What follows the storm? Research on the effect of disasters on conflict and cooperation

Global Change, Peace and Security

Volumn 26, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 55-70

  Streich, Philip A ^a   Mislan, David Bell ^b  

^a POMONA COLLEGE   (United States)

^b AMERICAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

conflict; cooperation; disaster; disaster diplomacy; rivalry

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893755152     PISSN: 14781158     EISSN: 14781166     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/14781158.2013.837040     Document Type: Review

References (117)

1. Ilan Kelman, Disaster Diplomacy (London: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
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9. William Anderson, 'Military Organizations in Natural Disaster: Established and Emergent Norms', American Behavioral Scientist 13, no. 3 (1970): 415-22.
10. Ilan Kelman and Theo Koukis, 'Preface', Cambridge Review of International Affairs 14, no. 1 (2000): 214.
11. Philippe Le Billon and Arno Waizenegger, 'Peace in the Wake of Disaster? Secessionist Conflicts and the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami', Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 32, no. 3 (2007): 411-27
12. Jean-Christophe Gaillard, Elsa Clavé, and Ilan Kelman, 'Wave of Peace? Tsunami Disaster Diplomacy in Aceh, Indonesia', Geoforum 39, no. 1 (2008): 511-26.
13. Dynes, 'The Functioning of Expanding Organizations in Community Disasters
14. Enrico Quarantelli and Russell Dynes, 'Response to Social Crisis and Disaster', Annual Review of Sociology 3 (1977): 23-49
15. Ilan Kelman, 'Acting on Disaster Diplomacy', Journal of International Affairs 59, no. 2 (2006): 222.
16. Robert Mandel, 'Security and Natural Disasters', Journal of Conflict Studies 22, no. 2 (2002): 118-43
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21. Travis Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes: On the Relationship between Natural Disaster and Interstate Conflict', Global Change, Peace and Security 22, no. 2 (2010): 155-74.
22. A. Cooper Drury and Richard Olson, 'Disasters and Political Unrest: An Empirical Investigation', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 6 (1998): 153-61.
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24. Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes', 167. Counter-intuitively, Nelson details how China initiated attacks on the Taiwanese islands of Quemoy and Matsu (1954) and on the Sino-Indian border (1959) after it experienced devastating floods
25. Stephen Kinzer, 'Earthquakes Help Warm Greek-Turkish Relations', New York Times, September 13, 1999, http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/13/world/earthquakes-help-warm-greek-turkish-relations.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
26. James Ker-Lindsay, 'Greek-Turkish Rapprochement: The Impact of "Disaster Diplomacy"?', Cambridge Review of International Affairs 14, no. 1 (2000): 215-32
27. James Ker-Lindsay, Crisis and Conciliation: A Year of Rapprochement between Greece and Turkey (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
28. Ker-Lindsay, 'Greek-Turkish Rapprochement', 222.
29. Michael Glantz, 'Climate-Related Disaster Diplomacy: A US-Cuban Case Study', Cambridge Review of International Affairs 14, no. 1 (2000): 233-53.
30. Ailsa Holloway, 'Drought Emergency, Yes... Drought Disaster, No: Southern Africa 1991-93', Cambridge Review of International Affairs 14, no. 1 (2000): 254-76.
31. Kelman, 'Acting on Disaster Diplomacy'.
32. Kelman, 'Acting on Disaster Diplomacy'.
33. Maaike Warnaar, 'Shaken not Stirred: Iranian Foreign Policy and Domestic Disaster' (Master's thesis, University of Amsterdam, 2005).
34. N. Emel Ganapati, Ilan Kelman, and Theo Koukis, 'Analyzing Greek-Turkish Disaster-Related Cooperation: A Disaster Diplomacy Perspective', Cooperation and Conflict 45, no. 2 (2010): 162-85.
35. Ker-Lindsay, Crisis and Conciliation, 176-7.
36. Kelman, Disaster Diplomacy.
37. Kelman, Disaster Diplomacy, 139.
38. The Diplomat, 'The Limits of Disaster Diplomacy', April 17, 2011, http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/04/17/the-limits-of-disaster-diplomacy/
39. 'Disaster Diplomacy Doesn't get off the Ground for Israel, Turkey', Israelity Blog, October 25, 2011, http://israelity.com/2011/10/25/disaster-diplomacy-doesnt-get-off-the-ground-for-israel-turkey/
40. 'Disaster Diplomacy: The Gift Horse', The Guardian, October 30, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/30/disaster-diplomacy-the-gift-horse
41. Mandel, 'Security and Natural Disasters'.
42. Mandel, 'Security and Natural Disasters', 128.
43. Tom Raum, 'Analysis: US Tsunami Aid May Help Image', USA Today, January 4, 2005, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-01-04-tsunami-aid-analysis_x.htm
44. Mandel, 'Security and Natural Disasters', 135
45. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches
46. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches, 1.
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48. Karen Rasler, 'Shocks, Expectancy Revision, and the De-escalation of Protracted Conflicts: The Israeli-Palestinian Case', Journal of Peace Research 37 (2000): 699-720
49. William Thompson, 'Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics', International Studies Quarterly 45 (2001): 557-86
50. Thomas Homer-Dixon, 'On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict', International Security 16, no. 2 (1991): 76-116
51. Carol Ember and Melvin Ember, 'Resource Unpredictability, Mistrust, and War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (1992): 242-62
52. Brancati, 'Political Aftershocks
53. Nel and Righarts 'Natural Disasters
54. Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes
55. However, articles in the disaster diplomacy literature cover the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami's role in ending fighting in Aceh, see Ilan Kelman, 'Tsunami Diplomacy: Will the 26 December, 2004 Tsunami Bring Peace to the Affected Countries?', Sociological Research Online 10, no. 1 (2005), www.socresonline.org.uk/10/1/kelman.html
56. Le Billon and Waizenegger, 'Peace in the Wake of Disaster?
57. Gaillard et al., 'Wave of Peace
58. Allen Barton, Communities in Disaster: A Sociological Analysis of Collective Stress (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1970), 38.
59. Quarantelli and Dynes, 'Response to Social Crisis', 23-4.
60. Enrico Quarantelli et al., 'A Heuristic Approach to Future Disasters and Crises: New, Old, and In-Between Types', in Handbook of Disaster Research, ed. Russell Dynes et al. (New York: Springer, 2006), 16-41.
61. Wolf Dombrowsky, 'Again and Again: Is a Disaster What We Call a "Disaster"?', in What is a Disaster?, ed. Enrico Quarantelli (New York: Routledge, 1998), 21.
62. Wolf Dombrowsky, 'Again and Again: Is a Disaster What We Call a "Disaster"?', in What is a Disaster?, ed. Enrico Quarantelli (New York: Routledge, 1998), 23.
63. Enrico Quarantelli, 'Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities', Disaster Research Center Monograph Series 450 (Newark, DE: University of Delaware, 2008).
64. Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes', 163-4.
65. Many analyses use the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), which contains data on around 13,000 disasters dating back to 1900. EM-DAT relies on accounts from governments, the UN, NGOs, the World Bank, reinsurance companies, and the press, among others, see CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters), 'EMDAT: The International Disaster Database', http://www.emdat.be
66. Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes', 164
67. Quantitative analyses such as Nelson's are the exception to this since they must specify measurements and cutoffs for all variables. Data on international and intrastate conflicts can come from a number of datasets, including the Correlates of War (COW) project, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset, Integrated Data for Events Analysis (IDEA) and Minorities at Risk (MAR) datasets, Doug Bond et al., 'Integrated Data for Events Analysis (IDEA): An Event Typology for Automated Events Data Development', Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 6 (2003): 733-45
68. Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), 'Minorities at Risk Project' (College Park, MD: CIDCM, 2005).
69. Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), 184.
70. John Vasquez, The War Puzzle (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993), 23.
71. Jack Levy and William Thompson, Causes of War (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010), 5.
72. Diehl for instance identifies interstate rivals as dyads with at least three militarized disputes in the last 15 years, Paul Diehl, 'Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries', Journal of Politics 47 (1985): 1203-11.
73. Vasquez, The War Puzzle, 76.
74. Vasquez, The War Puzzle, 76.
75. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches'.
76. Ilan Kelman, 'Letter to the Editor', Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 6 (2007): 973.
77. Gaillard et al., 'Wave of Peace?', 511-12.
78. Ganapati et al., 'Analyzing Greek-Turkish Disaster-Related Cooperation', 164.
79. Ilan Kelman, 'Island Security and Disaster Diplomacy in the Context of Climate Change', Les Cahiers de la Securite 63 (2006): 61.
80. Kelman and Koukis, 'Preface', 214.
81. Kelman, 'Letter to the Editor', 973.
82. Kelman, 'Acting on Disaster Diplomacy', 217-18.
83. For more on progressive research programs, see Imre Lakatos, 'Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programs', in Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge, ed. Imre Lakatos and Alan Musgrave (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1970), 170-96
84. Colin Elman and Miriam Elman, Progress in International Relations Theory (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).
85. Kenneth Waltz, Man, the State, and War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959).
86. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches'.
87. Chae-Lin Lee, China and Japan: New Economic Diplomacy (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1984), 1-29.
88. Michael Green, Japan's Reluctant Realism (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), 77-9.
89. Kent Calder, 'China and Japan's Simmering Rivalry', Foreign Affairs 85, no. 2 (2006): 132.
90. Suisheng Zhao, 'A State-Led Nationalism: The Patriotic Education Campaign in Post-Tiananmen China', Communist and Post-Communist Studies 31, no. 3 (1998): 287-302.
91. Peter Gries, China's New Nationalism (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2004), 4
92. Matthew Forney, 'Why China Loves to Hate Japan', Time, December 10, 2005, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1139759,00.html.
93. The Ryukyu Islands, under Japanese control for two centuries, were formally annexed by Japan in 1872 and incorporated into Japan's prefecture system as Okinawa Prefecture in 1879.
94. The Republic of China (Taiwan) also claims sovereignty over the islands.
95. Green, Japan's Reluctant Realism, 84-5.
96. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979)
97. Stephen Walt, The Origin of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell, 1987)
98. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).
99. Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes'.
100. Eric Johnston, 'Operation Tomodachi a Huge Success, but was it a One-Off?', Japan Times, March 3, 2012, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/03/03/national/operation-tomodachi-a-huge-success-but-was-it-a-one-off/#.Ud4hDHJSTz3
101. Andrew Quinn, 'Clinton Assures Japan on Islands, Invites Abe to U.S. in February', Reuters, January 18, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-japan-usa-idUSBRE90H1AX20130118
102. Ralph White, Fearful Warriors: A Psychological Profile of U.S.-Soviet Relations (Mankato, MN: The Free Press, 1984)
103. Ralph White, Psychology and the Prevention of Nuclear War (New York: NYU Press, 1986)
104. M. Brewset Smith, 'Realistic Empathy: A Key to Sensible International Relations', Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 10, no. 4 (2004): 335-9
105. Jonathan Keller and Yi Yang, 'Empathy and Strategic Interaction in Crises: A Poliheuristic Perspective', Foreign Policy Analysis 5, no. 2 (2009): 169-89.
106. Ker-Lindsay, 'Greek-Turkish Rapprochement
107. Mandel, 'Security and Natural Disasters
108. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches
109. The following citations on Chinese perceptions of the Japanese in the wake of 3/11 can be found in David Arase, 'The Impact of 3/11 on Japan and on Japan-China Relations' (paper prepared for International Studies Association annual meeting, San Diego, April 1, 2011).
110. 'Mutual Disaster-Relief Aid Brings Chinese and Japanese People Closer', Xinhuanet, March 3, 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-03/23/c_13794031.htm.
111. Xiao Xu, 'Japan's Big Society: A Chinese Perspective on the Earthquake', East Asia Forum, March 23, 2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/03/23/big-nation-and-big-society-to-deal-with-big-crisis-and-big-risk/
112. 'Chinese Approve of Relief Aid to Japan', People's Daily Online, March 18, 2011, http://english.people.com.cn/90882/7323632.html
113. For instance, the Democratic Peace is a dyadic-level phenomenon (no war has been fought between a pair of democracies) which originates with the state-level characteristic of whether a state is a democracy.
114. Akcinaroglu et al., 'Avalanches and Olive Branches'.
115. Kelman, 'Acting on Disaster Diplomacy', 229-31.
116. The connection between disasters and worldwide empathy might explain Nelson's observation that rivals do not capitalize on weakened rivals after disasters. In essence, global support for the victims might dissuade stronger states from taking aggressive action, Nelson, 'When Disaster Strikes
117. The authors thank an anonymous reviewer for thoughtful suggestions on this section