An approach to assess flooding and erosion risk for open beaches in a changing climate

Coastal Engineering

Volumn 87, Issue , 2014, Pages 50-76

  Villatoro, M ^a   Silva, R ^a   Mendez F J ^b   Zanuttigh, B ^c   Pan, S ^d,i   Trifonova, E ^e   Losada, I J ^b   Izaguirre, C ^b   Simmonds, D ^d   Reeve, D E ^d,j   Mendoza, E ^a   Martinelli, L ^f,g   Formentin, S M ^c   Galiatsatou, P ^h   Eftimova, P ^e  

^a UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

^b ENVIRONMENTAL HYDRAULICS INSTITUTE IH CANTABRIA   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^e INSTITUTE OF OCEANOLOGY   (Bulgaria)

^f UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA   (Italy)

^g CORILA ^*  (Italy)

^h ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI   (Greece)

ⁱ CARDIFF UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^j SWANSEA UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

Coastal risk; Erosion; Extreme event; Flooding; Hazard; Sources; SPRC

Indexed keywords

BEACHES; ELEMENTARY PARTICLE SOURCES; EROSION; FLOODS; HAZARDS; OIL WELL FLOODING; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; TOOLS;

BATHYMETRIC DATA; CHANGING CLIMATE; CLIMATE CONDITION; COASTAL RISKS; EXTREME EVENTS; QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION; SPRC; STATISTICAL MODELLING;

CLIMATE MODELS;

BEACH EROSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTREME EVENT; FLOODING; HAZARD MANAGEMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; VULNERABILITY;

EUROPE;

EID: 84896545834     PISSN: 03783839     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.11.009     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Abascal A.J., Castanedo S., Medina R. GOS, un reanálisis de marea meteorológica de 60 años de alta resolución para el sur de Europa. I Encuentro Oceanografía Física Española 2010, (In Spanish).
2. Andreeva N., Valchev N., Trifonova E., Eftimova P., Kirilova D., Georgieva M. Literary review of historical storm events in the western Black Sea 2011, Proc. of Union of Scientists-Varna, Marine Sciences, 105-112.
3. Belberov Z., Zahariev V., Krylov Y., Kostichkova D., Manyarova R., Polyakov Y. Analysis of the catastrophic storm in February 1979 near the Bulgarian Black sea coast. Oceanology 1982, 9:3-12. (Sofia, In Bulgarian).
4. Booij N., Ris R.C., Holthuijsen L.H. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, Part 1: model description and validation. J. Geophys. Res. 1999, 104:7649-7666.
5. Camus P., Méndez F.J., Medina R., Cofiño A.S. Analysis of clustering and selection algorithms for the study of multivariate wave climate. Coast. Eng 2011, 58(6):453-462.
6. Cavaleri L. Wave modelling-where to go in the future. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2006, 207-214.
7. Chen Y., Pan S., Hewston R., Cluckie I. Ensemble modelling of tides, surge and waves. Proceedings of the 20th International Offshore (Ocean) and Polar Engineering Conference, CD-ROM 2010.
8. Coles S.G. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values 2001, Springer, London, (208 pp.).
9. Department for Communities and Local Government-DCLG Planning Policy Statement 25: Development and Flood Risk [Online]. Available at:. http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/planningpolicystatement25.pdf.
10. DHI MIKE 21 & MIKE 3 Flow Model FM-Sand Transport Module. Rep. Horsholm, Denmark 2007, (10 pp.).
11. EDINA DIGIMAP Collection [accessed: February, 2011]. http://edina.ac.uk/digimap/.
12. EUROSTAT Statistics in focus http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
13. Galiatsatou P., Prinos P., Valchev N., Trifonova E. Analysis of extreme marine events causing flooding in Varna region. Turk. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2012, 12:523-531. 1303-2712, 10.4194/1303-2712-v12_2_44.
14. Hemer M.A., Church J.A., Hunter J.R. Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Int. J. Climatol. 2010, 30:475-491.
15. Hervouet J.M. The TELEMAC modelling system. Hydrol. Process. SI 2000, 14(13):2209-2210.
16. Holt J.T., James D.T. An s-coordinate density evolving model of the northwest European continental shelf: 1, Model description and density structure. J. Geophys. Res. 2001, 106:14,015-14,034.
17. Horrillo-Carballo J.M., Pan S., Reeve D.E., Simmonds D.J., Greaves D., Fox A. Modelling extreme wave events (present and future scenarios) in Southwest England. Proceedings of ICCE 2012, Santander 2012, (8 pp.).
18. IPCC Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, (Core Writing Team), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, (104 pp.). R.K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger (Eds.).
19. JNCC The Habitats Directive: Selection of Special Areas of Conservation in the UK. Report NO. 270 1997, Defra.
20. Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., Iredell M., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., Zhu Y., Chelliah M., Ebisuzaki W., Higgins W., Janowiak J., Mo K.C., Ropelewski C., Wang J., Leetmaa A., Reynolds R., Jenne R., Joseph D. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996, 77(3):437-471.
21. Kohonen T. Self-Organizing Maps 2000, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. 3rd ed.
22. Komen G.J., Cavaleri L., Donelan M., Hasselmann K., Hasselmann S., Janssen P.A.E.M. Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves 1994, Cambridge University Press, (532 pp.).
23. Krestenitis Y.N., Androulidakis Y.S., Kontos Y.N., Georgakopoulos G. Coastal inundation in the north-eastern Mediterranean coastal zone due to storm surge events. J. Coast. Conserv. 2010, 14:1-16. 10.1007/s11852-010-0090-7.
24. Kwan S.H. GIS Modelling of Flood on the South Devon Coast 2011, (MSc. Thesis), Plymouth University, (September 2011).
25. Larson M., Kraus N.C. Prediction of beach fill response to varying waves and water level. Proceedings of Coastal Zone'89, American Society of Civil Engineers 1989, 607-621.
26. Lesser G.R., Roelvink J.A., van Kester J.A.T.M., Stelling G.S. Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model. Coast. Eng. 2004, 51:883-915.
27. Li Y., Simmonds D.J., Reeve D.E. Quantifying uncertainty in extreme values of design parameters with resampling techniques. Ocean Eng. 2008, 35(10):1029-1038.
28. Martinelli L., Zanuttigh B., Corbau C. Assessment of coastal flooding hazard along the Emilia Romagna Littoral, IT. Coast. Eng. 2010, 57(11-12):1042-1158.
29. Méndez F.J., Menéndez M., Luceño A., Losada I.J. Estimation of the long-term variability of extreme significant wave height using a time-dependent POT model. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:C07024.
30. Miller J.K., Livermont E. An index for predicting storm erosion due to increased waves and water levels. Solutions to Coastal Disaster Congress 2008 2008.
31. Mínguez R., Espejo A., Tomás A., Méndez F.J., Losada I.J. Directional calibration of wave reanalysis databases using instrumental data. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 2011, 28:1466-1485.
32. Narayan S., Nicholls R.J., Clarke D., Hanson S., Reeve D., Horrillo-Carballo J., le Cozannet G., Hissel F., Kowalska B., Parda R., Willems P., Ohle N., Zanuttigh B., Losada I., Ge J., Trifonova E., Penning-Roswell E., Vanderlinden J.P. Evaluating the 2D Source-Pathway-Receptor model for flood risk assessment. Coast. Eng 2013, (in this issue). 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.021.
33. Nicholls R.J., Wong P.P., Burkett V.R., Codignotto J.O., Hay J.E., McLean R.F., Ragoonaden S., Woodroffe C.D. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 315-356. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
34. Nielsen P., Hanslow D.J. Wave run-up distributions on natural beaches. J. Coast. Res. 1991, 7(4):1139-1152.
35. Pan S., Chen Y., Wolf J., Du Y. Modelling of waves in the Irish Sea: effects of oceanic wave and wind forcing. Ocean Dyn. 2009, 59(6):827-836.
36. Pickands J. Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann. Stat. 1975, 3:119-131.
37. Posada G., Simmonds D., Silva R., Pedrozo A. A 2D hydrodynamic model with multi-quadtree mesh. Ocean Engineering Research Advances 2008, 205-241. Nova Publishers, Prescot, (Chapter 8, ISBN 978-1-60021-777-7,1-60021-777-X). I. Alan (Ed.).
38. Preti M., De Nigris N., Morelli M., Monti M., Bonsignore F., Aguzzi M. State of the Emilia-Romagna Littoral at 2007 and Ten-Years Management Plan, I quaderni dell'ARPA 2009, Bologna In Italian, abstract in English.
39. Reeve D.E. Estimation of extreme Indian monsoon rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 1996, 16(1):105-112.
40. Reguero B.G., Menéndez M., Méndez F.J., Mínguez R., Losada I.J. A Global Ocean Wave (GOW) calibrated reanalysis from 1948 onwards. Coast. Eng. 2012, 65:38-55.
41. Roelvink D., Reniers A., Van Dongeren A., Thiel Van, de Vries J., McCall R., Lescinski J. Modelling storm impact on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coast. Eng. 2009, 56:1133-1152.
42. Stakev M. About the break-down state of some coastal structures after the storm in February 1979. Shipbuilding Navigation 1980, 10:26-30. (in Bulgarian).
43. Stockdon H.F., Holman R.A., Howd P.A., Sallenger A.H. Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup. Coast. Eng. 2006, 53(7):573-588.
44. Thorne C., Evans E., Penning-Rowsell E. Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks 2007, Thomas Telford, London.
45. Tolman H.H. User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH-III version 1.18. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/OMB Technical Note 166 1999, (110 pp.).
46. Trifonova E.V. Modelling of cross shore profile changes under combination of extreme storm events. Proceedings of the 4th International Conference "Port Development and Coastal Environment - PDCE" (Varna, Bulgaria) 2007, 301-311.
47. Trifonova E., Demireva D. An investigation of sea level fluctuations in Varna and Bourgas. Proc. Inst. Oceanol. 2003, 4:3-9.
48. Trifonova E., Valchev N., Andreeva N., Eftimova P. Reconstruction of severe storms in the Western Black Sea and assessment of their impact on the coast. Proc 10th Int. Conf. on "Marine Sciences and technologies-Black Sea'2010", Varna, Bulgaria 2010, 254-260.
49. Trifonova E., Valchev N., Andreeva N., Eftimova P. Critical storm thresholds for morphological changes in the western Black Sea coastal zone. Geomorphology 2011, 143-144(March 2012):81-94. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.036.
50. Umgiesser G., Martinelli L., Zanuttigh B., Bellafiore D., Ferrarin C. Sea level rise and coastal flood protection in Cesenatico, Italy. Proc. Acqua Alta 2011 (Exhibition and Int. Conf. On climate impact, flood protection and hydraulic engineering), Hamburg, 11-13 October 2011 2011.
51. Uppala S.M., Kallberg P.W., Simmons A.J., Andrae U., Bechtold V.D., Fiorino M., Gibson J.K., Haseler J., Hernandez A., Kelly G.A., Li X., Onogi K., Saarinen S., Sokka N., Allan R.P., Andersson E., Arpe K., Balmaseda M.A., Beljaars A.C.M., Van De Berg L., Bidlot J., Bormann N., Caires S., Chevallier F., Dethof A., Dragosavac M., Fisher M., Fuentes M., Hagemann S., Holm E., Hoskins B.J., Isaksen L., Janssen P.A.E.M., Jenne R., McNally A.P., Mahfouf J.F., Morcrette J.J., Rayner N.A., Saunders R.W., Simon P., Sterl A., Trenberth K.E., Untch A., Vasiljevic D., Viterbo P., Woollen J. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2005, 131:2961-3012.
52. Valchev N., Trifonova E. Wave climate clustering to define threshold values with respect to the expected morphological response. J. Coast. Res. SI 2009, 56:1666-1670. ((Proceedings of the 10th International Coastal Symposium), Lisbon, Portugal).
53. Valchev N., Davidan I., Belberov Z., Palazov A. Practicability of wind waves simulations based on the global reanalysis wind fields in the Black Sea deep and shallow waters. 4th Int. Conf. "Port Development and Coastal Environment-2007", Varna, Bulgaria 2007, 185-191.
54. Valchev N., Trifonova E., Andreeva N. Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 12:961-977. 10.5194/nhess-12-961-2012.
55. van der Meer J.W., Briganti R., Zanuttigh B., Wang B. Wave transmission and reflection at low-crested structures: design formulae, oblique wave attack and spectral change. Coast. Eng. 2005, 52(10):915-929.
56. WDCC (Data Centre for Climate, CERA-DB). http://cera-www.dkrz.de/World.
57. Weisse R., Bellafiore D., Menéndez M., Méndez F., Nicholls R.J., Umgiesser G., Willems P. Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts. Coast. Eng. 2014, 87:4-14. (in this issue).
58. Woolf D.K., Challenor P.G., Cotton P.D. Variability and predictability of the North Atlantic wave climate. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107(C10):3145.
59. Zanuttigh B. Coastal flood protection: what perspective in a changing climate? The THESEUS approach. Environ. Sci. Pol. 2011, 10.1016/j.envsci.2011.03.015.
60. Zanuttigh B., Zagonari F., Bagli S., Pescaroli G., Bozzeda F., Hoggart S., Nicholls R.J., Garcia-Alonso E., Losada I.J., Vanderlinden J.P. THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management. Coast. Eng. 2014, 87:218-239. (in this issue).