rainfall across the southwest United States. J. Climate, 13, 4018-4027, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,4018: COSSAS.2.0.CO;2.
37. Gutzler, D., and J. Preston, 1997: Evidence for a relationship between spring snow cover in North America and summer rainfall in New Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2207-2210, doi:10.1029/97GL02099.
38. Hales, J. J., 1972: Surges of maritime tropical air northward over theGulf ofCalifornia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, 298-306, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(1972)100,0298:SOMTAN.2.3.CO;2.
39. Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/ science.213.4511.957.
40. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30 997-31 022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.
41. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23 947-23 963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.
42. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
43. Hibbard, K., G. Meehl, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein, 2007: A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 88, 217-221, doi:10.1029/ 2007EO200002.
44. Higgins, R., and W. Shi, 2000: Dominant factors responsible for interannual variability of the summer monsoon in the southwestern United States. J. Climate, 13, 759-776, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2000)013,0759:DFRFIV.2.0.CO;2.
45. Higgins, R., Y. Yao, and X. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. J.Climate, 10, 2600-2622, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010,2600: IOTNAM.2.0.CO;2.
46. Higgins, R., K. Mo, and Y. Yao, 1998: Interannual variability of the U.S. summer precipitation regime with emphasis on the southwestern monsoon. J. Climate, 11, 2582-2606, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1998)011,2582:IVOTUS.2.0.CO;2.
47. Hoerling, M., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299, 691-694, doi:10.1126/science.1079053.
48. Hoerling, M., X.-W. Quan, and J. Eischeid, 2009: Distinct causes for two principal U.S. droughts of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19708, doi:10.1029/2009GL039860.
49. Hoerling, M., and Coauthors, 2011: On North American decadal climate for 2011-20. J. Climate, 24, 4519-4528, doi:10.1175/ 2011JCLI4137.1.
50. Hunt, B., 2011: Global characteristics of pluvial and dry multi-year episodes with emphasis on megadroughts. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1425-1439, doi:10.1002/joc.2166.
51. Hurrell, J., M. Visbeck, and A. Pirani, Eds., 2011: WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges, No. 16, International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton, United Kingdom, 52 pp. [Available online at http://www.clivar.org/publications/exchanges/Exchanges_56.pdf.]
52. Iversen, T., and Coauthors, 2012: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections. Geosci.Model Dev. Discuss., 5, 2933-2998, doi:10.5194/gmdd-5-2933-2012.
53. Jamison, N., and S. Kravtsov, 2010: Decadal variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature in observations and CMIP3 simulations. J. Climate, 23, 4619-4636, doi:10.1175/ 2010JCLI3598.1.
54. Jia, L., and T. DelSole, 2012: Multi-year predictability of temperature and precipitation in multiple climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17705, doi:10.1029/2012GL052778.
55. Johns, T., and Coauthors, 2006: The new Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of coupled simulations. J. Climate, 19, 1327-1353, doi:10.1175/JCLI3712.1.
56. Jones, C., and Coauthors, 2011: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543-570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011.
57. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate predictions in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921.
58. Koster,R., M. Suarez, andM.Heiser, 2000:Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 1, 26-46, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001,0026: VAPOPA.2.0.CO;2.
59. Koster,R., and Coauthors, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138-1140, doi:10.1126/science.1100217.
60. Kumar, A., M. Chen, M. Hoerling, and J. Eischeid, 2013: Do extreme events require extreme forcings?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3440-3445, doi:10.1002/grl.50657.
61. Kushnir, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik, and J. Nakamura, 2010: Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J. Climate, 23, 5610-5628, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3172.1.
62. Lau, N.-C., 1997: Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 21-33, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078,0021: IBGSAA.2.0.CO;2.
63. Liu, H., C. Wang, S.-K. Lee, and D. Enfield, 2013: Atlantic warm pool variability in the CMIP5 simulations. J. Climate, 26, 5315-5336, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00556.1.
64. Liu, Q., N. Wen, and Z. Liu, 2006: An observational study of the impact of the North Pacific SST on the atmosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18611, doi:10.1029/2006GL026082.
65. Lo, F., and M. Clark, 2002: Relationships between spring snow mass and summer precipitation in the southwestern United States associated with the North American monsoon system. J. Climate, 15, 1378-1385, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015,1378: RBSSMA.2.0.CO;2.
66. Marsland, S., H. Haak, J. Jungclaus, M. Latif, and F. Röoske, 2003: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modell., 5, 91-127, doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X.
67. Martin, G., and Coauthors, 2011: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 723-757, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011.
68. Matsui, T., V. Lakshmi, and E. Small, 2003: Links between snow cover, surface skin temperature, and rainfall variability in the North American monsoon system. J. Climate, 16, 1821-1829, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016,1821:LBSCSS.2.0.CO;2.
69. McCabe, G., M. Palecki, and J. Betancourt, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 4136-4141, doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101.
70. Meehl, G., and A. Hu, 2006: Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multidecadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 19, 1605-1623, doi:10.1175/JCLI3675.1.
71. Meehl, G., and Coauthors, 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1467-1485, doi:10.1175/ 2009BAMS2778.1.
72. Mo, K., and J. Paegle, 2000: Influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the precipitation regimes over the southwest United States. J. Climate, 13, 3588-3598, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2000)013,3588:IOSSTA.2.0.CO;2.
73. Mo, K., and H.-M. Juang, 2003: Relationships between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8610, doi:10.1029/2002JD002952.
74. Mo, K., J. Paegle, and R. Higgins, 1997: Atmospheric processes associated with summer floods and droughts in the central United States. J. Climate, 10, 3028-3046, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010,3028:APAWSF.2.0.CO;2.
75. Mo, K., J.-K. Schemm, and S.-H. Yoo, 2009: Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on drought over the United States. J. Climate, 22, 5962-5982, doi:10.1175/ 2009JCLI2966.1.
76. Notaro, M., and A. Zarrin, 2011: Sensitivity of the North American monsoon to antecedent Rocky Mountain snowpack. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17403, doi:10.1029/2011GL048803.
77. Oglesby, R., and D. Erickson, 1989: Soil moisture and the persistence of North American drought. J. Climate, 2, 1362-1380, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002,1362:SMATPO.2.0.CO;2.
78. Pierce, D., 2002: The role of sea surface temperatures in interactions between ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation. J. Climate, 15, 1295-1308, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015,1295: TROSST.2.0.CO;2.
79. Polade, S., A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, M. Dettinger, and D. Pierce, 2013: Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2296-2301, doi:10.1002/grl.50491.
80. Raddatz, T., and Coauthors, 2007: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century? Climate Dyn., 29, 565-574, doi:10.1007/ s00382-007-0247-8.
81. Richter, I., S.-P. Xie, S. Behera, T. Doi, and Y. Masumoto, 2014: Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 42, 171-188, doi:10.1007/ s00382-012-1624-5.
82. Rotstayn, L., M. Collier, M. Dix, Y. Feng, H. Gordon, S. O'Farrell, I. Smith, and J. Syktus, 2010: Improved simulation of Australian climate and ENSO-related rainfall variability in a global climate model with an interactive aerosol treatment. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1067-1088, doi:10.1002/joc.1952.
83. Rudolf, B., and U. Schneider, 2005: Calculation of gridded precipitation data for the global land-surface using in-situ gauge observations. Proc. Second Workshop of the Int. Precipitation Working Group, Monterey, CA, IPWG, 231-247.
84. Rudolf, B., H. Hauschild, W. Rueth, and U. Schneider, 1994: Terrestrial precipitation analysis: Operational method and required density of point measurements. Global Precipitations and Climate Change, M. Desbois and F. Désalmand, Eds., Springer, 173-186, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-79268-7_10.
85. Rudolf, B., T. Fuchs, U. Schneider, and A. Meyer-Christoffer, 2003: Introduction of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC).GPCCRep., 16 pp. [Available online at gpcc.dwd.de.]
86. Rudolf, B., C. Beck, J. Grieser, and U. Schneider, 2005: Global precipitation analysis products. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), DWD Rep., 8 pp.
87. Sakamoto, T., and Coauthors, 2012: MIROC4h-A new highresolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulationmodel. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 325-359, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-301.
88. Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, M. Ziese, and B. Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15-40, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.
89. Schubert, S., M. Suarez, P. Pegion, R. Koster, and J. Bacmeister, 2004a: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 303, 1855-1859, doi:10.1126/science.1095048.
90. Schubert, S., M. Suarez, P. Pegion, R. Koster, and J. Bacmeister, 2004b: Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 17, 485-503, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017,0485:COLDIT.2.0.CO;2.
91. Schubert, S., M. Suarez, P. Pegion, R. Koster, and J. Bacmeister, 2008: Potential predictability of long-term drought and pluvial conditions in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 21, 802-816, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1741.1.
92. Schubert, S., and Coauthors, 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to droughtrelated SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1.
93. Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. J. Climate, 18, 4065-4088, doi:10.1175/JCLI3522.1.
94. Seager, R., and Coauthors, 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316, 1181-1184, doi:10.1126/science.1139601.
95. Seager, R., N. Naik, M. Ting, M. Cane, N. Harnik, and Y. Kushnir, 2010: Adjustment of the atmospheric circulation to tropical Pacific SST anomalies: Variability of transient eddy propagation in the Pacific-North America sector. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 277-296.
96. Sheppard, P., A. Comrie, G. Packin, K. Angersbach, and M. Hughes, 2002: The climate of the US Southwest. Climate Res., 21, 219-238, doi:10.3354/cr021219.
97. Small, E., 2001: The influence of soil moisture anomalies on variability of the North American monsoon system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 139-142, doi:10.1029/2000GL011652.
98. Smith, D., S. Cusack, A. Colman, C. Folland, G. Harris, and J. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science.1139540.
99. Smith, D.,R.Eade,N.Dunstone,D. Fereday, J.Murphy,H. Pohlmann, and A. Scaife, 2010: Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci., 3, 846-849, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.
100. Stahle, D., F. Fye, E. Cook, and R. Griffin, 2007: Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since A.D. 1300. Climatic Change, 83, 133-149, doi:10.1007/ s10584-006-9171-x.
101. Stine, S., 1994: Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time. Nature, 369, 546-549, doi:10.1038/369546a0.
102. Swetnam, T., and J. Betancourt, 1998: Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. J. Climate, 11, 3128-3147, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1998)011,3128:MDAERT.2.0.CO;2.
103. Syktus, J., and Coauthors, 2011: The CSIRO-QCCCE contribution to CMIP5 using the CSIRO Mk3.6 climate model. Extended Abstracts, 19th Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2782-2788.
104. Tatebe, H., and Coauthors, 2012: The initialization of the MIROC climate models with hydrographic data assimilation for decadal prediction. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 275-294, doi:10.2151/ jmsj.2012-A14.
105. Taylor, K., R. Stouffer, and G. Meehl, 2012:An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
106. Ting, M., and H. Wang, 1997: Summertime U.S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific sea surface temperature. J.Climate, 10, 1853-1873, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010,1853: SUSPVA.2.0.CO;2.
107. Trenberth, K., and C. Guillemot, 1996: Physical processes involved in the 1988 drought and 1993 floods in North America. J. Climate, 9, 1288-1298, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009,1288: PPIITD.2.0.CO;2.
108. Trenberth, K., G. Branstator, and P. Arkin, 1988: Origins of the 1988 North American drought. Science, 242, 1640-1645, doi:10.1126/ science.242.4886.1640.
109. Uppala, S., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176.
110. Vera, C., and Coauthors, 2006: Towards a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J. Climate, 19, 4977-5000, doi:10.1175/JCLI3896.1.
111. Voldoire, A., and Coauthors, 2013: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: Description and basic evaluation. Climate Dyn., 40, 2091-2121, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y.
112. Volodin, E., N. Dianskii, and A. Gusev, 2010: Simulating presentday climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 46, 414-431, doi:10.1134/S000143381004002X.
113. Wang, H., and M. Ting, 2000: Covariabilities of winter U.S precipitation and Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Climate, 13, 3711-3719, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,3711: COWUSP.2.0.CO;2.
114. Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1.
115. Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2011: MIROC-ESM: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845-872, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011.
116. Whitaker, J., G. Compo, X. Wei, and T. Hamill, 2004: Reanalysis without radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1190-1200, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(2004)132,1190:RWRUED.2.0.CO;2.
117. Woodhouse, C., and J. Overpeck, 1998: 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2693-2714, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079,2693: YODVIT.2.0.CO;2.
118. Woodhouse, C., S. Gray, and D. Meko, 2006: Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River basin. Water Resour. Res., 42, W05415, doi:10.1029/2005WR004455.
119. Wu,W., and R. Dickinson, 2004: Time scales of layered soil moisture memory in the context of land-atmosphere interaction. J. Climate, 17, 2752-2764, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017,2752: TSOLSM.2.0.CO;2.
120. Xie, P., and P. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite measurements, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078,2539: GPAYMA.2.0.CO;2.
121. Xin, X., T. Wu, J. Li, Z. Wang, W. Li, and F. Wu, 2013: How well does BCC-CSM1.1 reproduce the 20th century climate change over China? Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 6, 21-26.
122. Yu, B., and F. Zwiers, 2007: The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: A 1,000-year climate modeling study. Climate Dyn., 29, 837-851, doi:10.1007/ s00382-007-0267-4.
123. Yu, B., A. Shabbar, and F. Zwiers, 2007: Enhanced PNAlike climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability. J. Climate, 20, 5285-5300, doi:10.1175/ 2007JCLI1480.1.
124. Yukimoto, S., and Coauthors, 2011: Meteorological Research Institute-Earth SystemModel version 1 (MRI-ESM1)-Model description. MRI Tech. Rep. 64, 70 pp. [Available online at http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_64/index_en.html.]
125. Zhang, Y., J. Wallace, and D. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010,1004:ELIV.2.0.CO;2.
126. Zhu, C., D. Lettenmaier, and T. Cavazos, 2005: Role of antecedent land surface conditions on North American monsoon rainfall variability. J. Climate, 18, 3104-3121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3387.1.