Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 775-786

  Yang, L ^a   Tian, F ^a   Sun, Y ^a   Yuan, X ^b   Hu, H ^a  

^a TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b Princeton University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; DIMENSIONLESS PARAMETERS; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; HYDROLOGIC MODELING; INITIAL CONDITIONS; STREAMFLOW FORECAST; STREAMFLOW PREDICTION; TRANSITION PERIOD;

CALIBRATION; DROUGHT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FORECASTING;

CALIBRATION; FUTURE PROSPECT; HINDCASTING; MODEL TEST; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; STREAMFLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER STORAGE;

EID: 84896813949     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-775-2014     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Beven, K.: Changing Ideas in Hydrology-The Case of Physically-Based Models, J. Hydrol., 105, 157-172, 1989.
2. Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279-298, 1992.
3. Day, G.: Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 111, 157-170, 1985. (Pubitemid 15479708)
4. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, T.: A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, evolutionary computation, IEEE Trans., 6, 182-197, doi:10.1109/4235.996017, 2002. (Pubitemid 34555372)
5. Demirel, M. C., Booij, M. J., and Hoekstra, A. Y.: Effect of different uncertainty sources on the skill of 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts for two hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4035-4053, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20294, 2013.
6. Guo, S., Guo, J., Zhang, J., and Chen, H.: VIC distributed hydro-logical model to predict climate change impact in the Hanjiang basin, Sci. China Ser. E, 52, 3234-3239, 2009.
7. Hamlet, A. and Lettenmaier, D.: Columbia river streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals, J. Water Re-sour. Plann. Manage., 125, 333-341, 1999. (Pubitemid 30068006)
8. Hashino, T., Bradley, A. A., and Schwartz, S. S.: Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 939-950, doi:10.5194/hess-11-939-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 46346814)
9. Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., and Volinsky, C. T.: Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial, Stat. Sci., 14, 382-401, 1999.
10. Kang, T. H., Kim, Y. O., and Hong, I. P.: Comparison of pre-and post-processors for ensemble streamflow prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 153-159, 2010.
11. Kirkby, M. J.: Hillslope Hydrology, John Wiely, Hoboken, New Jersey, 1978.
12. Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Livneh, B., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Reichle, R. H.: Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow, Nat. Geosci., 3, 613-616, 2010.
13. Lamb, K.: Improving ensemble streamflow prediction using interdecadal-interannual climate variability, Doctoral thesis, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 2010.
14. Li, H., Luo, L., Wood, E. F., and Schaake, J.: The role of initial conditions and forcing uncertainties in seasonal hy-drologic forecasting, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D04114, doi:10.1029/2008JD010969, 2009.
15. Li, H., Sivapalan, M., and Tian, F.: Comparative diagnostic analysis of runoff generation processes in Oklahoma DMIP2 basins: The Blue River and the Illinois River, J. Hydrol., 418-419, 90-109, 2012.
16. Liu, D., Tian, F., Hu, H., and Hu, H.: The role of run-on for overland flow and the characteristics of runoff generation in the Loess Plateau, China, Hydrol. Sci. J., 57, 1107-1117, 2012.
17. Luo, L. and Wood, E. F.: Use of Bayesian merging techniques in a multimodel seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for the eastern United States. J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 866-884, 2008.
18. Mahanama, S. P. P., Koster, R. D., Reichle, R. H., and Zubair, L.: The role of soil moisture initialization in subseasonal and seasonal streamflow prediction-A case study in Sri Lanka, Adv. Water Resour., 31, 1333-1343, 2008.
19. Mahanama, S., Livneh, B., Koster, R., Lettenmaier, D., and Reichle, R.: Soil moisture, snow, and seasonal streamflow forecasts in the United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 189-203, 2011.
20. Maurer, E. P. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Predictability of seasonal runoff in the Mississippi River basin, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8607, doi:10.1029/2002JD002555, 2003.
21. Mou, L., Tian, F., Hu, H., and Sivapalan, M.: Extension of the representative elementary watershed approach for cold regions: constitutive relationships and an application, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 565-585, doi:10.5194/hess-12-565-2008, 2008. (Pubitemid 351445645)
22. Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, 1970.
23. Reed, P., Minsker, B. S., and Goldberg, D. E.: Simplifying multiob-jective optimization: An automated design methodology for the nondominated sorted genetic algorithm-II, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1196, doi:10.1029/2002WR001483, 2003.
24. Reggiani, P., Hassanizadeh, S. M., Sivapalan, M., and Gray, W. G.: A unifying framework for watershed thermodynamics: constitutive relationships, Adv. Water Resour., 23, 15-39, 1999. (Pubitemid 30005674)
25. Shi, X., Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: How essential is hy-drologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting?, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 1350-1363, 2008.
26. Shukla, S. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hy-drologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 15, 3529-3538, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011, 2011.
27. Shukla, S., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability, Hy-drol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2781-2796, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013, 2013.
28. Singla, S., Céron, J. P., Martin, E., Regimbeau, F., Déqué, M., Ha-bets, F., and Vidal, J. P.: Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 201-216, doi:10.5194/hess-16-201-2012, 2012.
29. Smith, J., Day, G., and Kane, M.: Nonparametric framework for long-range streamflow forecasting, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 118, 82-92, 1992.
30. Sun, Y., Tian, F., Yang, L., and Hu, H.: Exploring the spatial variability of contributions from climate variation and change in catchment properties to streamflow decrease in a mesoscale basin by three different methods, J. Hydrol., 58, 170-180, 2014.
31. Tian, F.: Study on thermodynamic watershed hydrological modeling (THModel), Doctoral thesis, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, 168 pp., 2006.
32. Tian, F., Hu, H., Lei, Z., and Sivapalan, M.: Extension of the representative elementary watershed approach for cold regions via explicit treatment of energy related processes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 619-644, doi:10.5194/hess-10-619-2006, 2006. (Pubitemid 44395624)
33. Tian, F., Mou L., and Hu H.: Characteristic of soil water retention curve on the macroscale, Sci. China Ser. E, 52, 2990-2996, 2009.
34. Tian, F., Li, H., and Sivapalan, M.: Model diagnostic analysis of seasonal switching of runoff generation mechanisms in the Blue River basin, Oklahoma, J. Hydrol., 418-419, 136-149, 2012.
35. Walker, W. E., Harremoes, P., Rotmans, J., Sluijs, J. P. v. d., As-selt, M. B. A. v., Janssen, P., and Krauss, M. P. K. v.: Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support, Integr. Assess., 4, 5-17, 2005.
36. Wang, E., Zhang, Y., Luo, J., Chiew, F. H. S., and Wang, Q. J.: Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using rainfall-runoff modeling and historical weather data, Water Resour. Res., 47, W05516, doi:10.1029/2010WR009922, 2011.
37. Werner, K., Brandon, D., Clark, M., and Gangopadhyay, S.: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. Hydrometeol., 5, 1076-1090, 2004. (Pubitemid 40112594)
38. Wood, A. W. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty, Geophy. Res. Let., 35, L14401, doi:10.1029/2008GL034648, 2008.
39. Wood, A. W. and Schaake, J. C.: Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 132-148, 2008.
40. Wood, A. W., Kumar, A., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: A retrospective assessment of national centers for environmental prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D04115, doi:10.1029/2004JD004508, 2005. (Pubitemid 40599441)
41. Yang, L., Tian, F., and Hu, H.: Modified ESP with the information of atmospheric circulation and teleconnection incorporated and its application, J. Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 53, 606-612, 2013.
42. Yuan, X. and Wood, E. F.: Downscaling precipitation or bias-correcting streamflow? some implications for coupled general circulation model (CGCM)-based ensemble seasonal hydrologic forecast, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12519, doi:10.1029/2012WR012256, 2012.
43. Yuan, X., Wood, E. F., Roundy, J. K., and Pan, M.: CFSv2-based seasonal hydro climatic forecasts over conterminous United States, J. Climate, 26, 4828-4847, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1, 2013.
44. Zappa, M., Jaun, S., Germann, U., Walser, A., and Fundel, F.: Superposition of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains, Atmos. Res., 100, 246-262, 2011.
45. Zhou, M., Tian, F., Lall, U., and Hu, H.: Insights from a joint analysis of Indian and Chinese monsoon rainfall data, Hy-drol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2709-2715, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2709-2011, 2011.