Democratic Prospects in Indonesia

Asian Journal of Political Science

Volumn 1, Issue 2, 1993, Pages 77-92

  Crouch, Harold ^a  

^a AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84895672828     PISSN: 02185377     EISSN: 17507812     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/02185379308434026     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. S.M. Lipset, Political Man (Garden City: Double Day, 1960); D. Rueschemeyer, E.H. Stephens and J.D. Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1992).
2. B. Moore, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Harmondsworth: Allen Lane The Penguin Press, 1967), p. 418.
3. R. Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital (North Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1986).
4. A. Maclntyre, Business and Politics in Indonesia (North Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1990).
5. H. Crouch, Domestic Political Structures and Regional Economic Co-operation (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1988), p. 77.
6. Biro Pusat Statistik, Population of Indonesia, Series S/2 (Jakarta, 1992), p. 375.
7. Ibid., p. 15; Far Eastern Economic Review, Asia Year Book 1992 (Hong Kong), p. 6.
8. J. Wanandi, “Political Development and National Stability”, in H. Crouch and H. Hill, (eds.), Indonesia Assessment 1992 (Canberra: Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University).
9. Rueschemeyer, op. cit.
10. Biro Pusat Statistik, Population of Indonesia, Series S/2 (Jakarta, 1982), p. 147; Population of Indonesia, 1992, p. 375.
11. C. Manning, “Survey of Recent Developments”, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 1 (April 1992) p. 29.
12. Biro Pusat Statistik, Population of Indonesia, 1982, p. 147; 1992, p. 375.
13. D.I. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985), pp. 681-684.
14. Soedjatmoko, “Indonesia: Problems and Opportunities”, Australian Outlook, Vol. 21, No. 3,1967.
15. T. Skocpol, “Bringing the State Back In: Strategies of Analysis in Current Research”, in P.B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer and T. Skocpol, (eds.)/ Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985); G. O'Donnell and P.C. Schmitter, Transition from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1986); L. Diamond, “Introduction: Persistence, Erosion, Breakdown and Renewal” in L. Diamonds, J.J. Linz and S.M. Lipset, (eds.), Democracy in Developing Countries, Vol. 3 (Asia Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers).
16. O'Donnell, et al., op. cit., pp. 19,21.
17. A. Gregory, “The Influence of Ethnicity in the Evolution of the Indonesian Military Elite”, in D.C. Ellinwood and C. Enloe (eds.), Ethnicity and the Military in Asia (New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1981).
18. B.R.O'G. Anderson, “The Last Days of Indonesia's Suharto?” Southeast Asia Chronicle, Vol. 63,1978.
19. H. Feith, “Suharto's Search for a Format”, Australia's Neighbours, Vols. 56-57, (May-June 1968).
20. B.R.O'G. Anderson, “The Idea of Power in Javanese Culture”, in C. Holt (ed.), Culture and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca: Cornell University, 1972.)
21. H. Crouch, The Army and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1978).
22. D. Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals (Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Cornell University, 1984).
23. D. Emmerson, “The Rabbit and the Crocodile: Expecting the End of the New Order in Indonesia, 1966-1991” (unpublished manuscript).
24. U. Sundhaussen, “Regime Crisis in Indonesia: Facts, Fiction, Predictions”. Asian Survey. Vol. XXI, No. 8 (August 1981).
25. A. Budiman, “Indonesian Politics in the 1990s” in H. Crouch and H. Hill (eds.), Indonesia Assessment 1992 (Canberra: Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University, 1992).
26. It could be argued that the key figure behind keterbukaan is General Benny Murdani whose previous record hardly suggests a deep commitment to democratic principles.
27. H. Crouch, “Indonesia: the Rise or Fall of Suharto's Generals”, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 10, No. 1 (January 1988).
28. O'Donnell and Schmitter refer to ‘the problem of “undetermined” social change, of large-scale transformations which occur when there are insufficient structural or behavioural parameters to guide and predict the outcome’ (O'Donnell Schmitter op. cit., pp. 3-4).
29. Bill Liddle wrote in a recent paper - with some understatement - that “At this point in the succession struggle, events become hard to predict” and proves this with his scenarios which cover a very wide range of possibilities. He speculates that “One outcome might be genuine (but not necessarily) stable democracy”. But ”Another possibility is an army crackdown” resulting in “a reaffirmation of the ancien regime or the establishment of an even more repressive one”. And yet another scenario envisages that ”a moderate army faction” will take over and “attempt limited democratization” (R.W. Liddle, “Regime in Crisis? Presidential Succession, the East Timor Massacre, the Prospects for Democratization in Indonesia”, paper presented at the 44th Annual Meeting of the Association of Asian Studies, Washington D.C. 2-5 April 1992.) But Bill Liddle is not alone in this. In 1988 I also wrote of three scenarios. “First, it may be that a consensus will be reached within the military and a single, strong candidate will emerge enjoying general acceptance by the armed forces”. But, if there is no strong candidate “a period of instability is not unimaginable with rival military groups taking action against the regime” and “increased popular opposition”. And, finally, “there might be increased scope for civilian political activity as rival military groups find that they can enhance their influence by cultivating civilian allies” (Crouch ”Indonesia: the Rise or Fall…”, pp. 172-173). Thus, almost anything seems possible.
30. S.P. Huntington, “The Goal of Development” in M. Weiner and S.P. Huntington (eds.), Understanding Political Development (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1987), p. 28; M. Weiner, “Political Change: Asia, Africa and the Middle East”, in Weiner and Huntington, op. cit, p. 60; L.W. Pye, Asian Power and Politics: The Cultural Dimensions of Authority (Cambridge, Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1985).
31. Anderson, “The Idea of Power in Javanese Culture”, pp. 22-24.
32. H. Feith, “Legitimacy Questions and the Suharto Polity”, in J.J. Fox et al., (eds.), -Indonesia: Australian Perspectives (Canberra: Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, 1980).