Transient twenty-first century changes in daily-scale temperature extremes in the United States

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 42, Issue 5-6, 2014, Pages 1383-1404

  Scherer, Martin ^a   Diffenbaugh, Noah S ^a,b  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Cold extreme; Hot extreme; RegCM3; Regional climate model; Time of emergence (TOE); Transient change

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894353791     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1829-2     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006290.
2. Anderson BT (2011) Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target. Clim Change 108: 581-589. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0196-4.
3. Anderson GB, Bell ML (2009) Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 20: 205-213. doi: 10. 1097/EDE. 0b013e318190ee08.
4. Ashfaq M, Bowling LC, Cherkauer K et al (2010) Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: a case study of the United States. J Geophys Res. doi: 10. 1029/2009JD012965.
5. Ballester J, Rodó X, Giorgi F (2009) Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming. Clim Dyn 35: 1191-1205. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0641-5.
6. Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24: 190-202. doi: 10. 1093/epirev/mxf007.
7. Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J Geophys Res 113: 1-11. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD008091.
8. Butler EE, Huybers P (2013) Adaptation of US maize to temperature variations. Nat Clim Ch 3: 68-72. doi: 10. 1038/nclimate1585.
9. Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C et al (2010) Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 37: 1-6. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL044613.
10. CH2011 (2011) Swiss climate change scenarios CH2011. Zurich, Switzerland.
11. Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown SJ (2011) The role of human activity in the recent warming of extremely warm daytime temperatures. J Clim 24: 1922-1930. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI4150. 1.
12. Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N et al (2005) Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437: 529-533. doi: 10. 1038/nature03972.
13. Clark RT, Brown SJ, Murphy JM (2006) Modeling northern hemisphere summer heat extreme changes and their uncertainties using a physics ensemble of climate sensitivity experiments. J Clim 19: 4418-4435. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3877. 1.
14. Clark RT, Murphy JM, Brown SJ (2010) Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk? Geophys Res Lett 37: 1-5. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL043898.
15. Cohen JL, Furtado JC, Barlow MA et al (2012) Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett 7: 014007. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007.
16. Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML et al (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19: 2122-2143. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3761. 1.
17. Daly C, Taylor G, Gibson W (1997) The prism approach to mapping precipitation and temperature, pp 1-4.
18. Davis SJ, Caldeira K, Matthews HD (2010) Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure. Science 329: 1330-1333. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1188566.
19. De Vries H, Haarsma RJ, Hazeleger W (2012) Western European cold spells in current and future climate. Geophys Res Lett 39: 1-6. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL050665.
20. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38: 527-546. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
21. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB et al (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105: 6668-6672. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0709472105.
22. Diffenbaugh NS, Ashfaq M (2010) Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL043888.
23. Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2011) Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Clim Change 107: 615-624. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0112-y.
24. Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2012) Using climate impacts indicators to evaluate climate model ensembles: temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation in the United States. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-012-1377-1.
25. Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Trapp RJ, Giorgi F (2005) Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102: 15774-15778. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0506042102.
26. Diffenbaugh NS, Giorgi F, Raymond L, Bi X (2007) Indicators of 21st century socioclimatic exposure. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104: 20195-20198.
27. Diffenbaugh NS, Krupke CH, White MA, Alexander CE (2008) Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management. Environ Res Lett 3: 044007. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/3/4/044007.
28. Diffenbaugh NS, Ashfaq M, Scherer M (2011a) Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale ensemble experiment over the continental United States. J Geophys Res 116: 1-16. doi: 10. 1029/2011JD016458.
29. Diffenbaugh NS, White MA, Jones GV, Ashfaq M (2011b) Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States. Environ Res Lett 6: 024024. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/6/2/024024.
30. Diffenbaugh NS, Hertel TW, Scherer M, Verma M (2012) Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures. Nat Clim Ch 2: 1-5. doi: 10. 1038/nclimate1491.
31. Easterling DR (2002) Recent change in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83: 1327-1332.
32. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C et al (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289: 2068-2074. doi: 10. 1126/science. 289. 5487. 2068.
33. Favre A, Gershunov A (2009) North Pacific cyclonic and anticyclonic transients in a global warming context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature extremes. Clim Dyn 32: 969-987. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0417-3.
34. Filleul L, Larrieu S, Lefranc A (2011) Extreme temperatures and mortality. In: Health E-CJONBT-E of E (ed) Encyclopedia of environmental health. Elsevier, Burlington, pp 693-699.
35. Fischer EM, Schär C (2010) Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat Geosci 3: 398-403. doi: 10. 1038/ngeo866.
36. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Vidale PL et al (2007) Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J Clim 20: 5081-5099. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4288. 1.
37. Francis JA, Vavrus SJ (2012) Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 39: 1-6. doi: 10. 1029/2012GL051000.
38. Francis JA, Chan W, Leathers DJ et al (2009) Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36: 1-5. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL037274.
39. Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P et al (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19: 193-212. doi: 10. 3354/cr019193.
40. Garcíca-Herrera R, Díaz J, Trigo RM et al (2010) A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003. Critical Rev Environ Sci Technol 40: 267-306. doi: 10. 1080/10643380802238137.
41. Gershunov A, Douville H (2008) Extensive summer hot and cold extremes under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and North America. In: Diaz HF, Murnane RJ (ed) Climate extremes and society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 74-98.
42. Giorgi F, Bi X (2009) Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 36: 1-6. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL037593.
43. Giorgi F, Diffenbaugh NS, Gao XJ et al (2008) The regional climate change hyper-matrix framework. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 89: 445. doi: 10. 1029/2008EO450001.
44. Giorgi F, Im E-S, Coppola E et al (2011) Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming. J Clim 24: 5309-5324. doi: 10. 1175/2011JCLI3979. 1.
45. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90: 1095-1107. doi: 10. 1175/2009BAMS2607. 1.
46. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL050087.
47. Huynen MMTE, Martens P, Schram D et al (2001) The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population. Environ Health Perspect 109: 463-470.
48. IPCC Working Groups I and II (2011) IPCC SREX summary for policymakers. Text 1-29.
49. Joshi M, Hawkins E, Sutton R et al (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nat Clim Ch 1: 407-412. doi: 10. 1038/nclimate1261.
50. Karl TR, Melillo JM, Peterson TC (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
51. Klein Tank A, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Report, World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP) series, WCDMP-72.
52. Kodra E, Steinhaeuser K, Ganguly AR (2011) Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL047103.
53. Kunkel KE, Liang X-Z, Zhu J (2010) Regional climate model projections and uncertainties of U. S. Summer Heat Waves. J Clim 23: 4447-4458. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3349. 1.
54. Lowe D, Ebi KL, Forsberg B (2011) Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves. Int J Environ Res Public Health 8: 4623-4648. doi: 10. 3390/ijerph8124623.
55. Mahlstein I, Knutti R, Solomon S, Portmann RW (2011) Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries. Environ Res Lett 6: 034009. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009.
56. Mearns LO, Gutowski W, Jones R et al (2009) A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 90: 311. doi: 10. 1029/2009EO360002.
57. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305: 994-997. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1098704.
58. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Nychka D (2004) Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty-first century climate. Clim Dyn 23: 495-511. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-004-0442-9.
59. Meehl GA, Washington WM, Santer BD et al (2006) Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J Clim 19: 2597-2616. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3746. 1.
60. Meehl GA, Covey C, Taylor KE et al (2007a) THE WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a New Era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88: 1383-1394. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-88-9-1383.
61. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007b) Global climate projections. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
62. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007c) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
63. Morak S, Hegerl GC, Kenyon J (2011) Detectable regional changes in the number of warm nights. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL048531.
64. Nakicenovic N, Davidson O, Davis G et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios, intergovernmental panel on climate change special reports on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
65. Orlowsky B, Seneviratne SI (2011) Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension. Clim Change. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0122-9.
66. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X (2004) Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections. Geophys Res Lett 31: L13202. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL019836.
67. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X et al (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88: 1395-1409. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-88-9-1395.
68. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438: 310-317. doi: 10. 1038/nature04188.
69. Portmann RW, Solomon S, Hegerl GC (2009) Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 7324-7329. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0808533106.
70. Räisänen J, Ylhäisi JS (2011) Cold months in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 38: 1-6. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL049758.
71. Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R (2012) Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Ch 2: 248-253.
72. Schlenker W, Roberts MJ (2009) Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U. S. crop yields under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0906865106.
73. Sherwood SC, Huber M (2010) An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107: 9552-9555. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0913352107.
74. Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environ Change 16: 282-292. doi: 10. 1016/j. gloenvcha. 2006. 03. 008.
75. Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature. doi: 10. 1029/2001JB001029.
76. Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC et al (2010) Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. doi: 10. 1002/wcc. 34.
77. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93: 485-498. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-D-11-00094. 1.
78. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2007) Going to the extremes. Clim Change 82: 233-234.
79. UNFCCC (2010) Report of the conference of the parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009, pp 1-43.
80. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, pp 1-160.
81. Vavrus S, Walsh JE, Chapman WL, Portis D (2006) The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming. Int J Climatol 26: 1133-1147. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1301.
82. Walker M, Diffenbaugh NS (2009) Evaluation of high-resolution simulations of daily-scale temperature and precipitation over the United States. Clim Dyn 33: 1131-1147. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0603-y.
83. White MA, Diffenbaugh NS, Jones GV et al (2006) Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0603230103.
84. Williams J, Jackson S, Kutzbach J (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0606292104.
85. Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrological implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 189-216. doi: 10. 1023/B: CLIM. 0000013685. 99609. 9e.
86. Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Feng Y (2011) Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales. J Clim 24: 881-892. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3908. 1.