Cardiovascular risk prediction in a population with the metabolic syndrome: Framingham vs. UKPDS algorithms

European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

Volumn 21, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 384-390

  Zomer, Ella ^a   Liew, Danny ^b   Owen, Alice ^a   Magliano, Dianna J ^c   Ademi, Zanfina ^b   Reid, Christopher M ^a  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^c BAKER IDI HEART AND DIABETES INSTITUTE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Cardiovascular disease; Framingham; metabolic syndrome; risk prediction; UKPDS; validation

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ALGORITHM; AUSTRALIA; CALIBRATION; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; COMPARATIVE STUDY; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEATH; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE; HUMAN; LETTER; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; METABOLIC SYNDROME X; MIDDLE AGED; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNITED KINGDOM PROSPECTIVE DIABETES STUDY ALGORITHM;

CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; FRAMINGHAM; METABOLIC SYNDROME; RISK PREDICTION; UKPDS; VALIDATION;

ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; ALGORITHMS; AREA UNDER CURVE; AUSTRALIA; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; FEMALE; HEALTH STATUS INDICATORS; HUMANS; MALE; METABOLIC SYNDROME X; MIDDLE AGED; PROGNOSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; ROC CURVE; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84896729882     PISSN: 20474873     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/2047487312449307     Document Type: Letter

References (28)

1. Cardiovascular disease. Canberra: Australian Government ; 2011 :
2. Anderson KM, Odell PM, Wilson PWF, et al. Cardiovascular disease risk profiles. Am Heart J. 1990 ; 121: 293-298
3. Clarke PM, Gray AM, Briggs A, et al. A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68). Diabetologia. 2004 ; 47: 1747-1759
4. Wilson PW, D'Agostino RB, Parise H, et al. Metabolic syndrome as a precursor of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Circulation. 2005 ; 112 (20). 3066-3072
5. Dawber TR, Meadors GF, Moore FE. Epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the Framingham Study. Am J Public Health Nations Health. 1951 ; 41 (3). 279-281
6. Dunstan DW, Zimmet PZ, Welborn TA, et al. The Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle study (AusDiab)-methods and response rates. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2002 ; 57: 119-129
7. Alberti KGMM, Eckel RH, Grundy SM, et al. Harmonizing the metabolic syndrome: a Joint Interim Statement of the International Diabetes Federation Task Force on Epidemiology and Prevention; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; American Heart Association; World Heart Federation; International Atherosclerosis Society; and International Association for the Study of Obesity. Circulation. 2009 ; 120: 1640-1645
8. MONICA manual - section 1: Coronary event registration data component. Geneva: WHO ; 1999 :
9. Cerebrovascular disorders (offset publication). Geneva: WHO ; 1978 :
10. Barr EL, Tonkin AM, Welborn TA, et al. Validity of self-reported cardiovascular disease events in comparison to medical record adjudication and a statement hospital morbidity database: the AusDiab study. Intern Med J. 2009 ; 39 (1). 49-53
11. International classification of diseases (ICD)-10. Geneva: WHO ; 2010 :
12. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982 ; 143: 29-36
13. DeLong ER, Delong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL. Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics. 1988 ; 44: 837-845
14. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S Applied logistic regression. New York: John Wiley ; 1989: 135-145.
15. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, D'Agostino RB, et al. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Statist Med. 2008 ; 27: 157-172
16. Cook NR, Ridker PM. Advances in measuring the effect of individual predictors of cardiovascular risk: the role of reclassification measures. Ann Intern Med. 2009 ; 150: 795-802
17. Epidemic of coronary heart disease and its treatment in Australia, cardiovascular disease series no. 20, cat. no. CVD 21. Canberra: AIHW ; 2002 :
18. Romanens M, Ackermann F, Spence JD, et al. Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehab. 2010 ; 17: 18-23
19. Knuiman MW, Vu HTV. Prediction of coronary heart disease mortality in Busselton, Western Australia: an evaluation of the Framingham, national health epidemiological follow up study, and WHO ERICA risk scores. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1997 ; 51: 515-519
20. Eichler K, Puhan MA, Steurer J, et al. Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review. Am Heart J. 2007 ; 153 (5). 722-731
21. Dhaliwal SS, Welborn TA. Central obesity and multivariable cardiovascular risk as assessed by the Framingham prediction scores. Am J Cardiol. 2009 ; 103 (10). 1403-1407
22. Nelson MR, Ryan P, Tonkin AM, et al. Prediction of cardiovascular events in subjects in the second Australian National Blood Pressure study. Hypertension. 2010 ; 55 (1). 44-48
23. Davis WA, Colagiuri S, Davis TM. Comparison of the Framingham and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study cardiovascular risk equations in Australian patients with type 2 diabetes from the Fremantle Diabetes Study. Med J Aust. 2009 ; 190 (4). 180-184
24. Kengne AP, Patel A, Marre M, et al. Contemporary model for cardiovascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2011 ; 18 (3). 393-398
25. Cui J, Forbes A, Kirby A, et al. Laboratory and non-laboratory-based risk prediction models for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease: the LIPID study. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2009 ; 16: 660-668
26. Chen L, Tonkin AM, Moon L, et al. Recalibration and validation of the SCORE risk chart in the Australian population: the AusSCORE chart. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2009 ; 16 (5). 562-570
27. Bhatt DL, Eagle KA, Ohman EM, et al. Comparative determinants of 4-year cardiovascular event rates in stable outpatients at risk of or with atherothrombosis. JAMA. 2010 ; 304 (12). 1350-1357
28. The effects of diabetes on the risks of major cardiovascular diseases and deaths in the Asia-Pacific region. Diabetes Care. 2003 ; 26: 360-366