Long-term forecasting of global carbon dioxide emissions: Reducing uncertainties using a per capita approach

Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 32, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 435-451

  McKitrick, Ross ^a   Strazicich, Mark C ^b   Lee, Junsoo ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

^b APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA   (United States)

Author keywords

Future emission scenarios; Global warming; Structural break

Indexed keywords

AIR NAVIGATION; CARBON DIOXIDE; FORECASTING; INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS; CLIMATE ANALYSIS; CLIMATE POLICY; CO 2 EMISSION; EMISSION SCENARIO; FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIO; LONG-TERM FORECASTING; PER CAPITA; STRUCTURAL BREAK; UNCERTAINTY;

GLOBAL WARMING;

EID: 84894830802     PISSN: 02776693     EISSN: 1099131X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/for.2248     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Aldy JE. 2006. Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence? Environmental and Resource Economics 33: 533-555.
2. Barassi MR, Cole MA, Elliott RJR. 2008. Stochastic divergence or convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: re-examining the evidence. Environmental and Resource Economics 40: 121-137.
3. 2 emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN.
4. Castles I, Henderson D. 2003. The IPCC emission scenarios: an economic-statistical critique. Energy and Environment 14: 159-185.
5. Chakravorty U, Roumasset J, Tse K. 1997. Endogenous substitution among energy resources and global warming. Journal of Political Economy 105: 1201-1234.
6. 2 emissions: evidence from six global models. OECD Economic Studies 19: 17-53.
7. Fildes R, Kourentzes N. 2011. Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting 27: 968-995.
8. Gilland B. 1995. World population, economic growth, and energy demand, 1990-2100: a review of projections. Population and Development Review 21(3): 507-539.
9. Hoffert M, Caldeira K, Benford G, et al. 2002. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet. Science 298: 981-987.
10. IPCC. 2000. Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
11. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
12. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
13. Lanne M, Liski M. 2004. Trends and breaks in per-capita carbon dioxide emissions, 1870 2028. Energy Journal 25: 41-65.
14. Lee J, Strazicich MC. 2001. Break point estimation and spurious rejections with endogenous unit root tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 63: 535-558.
15. Lee J, Strazicich MC. 2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85: 1082-1089.
16. Lee J, Strazicich MC. 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Manuscript, Appalachian State University. Available: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0417.pdf [21 July 2012].
17. McKibbin WJ, Stegman A. 2005. Convergence and per capita emissions. Working paper, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. McKibbin WJ, Pearce D, Stegman A. 2007. Long term projections of carbon emissions. International Journal of Forecasting 23: 637-653.
18. Nakicenovic N, Grübler A, Gaffin S, et al. 2003. IPCC SRES revisited: a response. Energy and Environment 14: 187-214.
19. Ng S, Perron P. 1995. Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90: 269-281.
20. Nordhaus WD, Yohe GW. 1983. Future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Cowles Foundation Paper 580, Yale University. Reprinted from Changing Climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee. National Academy Press: Washington, DC, 1983; Ch. 2.
21. Nunes L, Newbold P, Kuan C. 1997. Testing for unit roots with breaks: evidence on the Great Crash and the unit root hypothesis reconsidered. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 59: 435-448.
22. Panopoulou E, Pantelidis T. 2009. Club convergence in carbon dioxide emissions. Environmental and Resource Economics 44: 47-70.
23. Perron P. 1989. The Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica 57: 1361-1401.
24. Perron P. 2006. Dealing with structural breaks. In New Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 1, Mills TC, Patterson K (eds). Macmillan: London; 278-352.
25. 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104: 10288-10293.
26. Romero-Avila D. 2008. Convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialized countries revisited. Energy Economics 30: 2265-2282.
27. Schmalensee R, Stoker TM, Judson RA. 1998. World carbon dioxide emissions: 1950-2050. The Review of Economics and Statistics 2: 15-27.
28. Spanos A. 1986. Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
29. Stern N. 2006. Stern review: the economics of climate change. HM Treasury, London. Available: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/ Independent-Reviews/ stern-review-economics-climate-change/sternreview-index.cm [21 July 2012].
30. 2 emission levels converging among industrial countries? Environmental and Resource Economics 24: 263-271.
31. United Nations. 2004. World population to 2300. Available: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf [21 July 2012].
32. 2 emissions. Environmental and Resource Economics 32: 495-508.
33. Wårell L. 2006. Market integration in the international coal industry: a cointegration approach. Energy Journal 27: 99-118.
34. Webster MD, Babiker M, Mayer M, et al. 2002. Uncertainty in emission projections for climate models. Mimeo, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
35. Westerlund J, Basher SA. 2008. Testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data. Environmental and Resource Economics 40: 109-120.
36. Wood J. 2010. Co-fluctuation patterns of per-capita carbon dioxide emissions: the role of energy markets. PhD dissertation, University of Guelph.
37. Zivot E, Andrews DWK. 1992. Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10: 251-270.