Modeling grade progression in an active surveillance study

Statistics in Medicine

Volumn 33, Issue 6, 2014, Pages 930-939

  Inoue, Lurdes Y T ^a   Trock, Bruce J ^b   Partin, Alan W ^b   Carter, Herbert B ^b   Etzioni, Ruth ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b DEPARTMENT OF PATHOLOGY   (United States)

^c Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Prostate cancer; Simulation modeling

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; PROSTATE CANCER; SIMULATION MODELING;

BAYES THEOREM; BIOPSY; BIOSTATISTICS; CELL DEDIFFERENTIATION; COHORT STUDIES; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE PROGRESSION; HUMANS; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MALE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; NEOPLASM GRADING; PROSTATECTOMY; PROSTATIC NEOPLASMS; WATCHFUL WAITING;

EID: 84893781704     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: 10970258     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sim.6003     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Draisma G, Postma R, Schroder FH, Kwast van der TH, de Koning HJ. Gleason score, age and screening: modeling dedifferentiation in prostate cancer. International Journal of Cancer 2006; 119: 2366-2371.
2. Pashayan N, Pharoah P, Neal DE, Hamdy F, Donovan J, Martin RM, Greenberg D, Duffy SW. PSA-detected prostate cancer and the potential for dedifferentiation-estimating the proportion capable of progression. International Journal of Cancer 2011; 128: 1462-1470.
3. Tseng KS, Landis P, Epstein JI, Trock BJ, Carter HB. Risk stratification of men choosing surveillance for low risk prostate cancer. Journal of Urology 2010; 183: 1779-1785.
4. Porten SP, Whitson JM, Cowan JE, Cooperberg MR, Shinohara K, Perez N Greene KL, Meng MV, Carroll PR. Changes in prostate cancer grade on serial biopsy in men undergoing active surveillance. Journal of Clinical Oncology 2011; 29: 2795-2800.
5. Warlick C, Trock B, Landis P, Epstein J, Carter H. Delayed versus immediate surgical intervention and prostate cancer outcome. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2006; 98: 355-357.
6. Dall'Era MA, Konety BR, Cowan JE, Shinohara K, Stauf F, Cooperberg MR, Meng MV, Kane CJ, Perez N, Master VA, Carroll PR. Active surveillance for the management of prostate cancer in a contemporary cohort. Cancer 2008; 112: 2664-2670.
7. Newcomb LF, Brooks JD, Carroll PR, Feng Z, Gleave ME, Nelson PS, Thompson IM, Lin DW. Canary prostate active surveillance study: design of a multi-institutional active surveillance cohort and biorepository. Urology 2010; 75: 407-413.
8. Tosoian JJ, Trock BJ, Landis P, Feng Z, Epstein JI, Partin AW, Walsh PC, Carter HB. Active surveillance program for prostate cancer: an update of the johns hopkins experience. Journal of Clinical Oncology 2011; 29: 2185-2190.
9. Klotz L, Zhang L, Lam A, Nam R, Mamedov A, Loblaw A. Clinical results of long-term follow-up of a large active surveillance cohort with localized prostate cancer. Journal of Clinical Oncology 2010; 28: 126-31.
10. Donovan J, Hamdy F, Neal D, Peters T, Oliver S, Brindle L, Jewell D, Powell P, Gillatt D, Dedman D, Mills N, Smith M, Noble S, Lane A. Prostate testing for cancer and treatment (ProtecT) feasibility study. Health Technology Assessment (Winchester England) 2003; 7: 1-88.
11. Lane JA, Hamdy FC, Martin RM, Turner EL, Neal DE, Donovan JL. Latest results from the UK trials evaluating prostate cancer screening and treatment: the CAP and ProtecT studies. European Journal of Cancer 2010; 46: 3095-3101.
12. Pinsky P, Parnes H, Ford L. Estimating rates of true high-grade disease in the prostate cancer prevention trial. Cancer Prevention Research 2008; 1: 182-186.
13. Epstein J, Feng Z, Trock B, Pierorazio P. Upgrading and downgrading of prostate cancer from biopsy to radical prostatectomy: incidence and predictive factors using the modified gleason grading system and factoring in tertiary grades. European Urology 2012; 61: 1019-1024.
14. Ross AE, Loeb S, Landis F, Partin AW, Epstein JI, Kettermann A, Feng Z, Carter HB, Walsh PC. Prostate-specific antigen kinetics during follow-up are an unreliable trigger for intervention in a prostate cancer surveillance program. Journal of Clinical Oncology 2010; 28: 2810-2816.
15. Pepe M. The Statistical Evaluation of Medical Tests for Classification and Prediction. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2003.
16. Gustafson P. Measurement Error and Misclassification in Statistics and Epidemiology: Impacts and Bayesian Adjustments. Chapman and Hall: New York, 2003.
17. Broemelling L. Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine. Wiley: New York, 2007.
18. Joseph L, Gyorkos TW, Coupal L. Bayesian estimation of disease prevalence and the parameters of diagnostic tests in the absence of a gold standard. American Journal of Epidemiology 1995; 141: 263-272.
19. Shen Y, Zelen M. Screening sensitivity and sojourn time from breast cancer early detection clinical trials: mammograms and physical examinations. Journal of Clinical Oncology 2001; 19: 3490-3499.
20. Shen Y, Zelen M. Robust modeling in screening studies: estimation of sensitivity and preclinical sojourn time distribution. Biostatistics 2005; 6: 604-614.
21. Zelen M, Feinleib M. On the theory of screening for chronic diseases. Biometrika 1969; 56: 601-614.