China's Economy: Complacency, Crisis & the Challenge of Reform

Daedalus

Volumn 143, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 14-25

  Naughton, Barry ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84896974062     PISSN: 00115266     EISSN: 15486192     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1162/DAED_a_00269     Document Type: Article

References (9)

1. National income, expenditure, and fiscal data in this paper, including those used in Figures 1 and 2, are Chinese official data, updated most recently with the National Bureau of Statistics, Zhongguo Tongji Zhaiyao 2013 [China Statistical Abstract 2013] (Beijing: Zhongguo Tongji, 2013). gdp from the production and expenditure side, see p. 19, 33-35; fiscal data, see p. 72-73.
2. Wu Jinglian, Toward a Renewal of Reform, in Wu Jinglian: Voice of Reform in China, ed. Barry Naughton (Cambridge, Mass.: mit Press, 2013), 12. Wu is quoting his close friend Zhang Zhuoyuan.
3. Li Keqiang's remarks reported in Du Yongtao, Fu Yingnan, Wei Xi, and Liu Yang, Li Keqiang Emphasizes that the Biggest Dividend that China Enjoys is the Reform Dividend (in Chinese), People's Daily Online, November 22, 2012, http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2012/1122/c1004-19667962.html.
4. Chinese currency values have been converted to U.S. dollars at prevailing exchange rates, and deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
5. Daisuke Wakabayashi and Min-jeong Lee, Samsung's 'Good' Problem: A Growing Cash Pile, The Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323798104578454440307100754.html.
6. Migrant wages from Feng Lu, Consolidation or Stimulation? Remarks on China's macroeconomic situation and policy, U.S.-China Economics Dialogue, Beijing, June 19, 2013. For a good collection of academic articles on the Lewis turning point, see the 2011 special issue of China Economic Review, especially the article by the leading proponents of this view
7. Cai Fang and Du Yang, Wage Increases, Wage Convergence, and the Lewis Turning Point in China, China Economic Review 22 (4) (2011): 601-610. The empirical evidence in favor of the Lewis theory in other developing economies is mixed, but China fits many of the Lewis model's predictions. Moreover, China has unique institutions that make the basic Lewis assumption of surplus rural labor more plausible, including collective land ownership and institutional barriers that retard rural-to-urban migration.
8. Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, Resolution on Several Important Issues on Comprehensively Deepening Reform (in Chinese), November 12, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-11/15/c_118164235.htm.
9. Xi Jinping emphasizes his personal role in Xi Jinping, An Explanation of the 'Resolution on Several Important Issues on Comprehensively Deepening Reform' (in Chinese), November 15, 2013, http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2013/1115/c1001-23559327.html. As of mid-December 2013, there is still no official English translation of the Third Plenum resolution.