Contours of a resilient global future

Sustainability (Switzerland)

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 123-135

  Gerst, Michael D ^a,b   Raskin, Paul D ^a,b   Rockström, Johan ^c  

^a DARTMOUTH COLLEGE   (United States)

^b TELLUS INSTITUTE   (United States)

^c STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Great transition; Planetary boundaries; Sustainability science; Transformative scenarios

Indexed keywords

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; SOCIAL CHANGE; SUSTAINABILITY; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE;

EID: 84894024565     PISSN: 20711050     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/su6010123     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Dansgaard, W.; Johnsen, S.J.; Clausen, H.B.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Gundestrup, N.S.; Hammer, C.U.; Hvidberg, C.S.; Steffensen, J.P.; Sveinjörnsdottir, A.E.; Jouzel, J.; et al. Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 1993, 364, 218-220.
2. Petit, J.R.; Jouzel, J.; Raynaud, D.; Barkov, N.I.; Barnola, J.-M.; Basile, I.; Bender, M.; Chappellaz, J.; Davis, M.; Delaygue, G.; et al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 1999, 399, 429-436.
3. Crutzen, P.J. Geology of mankind. Nature 2002, 415, doi:10.1038/415023a.
4. Steffen, W.; Crutzen, P.J.; McNeill, J.R. The Anthropocene: Are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature. Ambio 2007, 36, 614-621.
5. Rockström, J.; Steffen, W.; Noone, K.; Persson, A.; Chapin, F.S., III; Lambin, E.F.; Lenton, T.M.; Scheffer, M.; Folke, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 2009, 461, 472-475.
6. Rockstrom, J.; Steffen, W.; Noone, K.; Persson, A.; Chapin, F.S.I.; Lambin, E.; Lenton, T.M.; Scheffer, M.; Folke, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; et al. Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc. 2009, 14, 1-33.
7. Raskin, P.D.; Electris, C.; Rosen, R.A. The century ahead: Searching for sustainability. Sustainability 2010, 2, 2626-2651.
8. Pickett, K.; Wilkinson, R. The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger; Bloomsburg Press: New York, NY, USA, 2009.
9. Kawachi, I.; Kennedy, B.P.; Lochner, K.; Prothrow-Stith, D. Social capital, income inequality, and mortality. Am. J. Public Health 1997, 87, 1491-1498.
10. Sen, A. Development as Freedom; Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK, 1999.
11. Griggs, D.; Stafford-Smith, M.; Gaffney, O.; Rockström, J.; Öhman, M.C.; Shyamsundar, P.; Steffen, W.; Glaser, G.; Kanie, N.; Noble, I.; et al. Policy: Sustainable development goals for people and planet. Nature 2013, 495, 305-307.
12. Swart, R.J.; Raskin, P.; Robinson, J. The problem of the future: Sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14, 137-146.
13. Moss, R.H.; Edmonds, J.A.; Hibbard, K.A.; Manning, M.R.; Rose, S.K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463, 747-756.
14. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Island Press: Washington, DC, USA, 2005.
15. Van Vuuren, D.P., Kok, M., Eds.; Roads from Rio+20: Pathways to Achieve Global Sustainability Goals by 2050; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2012.
16. Nakicenovic, N.; Swart, R. Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2000.
17. Arnell, N.W. Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14, 31-52.
18. Schwartz, P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World; Currency Doubleday: New York, NY, USA, 1991.
19. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5); UNEP: Nairobi, Kenya, 2012.
20. Parry, M.L.; Rosenzweig, C.; Iglesias, A.; Livermore, M.; Fischer, G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 2004, 14, 53-67.
21. Nilsson, M.; Nilsson, L.J.; Hildingsson, R.; Stripple, J.; Eikeland, P.O. The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies. Futures 2011, 43, 1117-1128.
22. Vergragt, P.J.; Quist, J. Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2011, 78, 747-755.
23. Gallopin, G.; Raskin, P.D. Global Sustainability: Bending the Curve; Routledge: New York, NY, USA, 2002.
24. Hunt, D.V.L.; Lombardi, D.R.; Atkinson, S.; Barber, A.R.G.; Barnes, M.; Boyko, C.T.; Brown, J.; Bryson, J.; Butler, D.; Caputo, S.; et al. Scenario archetypes: Converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability 2012, 4, 740-772.
25. Schweizer, V.J.; Elmar, K. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 2012, 7, 044011.
26. United Nations Secretary-General's High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability. Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing; United Nations Secretary-General's High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability: New York, NY, USA, 2012.
27. Electris, C.; Raskin, P.; Rosen, R.; Stutz, J. The Century Ahead: Four Global Scenarios; Technical Documentation 2011 Update; Tellus Institute: Boston, MA, USA, 2011.
28. Raskin, P.; Banuri, T.; Gallopin, G.; Gutman, P.; Hammond, A.; Kates, R.; Swart, R. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of Times Ahead; Stockholm Environment Institute: Boston, MA, USA, 2002.
29. Raskin, P.D. World lines: A framework for exploring global pathways. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 65, 461-470.
30. Inglehart, R.; Baker, W.E. Modernization, cultural change, and the persistence of traditional values. Am. Sociol. Rev. 2000, 65, 19-51.
31. Smith, A.; Stirling, A.; Berkhout, F. The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Res. Policy 2005, 34, 1491-1510.
32. Geels, F.; Schot, J. Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Res. Policy 2007, 36, 399-417.
33. Carpenter, S.R.; Bennett, E.M. Reconsideration of the planetary boundary for phosphorus. Environ. Res. Lett. 2011, 6, 014009.
34. Running, S.W. A measurable planetary boundary for the biosphere. Science 2012, 337, 1458-1459.
35. Bass, S. Planetary boundaries: Keep off the grass. Nat. Rep. Clim. Change 2009, 3, 113-114.
36. Lewis, S.L. We must set planetary boundaries wisely. Nature 2012, 485, doi:10.1038/485417a.
37. Schlesinger, W.H. Planetary boundaries: Thresholds risk prolonged degradation. Nat. Rep. Clim. Change 2009, 3, 112-113.
38. Barnosky, A.D.; Hadly, E.A.; Bascompte, J.; Berlow, E.L.; Brown, J.H.; Fortelius, M.; Getz, W.M.; Harte, J.; Hastings, A.; Marquet, P.A.; et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature 2012, 486, 52-58.
39. Cardinale, B.J.; Duffy, J.E.; Gonzalez, A.; Hooper, D.U.; Perrings, C.; Venail, P.; Narwani, A.; Mace, G.M.; Tilman, D.; Wardle, D.A.; et al. Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity. Nature 2012, 486, 59-67.
40. Reid, W.V.; Chen, D.; Goldfarb, L.; Hackmann, H.; Lee, Y.T.; Mokhele, K.; Ostrom, E.; Raivio, K.; Rockström, J.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; et al. Earth system science for global sustainability: Grand challenges. Science 2010, 330, 916-917.