Land use dynamics, climate change, and food security in Vietnam: A global-to-local modeling approach

World Development

Volumn 59, Issue , 2014, Pages 29-46

  Rutten, Martine ^a   Van Dijk, Michiel ^a   Van Rooij, Wilbert ^b   Hilderink, Henk ^c  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b Plansup ^*  (Netherlands)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Asia; Climate change; Food security; Global to local modeling; Land use change; Vietnam

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894346215     PISSN: 0305750X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.020     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Abbott P., Bentzen J., Tarp F. Trade and development: Lessons from Vietnam's past trade agreements. World Development 2008, 37(2):341-353.
2. Alcamo J. The SAS approach: Combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios. Environmental futures: The practice of environmental scenario analysis 2008, Elsevier, Amsterdam. J. Alcamo (Ed.).
3. Banse M., van Meijl H., Tabeau A., Woltjer G. Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?. European Review of Agricultural Economics 2008, 35(2):117-141.
4. Banse M., van Meijl H., Tabeau A., Woltjer G., Hellmann F., Verburg P.H. Impact of EU biofuel policies on world agricultural production and land use. Biomass and Bioenergy 2011, 35(6):2385-2390.
5. Börjeson L., Höjer M., Dreborg K.-H., Ekvall T., Finnveden G. Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. Futures 2006, 38(7):723-739.
6. Bruinsma, J. (2003). World agriculture: Towards 2015/30, an FAO perspective. London: Earthscan and Rome: FAO.
7. Castella J.-C., Pheng Kam S., Dinh Quang D., Verburg P.H., Thai Hoanh C. Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies: Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam. Land Use Policy 2007, 24(3):531-545.
8. Coxhead, I., & Van Chan, N. (2011). GPE-VN: A general equilibrium model for the study of globalization, poverty and the environment in Vietnam, draft version July 2011. University of Wisconsin and National Economics University Hanoi.
9. Dasgupta S., Laplante B., Meisner C., Wheeler D., Yan J. The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. Climate Change 2009, 93(3-4):379-388.
10. Food an Agricultural Organization (FAO). (1996). Rome declaration on world food security. World food summit, November 13-17, 1996. Rome: FAO.
11. FAO. (2012). FAO country profiles: Vietnam. http://faostat.fao.org/CountryProfiles/Country_Profile/Direct.aspx?lang=en%26area=237.
12. Francois J., van Meijl H., van Tongeren F. Trade liberalization in the Doha development round. Economic Policy 2005, 20(42):349-391.
13. Hertel T.W. Global trade analysis: Modelling and applications 1997, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
14. Hertel T.W., Burke M.B., Lobell D.B. The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Global Environmental Change 2010, 20(4):577-585.
15. High Level Panel of Experts (HLPE) on Food Security and Nutrition. (2011). Land tenure and international investments in agriculture. HLPE Report 2. Rome: FAO Committee on World Food Security.
16. IPCC IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories 2006, IPCC/IGES, Hayama, Japan.
17. Kirk, M., & Tuan, N. D. A. (2009). Land-tenure policy reforms: Decollectivization and the Doi Moi system in Vietnam. IFPRI Discussion Paper 927. Washington DC: IFPRI.
18. Klein Goldewijk K., Beusen A., Janssen P. Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1. The Holocene 2010, 20(4):565-573.
19. Markussen T., Tarp F., Van Den Broeck K. The forgotten property rights: Evidence on land use right in Vietnam. World Development 2010, 39(5):839-850.
20. McIntyre B.D., Herren H.R., Wakhungu J., Watson R.T. Agriculture at a crossroads. International assessment of agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development (IAASTD): Global report 2009, Island Press, Washington, DC.
21. Ministry of National Resources and Environment (MONRE) Viet Nam's second national communication to the United Nations framework convention on climate change 2010, MONRE, Hanoi.
22. Nakicenovic N., Alcamo J., Davis G., De Vries B., Fenhann J., Gaffin S., et al. Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. Nelson G.C., Rosegrant M.W., Palazzo A., Gray I., Ingersoll C., Robertson R., et al. Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options 2010, IFPRI, Washington, DC.
24. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) Integrated modelling of global environmental change: An overview of IMAGE 2.4 2006, MNP, Bilthoven.
25. NIAPP Agricultural development plan to 2020 and vision to 2030 2011, NIAPP, Hanoi, (original version in Vietnamese).
26. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14(1):53-67.
27. Reidsma P., Tekelenburg T., Van Den Berg M., Alkemade R. Impacts of land-use change on biodiversity: An assessment of agricultural biodiversity in the European Union. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2006, 114:86-102.
28. Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., et al. (1996). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Report 218. Hamburg: Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie.
29. Rutten, M., van Rooij, W., & van Dijk, M. (2012). Global-to-local modelling of land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and high economic growth scenario. GTAP Resource 3799.
30. Rutten M., Shutes L., Meijerink G. Sit down at the ballgame: How trade barriers make the world less food secure. Food Policy 2013, 38:1-10.
31. Turner, B. L., Skole, D. L., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L., & Leemans, R. (1995). Land-use and land-cover change. Science/Research Plan, Joint publication of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (Report No. 35) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (Report No 7). Stockholm: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
32. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). (2012). World urbanization prospects: The 2011 revision. http://www.esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm.
33. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Economic Research Service (ERS). (2012). International macroeconomic data set. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-macroeconomic-data-set.aspx#BaselineMacroTables.
34. Van Chinh, N. (2011). SEDS 2011-2020 and SEDP 2011-2015: Requirements on land use planning in Viet Nam. Presentation prepared for the workshop on Land Use Policy Optimization, Hanoi, October 12, 2011.
35. van Dijk, M., Hilderink, H., van Rooij, W., Rutten, M., Ashton, R., Kartikasari, K., et al. (2013). Land use change, food security and climate change in Vietnam: A global-to-local modelling approach. LEI Report 2013-020. The Hague: LEI-Wageningen UR.
36. van Meijl H., van Rheenen T., Tabeau A., Eickhout B. The impact of different policy environments on land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2006, 114(1):21-38.
37. Verburg P.H., Eickhout B., van Meijl H. A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use. Annals of Regional Science 2008, 42(1):57-77.
38. Verburg P.H., Schulp C.J.E., Witte N., Veldkamp A. Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2006, 114(1):39-56.
39. Verburg P.H., Soepboer W., Veldkamp A., Limpiada R., Espaldon V., Mastura S.S.A. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management 2002, 30(3):391-405.
40. Westhoek H., Van Den Berg M., Bakkes J.A. Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2006, 114(1):7-20.
41. Willenbockel D. Exploring food price scenarios towards 2030 with a global multi-region model 2011, University of Sussex, Oxfam and IDS.
42. World Bank Economics of adaptation to climate change: Vietnam 2011, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
43. World Bank. (2013). World development indicators. http://www.data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
44. Zhu, T., & Trinh, M. V. (2010). Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security, June 11-12, 2010, Beijing.