메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 42, Issue , 2014, Pages 174-192

Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets

Author keywords

Branching processes; Bubble; Commodities; Endogeneity; Oil; Reflexivity; Regime shift; Self excitation

Indexed keywords


EID: 84894269923     PISSN: 02615606     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.010     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (60)

References (60)
  • 1
    • 25844435205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How often to sample a continuous-time process in the presence of market microstructure noise
    • Aït-Sahalia Y., Mykland P.A., Zhang L. How often to sample a continuous-time process in the presence of market microstructure noise. Rev. Financ. Stud. 2005, 18(2):351-416.
    • (2005) Rev. Financ. Stud. , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 351-416
    • Aït-Sahalia, Y.1    Mykland, P.A.2    Zhang, L.3
  • 4
    • 0242345456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Micro effects of macro announcements: real-time price discovery in foreign exchange
    • Andersen T.G., Bollerslev T., Diebold F.X., Vega C. Micro effects of macro announcements: real-time price discovery in foreign exchange. Am. Econ. Rev. 2003, 93(1):38-62.
    • (2003) Am. Econ. Rev. , vol.93 , Issue.1 , pp. 38-62
    • Andersen, T.G.1    Bollerslev, T.2    Diebold, F.X.3    Vega, C.4
  • 6
    • 79956347891 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes
    • Springer, T. Mikosch, J.-P. Kreiß, R.A. Davis, T.G. Andersen (Eds.)
    • Bauwens L., Hautsch N. Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes. Handbook of Financial Time Series 2009, 953-979. Springer. T. Mikosch, J.-P. Kreiß, R.A. Davis, T.G. Andersen (Eds.).
    • (2009) Handbook of Financial Time Series , pp. 953-979
    • Bauwens, L.1    Hautsch, N.2
  • 10
    • 34848883614 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling security market events in continuous time: intensity based, multivariate point process models
    • Bowsher C.G. Modelling security market events in continuous time: intensity based, multivariate point process models. J.Econ. 2007, 141(2):876-912.
    • (2007) J.Econ. , vol.141 , Issue.2 , pp. 876-912
    • Bowsher, C.G.1
  • 11
  • 13
    • 22944466056 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating value-at-risk: a point process approach
    • Chavez-Demoulin V., Davison A.C., McNeil A.J. Estimating value-at-risk: a point process approach. Quant. Finan. 2005, 5(2):227-234.
    • (2005) Quant. Finan. , vol.5 , Issue.2 , pp. 227-234
    • Chavez-Demoulin, V.1    Davison, A.C.2    McNeil, A.J.3
  • 14
    • 0012741010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?
    • Christie-David R., Chaudhry M., Koch T.W. Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?. J. Econ. Bus. 2000, 52(5):405-421.
    • (2000) J. Econ. Bus. , vol.52 , Issue.5 , pp. 405-421
    • Christie-David, R.1    Chaudhry, M.2    Koch, T.W.3
  • 15
    • 85032750932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical modeling of high frequency financial data: facts, models and challenges
    • Cont R. Statistical modeling of high frequency financial data: facts, models and challenges. IEEE Sig. Process. 2011, 28(5):16-25.
    • (2011) IEEE Sig. Process. , vol.28 , Issue.5 , pp. 16-25
    • Cont, R.1
  • 16
    • 78149496697 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes
    • Springer Verlag, Vol. 2 of Probability and Its Applications
    • Daley D.J., Vere-Jones D. An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes. General Theory and Structure 2008, vol. II. Springer Verlag, Vol. 2 of Probability and Its Applications. second ed.
    • (2008) General Theory and Structure , vol.2
    • Daley, D.J.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 17
    • 70349852275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Financial investors and commodity markets
    • Domanski D., Heath A. Financial investors and commodity markets. BIS Quart. Rev. 2007, 5:1-15.
    • (2007) BIS Quart. Rev. , vol.5 , pp. 1-15
    • Domanski, D.1    Heath, A.2
  • 18
    • 80655149116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures
    • Elder J., Miao H., Ramchander S. Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures. J. Bank. Finan. 2012, 36(1):51-65.
    • (2012) J. Bank. Finan. , vol.36 , Issue.1 , pp. 51-65
    • Elder, J.1    Miao, H.2    Ramchander, S.3
  • 19
    • 84859447054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate Hawkes processes: an application to financial data
    • Embrechts P., Liniger T., Lu L. Multivariate Hawkes processes: an application to financial data. J. Appl. Probab. 2011, 48A:367-378.
    • (2011) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.48 A , pp. 367-378
    • Embrechts, P.1    Liniger, T.2    Lu, L.3
  • 20
    • 0001905231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The econometrics of ultra-high-frequency data
    • Engle R.F. The econometrics of ultra-high-frequency data. Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. 2000, 68(1):1-22.
    • (2000) Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. , vol.68 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-22
    • Engle, R.F.1
  • 21
    • 0031161249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model
    • Engle R.F., Russell J.R. Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model. J. Emp. Finan. 1997, 4(2-3):187-212.
    • (1997) J. Emp. Finan. , vol.4 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 187-212
    • Engle, R.F.1    Russell, J.R.2
  • 22
    • 0000373457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Autoregressive conditional duration: a new model for irregularly spaced transaction data
    • Engle R.F., Russell J.R. Autoregressive conditional duration: a new model for irregularly spaced transaction data. Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. 1998, 66(5):1127-1162.
    • (1998) Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. , vol.66 , Issue.5 , pp. 1127-1162
    • Engle, R.F.1    Russell, J.R.2
  • 24
    • 0000480869 scopus 로고
    • Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work
    • Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J. Finan. 1970, 25(2):383-417.
    • (1970) J. Finan. , vol.25 , Issue.2 , pp. 383-417
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 25
    • 0000029776 scopus 로고
    • Efficient capital markets: II
    • Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets: II. J. Finan. 1991, 46(5):1575-1617.
    • (1991) J. Finan. , vol.46 , Issue.5 , pp. 1575-1617
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 27
    • 84861932279 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: toward a prediction of flash crashes
    • Filimonov V., Sornette D. Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: toward a prediction of flash crashes. Phys. Rev. E 2012, 85(5):056108.
    • (2012) Phys. Rev. E , vol.85 , Issue.5 , pp. 056108
    • Filimonov, V.1    Sornette, D.2
  • 28
    • 0002044433 scopus 로고
    • On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data
    • Garman M.B., Klass M.J. On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data. J. Bus. 1980, 53(1):67-78.
    • (1980) J. Bus. , vol.53 , Issue.1 , pp. 67-78
    • Garman, M.B.1    Klass, M.J.2
  • 30
    • 0345401653 scopus 로고
    • Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders
    • Glosten L.R., Milgrom P.R. Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders. J. Finan. Econ. Mar. 1985, 14(1):71-100.
    • (1985) J. Finan. Econ. , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 71-100
    • Glosten, L.R.1    Milgrom, P.R.2
  • 32
    • 84977728940 scopus 로고
    • Measuring the information content of stock trades
    • Hasbrouck J. Measuring the information content of stock trades. J. Finan. 1991, 46(1):179-207.
    • (1991) J. Finan. , vol.46 , Issue.1 , pp. 179-207
    • Hasbrouck, J.1
  • 33
    • 0002920214 scopus 로고
    • Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes
    • Hawkes A.G. Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes. Biometrika 1971, 58(1):83-90.
    • (1971) Biometrika , vol.58 , Issue.1 , pp. 83-90
    • Hawkes, A.G.1
  • 34
    • 0042412061 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the ETAS model of seismicity
    • Helmstetter A., Sornette D. Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the ETAS model of seismicity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2003, 30(11):1576.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , Issue.11 , pp. 1576
    • Helmstetter, A.1    Sornette, D.2
  • 35
    • 43649099090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?
    • Hess D., Huang H., Niessen A. How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?. Finan. Mark. Portfolio Manag. 2008, 22(2):127-146.
    • (2008) Finan. Mark. Portfolio Manag. , vol.22 , Issue.2 , pp. 127-146
    • Hess, D.1    Huang, H.2    Niessen, A.3
  • 36
    • 84862006758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Clustering of order arrivals, price impact and trade path optimisation
    • Ecole Polytechnique
    • Hewlett P. Clustering of order arrivals, price impact and trade path optimisation. Workshop on Financial Modeling with Jump Processes 2006, Ecole Polytechnique.
    • (2006) Workshop on Financial Modeling with Jump Processes
    • Hewlett, P.1
  • 38
    • 84879325858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Financialization and structural change in commodity futures markets
    • Irwin S.H., Sanders D.R. Financialization and structural change in commodity futures markets. J. Agri. Appl. Econ. 2012, 44(3):371-396.
    • (2012) J. Agri. Appl. Econ. , vol.44 , Issue.3 , pp. 371-396
    • Irwin, S.H.1    Sanders, D.R.2
  • 39
    • 0000859303 scopus 로고
    • Continuous auctions and insider trading
    • Kyle A.S. Continuous auctions and insider trading. Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. 1985, 53(6):1315-1335.
    • (1985) Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. , vol.53 , Issue.6 , pp. 1315-1335
    • Kyle, A.S.1
  • 41
    • 33846297715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book
    • Large J. Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book. J. Finan. Mark. 2007, 10(1):1-25.
    • (2007) J. Finan. Mark. , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-25
    • Large, J.1
  • 43
    • 51249182136 scopus 로고
    • The asymptotic behaviour of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes
    • Ogata Y. The asymptotic behaviour of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 1978, 30(1):243-261.
    • (1978) Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. , vol.30 , Issue.1 , pp. 243-261
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 44
    • 0012346731 scopus 로고
    • Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes
    • Ogata Y. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1988, 83(401):9-27.
    • (1988) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.83 , Issue.401 , pp. 9-27
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 45
    • 51249182322 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation of Hawkes' self-exciting point processes
    • Ozaki T. Maximum likelihood estimation of Hawkes' self-exciting point processes. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 1979, 31(1):145-155.
    • (1979) Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. , vol.31 , Issue.1 , pp. 145-155
    • Ozaki, T.1
  • 46
    • 84860324982 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis
    • Phillips P.C.B., Yu J. Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis. Quant. Econ. 2011, 2(3):455-491.
    • (2011) Quant. Econ. , vol.2 , Issue.3 , pp. 455-491
    • Phillips, P.C.B.1    Yu, J.2
  • 47
    • 77953911580 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of economic news on commodity Prices: is gold just another commodity?
    • Roache S.K., Rossi M. The effects of economic news on commodity Prices: is gold just another commodity?. Quart. Rev. Econ. Finan. 2010, 50:377-385.
    • (2010) Quart. Rev. Econ. Finan. , vol.50 , pp. 377-385
    • Roache, S.K.1    Rossi, M.2
  • 48
    • 0002677397 scopus 로고
    • Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly
    • Samuelson P.A. Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly. Ind. Manag. Rev. 1965, 6:41-49.
    • (1965) Ind. Manag. Rev. , vol.6 , pp. 41-49
    • Samuelson, P.A.1
  • 50
    • 67649863685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Limits of declustering methods for disentangling exogenous from endogenous events in time series with foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks
    • Sornette D., Utkin S. Limits of declustering methods for disentangling exogenous from endogenous events in time series with foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks. Phys. Rev. E 2009, 79(6):061110.
    • (2009) Phys. Rev. E , vol.79 , Issue.6 , pp. 061110
    • Sornette, D.1    Utkin, S.2
  • 51
    • 59449104598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 2006-2008 oil bubble: evidence of speculation, and prediction
    • Sornette D., Woodard R., Zhou W.-X. The 2006-2008 oil bubble: evidence of speculation, and prediction. Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 2009, 388(8):1571-1576.
    • (2009) Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. , vol.388 , Issue.8 , pp. 1571-1576
    • Sornette, D.1    Woodard, R.2    Zhou, W.-X.3
  • 53
    • 79952580342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commodity index investing and commodity futures prices
    • Stoll H.R., Whaley R.E. Commodity index investing and commodity futures prices. J. Appl. Finan. 2010, 20(1):7-46.
    • (2010) J. Appl. Finan. , vol.20 , Issue.1 , pp. 7-46
    • Stoll, H.R.1    Whaley, R.E.2
  • 54
    • 79960194801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commodity index investing: speculation or diversification?
    • Stoll H.R., Whaley R.E. Commodity index investing: speculation or diversification?. J. Alter. Invest. 2011, 14(1):50-60.
    • (2011) J. Alter. Invest. , vol.14 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-60
    • Stoll, H.R.1    Whaley, R.E.2
  • 57
    • 84874560663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Market making" in an order book model and its impact on the spread
    • Springer Verlag
    • Toke I.M. "Market making" in an order book model and its impact on the spread. Econophysics of Order-driven Markets 2011, 49-64. Springer Verlag.
    • (2011) Econophysics of Order-driven Markets , pp. 49-64
    • Toke, I.M.1
  • 59
    • 84894277100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Price formation
    • UNCTAD, United Nations publications, New York and Geneva
    • UNCTAD Price formation. Financialized Commodity Markets: the Role of Information 2011, United Nations publications, New York and Geneva.
    • (2011) Financialized Commodity Markets: the Role of Information


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.