An uncertainty assessment framework for forest planning adaptation to climate change

Forest Policy and Economics

Volumn 41, Issue , 2014, Pages 1-11

  Petr, Michal ^a,b   Boerboom, Luc ^a   Ray, Duncan ^b   van der Veen, Anne ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TWENTE   (Netherlands)

^b FOREST RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Decision making; Forest planning; Risk perception; Uncertainty management; Uncertainty recognition

Indexed keywords

EID: 84894243309     PISSN: 13899341     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.12.002     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Adger W.N., Dessai S., Goulden M., Hulme M., Lorenzoni I., Nelson D.R., Naess L.O., Wolf J., Wreford A. Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?. Clim. Change 2009, 93:335-354.
2. Babbie E. The Practice of Social Research 2010, Wadsworth. 12th ed.
3. Bellamy R., Hulme M. Beyond the tipping point: understanding perceptions of abrupt climate change and their implications. Weather Clim. Soc. 2011, 3:48-60.
4. Bijlsma R.M., Bots P.W.G., Wolters H.A., Hoekstra A.Y. An empirical analysis of stakeholders' influence on policy development: the role of uncertainty handling. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16.
5. Blaikie P.M. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters 1994, Routledge.
6. Bolte A., Ammer C., Lof M., Madsen P., Nabuurs G.-J., Schall P., Spathelf P., Rock J. Adaptive forest management in central Europe: climate change impacts, strategies and integrative concept. Scand. J. For. Res. 2009, 24:473-482.
7. Brugnach M., Dewulf A., Pahl-Wostl C., Taillieu T. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. Ecol. Soc. 2008, 13.
8. DEFRA A Strategy for England's Trees, Woods and Forests 2007.
9. Field A.P. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS 2009, SAGE Publications Ltd. 3rd ed.
10. Forestry Commission OGB36 Forest Design Planning 2007.
11. Forestry Commission Forestry Statistics 2012, Forestry Commission, Edinburgh.
12. Forestry Commission Scotland The Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006.
13. Forestry Commission Wales Woodlands for Wales. The Welsh Assembly Government's Strategy for Woodlands and Trees 2009.
14. Fowler F.J. Improving Survey Questions: Design and Evaluation (Applied Social Research Methods) 1995, SAGE.
15. Gabbert S., Ittersum M., Kroeze C., Stalpers S., Ewert F., Alkan Olsson J. Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users' perspective. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2010, 10:131-143.
16. Gardiner B.A., Suarez J., Achim A., Hale S., Nicoll B. ForestGALES: A PC-based Wind Risk Model for British Forests (User's Guide) 2006.
17. Gibbons J.D. Nonparametric Statistics An Introduction 1993, SAGE Publications, Inc.
18. Gregory R., Ohlson D., Arvai J. Deconstructing adaptive management: criteria for applications to environmental management. Ecol. Appl. 2006, 16:2411-2425.
19. Holopainen M., Mäkinen A., Rasinmäki J., Hyytiäinen K., Bayazidi S., Pietilä I. Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in stand-level net present value estimates. For. Policy Econ. 2010, 12:377-386.
20. Hoogstra M., Schanz H. Future orientation and planning in forestry: a comparison of forest managers' planning horizons in Germany and the Netherlands. Eur. J. For. Res. 2009, 128:1-11.
21. Hunter L., Rinner L. The association between environmental perspective and knowledge and concern with species diversity. Soc. Nat. Res. 2004, 17:517-532.
22. Kangas A.S., Kangas J. Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis. For. Policy Econ. 2004, 6:169-188.
23. Leskinen P., Viitanen J., Kangas A., Kangas J. Alternatives to incorporate uncertainty and risk attitude in multicriteria evaluation of forest plans 2006, 52:304-312.
24. Lindner M., Sohngen B., Joyce L.A., Price D.T., Bernier P.Y., Karjalainen T. Integrated forestry assessments for climate change impacts. For. Ecol. Manag. 2002, 162:117-136.
25. Lindner M., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Kolström M., Green T., Reguera R., Maroschek M., Seidl R., Lexer M.J., Netherer S., Schopf A., Kremer A., Delzon S., Barbati A., Marchetti M., Corona P. Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation 2008.
26. Martin W.E., Martin I.M., Kent B. The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: the case of wildfire in high risk communities. J. Environ. Manag. 2009, 91:489-498.
27. McDaniels T., Axelrod L. Characterizing perception of ecological risk. Risk Anal. 1995, 15:575-588.
28. McDaniels T.L., Axelrod L.J., Cavanagh N.S., Slovic P. Perception of ecological risk to water environments. Risk Anal. 1997, 17:341-352.
29. Meijer I.S.M., Hekkert M.P., Faber J., Smits R.E.H.M. Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework. Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy 2006, 2:214-240.
30. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Jenkins G.J., Booth B.B.B., Brown C.C., Clark R.T., Collins M., Harris G.R., Kendon E.J., Betts R.A., Brown S.J., Humphrey K.A., McCarthy M.P., McDonald R.E., Stephens A., Wallace C., Warren R., Wilby R,.J.M. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
31. Newig J., Pahl-Wostl C., Sigel K. The role of public participation in managing uncertainty in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Eur. Environ. 2005, 15:333-343.
32. O'Connor R.E., Bard R.J., Fisher A. Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change. Risk Anal. 1999, 19:461-471.
33. O'Connor R.E., Yarnal B., Dow K., Jocoy C.L., Carbone G.J. Feeling at risk matters: water managers and the decision to use forecasts. Risk Anal. 2005, 25:1265-1275.
34. Ogden A.E., Innes J. Incorporating climate change adaptation considerations into forest management planning in the boreal forest. Int. For. Rev. 2007, 9:713-733.
35. Pukkala T. Multiple risks in multi-objective forest planning: integration and importance. For. Ecol. Manag. 1998, 111:265-284.
36. Pyatt G., Ray D., Fletcher J. An Ecological Site Classification for Forestry in Great Britain 2001.
37. R Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2011.
38. Raaijmakers R., Krywkow J., Veen A. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation. Nat. Hazards 2008, 46:307-322.
39. Ray D. Impacts of Climate Change on Forestry in Scotland - A Synopsis of Spatial Modelling Research 2008.
40. Ray D., Morison J., Broadmeadow M. Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation in England's Woodlands 2010.
41. Read D.J., Freer-Smith P.H., Morison J.I.L., Hanley N., West C.C., Snowdon P. Combating Climate Change - A Role for UK Forests. An Assessment of the Potential of the UK's Trees and Woodlands to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change 2009.
42. Refsgaard J.C., Van der Sluijs J.P., Hojberg A.L., Vanrolleghem P.A. Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - a framework and guidance. Environ. Model Softw. 2007, 22:1543-1556.
43. Revelle W. psych: Procedures for Psychological, Psychometric, and Personality Research 2011.
44. Slovic P. Perception of risk. Science 1987, 236(80):280-285.
45. Spittlehouse D.L. Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management. For. Chron. 2005, 81:691-695.
46. Spittlehouse D.L., Stewart R.B. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC J. Ecosyst. Manag. 2003, 4:1-11.
47. Stedman R.C., Davidson D.J., Wellstead A. Risk and climate change: perceptions of key policy actors in Canada. Risk analysis an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 2004, 24:1395-1406.
48. SurveyMonkey 2011, http://www.surveymonkey.com.
49. Van Asselt M.B.A. Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: The PRIMA Approach to Decision Support 2000, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
50. Van Asselt M.B.A. The complex significance of uncertainty in a risk era: logics, manners and strategies in use. Int. J. Risk Assess. Manag. 2005, 5:125-158.
51. Van Asselt M.B.A., Rotmans J. Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling - from positivism to pluralism. Clim. Change 2002, 54:75-105.
52. Walker W.E., Harremoës P., Rotmans J., Sluijs J.P., van der Asselt M.B.A., van Janssen P., Krauss von M.P.K. Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr. Assess. 2003, 4:5-17.
53. Warmink J.J., Janssen J., Booij M.J., Krol M.S. Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models 2010, 25:1518-1527.
54. Wickham H. ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis 2009.
55. Zeller R.A., Carmines E.G. Measurement in the Social Sciences: The Link Between Theory and Data. CUP Archive 1980.