Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 189-190, Issue , 2014, Pages 91-104

  Tao, Fulu ^a   Zhang, Zhao ^b   Xiao, Dengpan ^a,c   Zhang, Shuai ^a   Rötter, Reimund P ^d   Shi, Wenjiao ^a   Liu, Yujie ^a   Wang, Meng ^a,c   Liu, Fengshan ^a,c   Zhang, He ^a,c  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^b BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

^d FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Climate change; Crop; Impact and adaptation; Phenology; Yield

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP PRODUCTION; GROWTH RATE; PHENOLOGY; SOLAR RADIATION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WHEAT; YIELD;

CHINA;

EID: 84893416718     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.013     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Asseng S., Foster I., Turner N.C. The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob. Change Biol. 2011, 17:997-1012.
2. Asseng F., Ewert I., Rosenzweig C., Jones J.W., Hatfield J.L. Quantifying uncertainties in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 2013, 10.1038/nclimate1916.
3. Challinor A.J., Simelton E.S., Fraser E.D.G., Hemming D., Collins M. Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environ. Res. Lett. 2010, 5:034012.
4. FAO, 2012. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FAO Statistical Databases; available at http://faostat.fao.org.
5. Jin S.B. China Wheat Cultivation 1961, 626. Agricultural Publisher, Beijing.
6. Liu Y., Tao F. Probabilistic change of wheat productivity and water use in China for global mean temperature changes of 1, 2, and 3°C. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2013, 52:14-129.
7. Licker R., Kucharik C.J., Doré T., Lindeman M.J., Makowski D. Climatic impacts on winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973-2010. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2013, 176:25-37.
8. Lobell D.B., Asner G.P. Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields. Science 2003, 299:1032.
9. Lobell D.B., Burke M.B. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2010, 150:1443-1452.
10. Lobell D.B., Schlenker W., Costa-Roberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 2011, 333:616-620.
11. Lobell D.B., Sibley A., Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio J. Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat. Clim. Change 2012, 2:186-189.
12. Long S.P., Humphries S., Falkowski P.G. Photoinhibition of photosynthesis in nature. Ann. Rev. Plant Physiol. Plant Mol. Biol. 1994, 45:633-662.
13. Olesen J.E., Trnka M., Kersebaum K.C., Skjelvag, Seguin B., Peltonen-Sainio P., Rossi F., Kozyra J., Micale F. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. Eur. J. Agron. 2011, 34:96-112.
14. Ortiz R., Sayre K.D., Govaerts B., Gupta R., Subbarao G.V., Ban T., Hodson D., Dixon J.A., Ortiz-Monasterio J.I., Reynolds M. Climate change: can wheat beat the heat?. Agric. Ecosys. Environ. 2008, 126:46-58.
15. Porter J.R., Gawith M. Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur. J. Agron. 1999, 10:23-36.
16. Prescott J.A. Evaporation from a water surface in relation to solar radiation. Trans. Royal Soc. Sci. Aust. 1940, 64:114-115.
17. Qiu J.J., Tang H.J., Frolking S., Boles S., Li C., Xiao X., Liu J., Zhuang Y.H., Qin X.G. Mapping single-, double-, and triple-crop agriculture in China at 0.5°×0.5° by combining county-scale census data with a remote sensing: derived land cover map. Geocarto Int. 2003, 18:3-13.
18. Stanhill G., Cohen S. Global dimming. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2001, 107:255-278.
19. Tao F., Yokozawa M., Xu Y., Hayashi Y., Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China 1981-2000. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2006, 138:82-92.
20. Tao F., Yokozawa M., Liu J., Zhang Z. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale in China and the impacts of recent climate trend. Clim. Res. 2008, 38:83-94.
21. Tao F., Zhang Z., Zhang S., Zhu Z., Shi W. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Clim. Res. 2012, 54:233-247.
22. Tao F., Zhang S., Zhang Z. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. Eur. J. Agron. 2012, 43:201-212.
23. Tao F., Zhang Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2013, 170:146-165.
24. Tong P.Y. Wheat cultivation zones of China 1992, 295. China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijing.
25. Welch J.R., Vincent J.R., Auffhammer M., Moya P.F., Dobermann A., Dawe D. Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. PNAS 2010, 107:14562-14567.
26. Xiong W., Conway D., Jiang J., Li Y., Lin E., Xu Y., Hui J., Calsamiglia-Mendlewicz S. Future cereal production in China: modelling the interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. The Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture-Phase II 2008, Final Report, AEA Group, UK.
27. You L., Rosegrant M.W., Wood S., Sun D. Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2009, 149:1009-1014.
28. Zhao G.C. Study on Chinese wheat planting regionalization (I). J. Triticeae Crops 2010, 30:886-895.
29. Zhang T., Huang Y. Estimating the impacts of warming trends on wheat and maize in China from 1980 to 2008 based on county level data. Int. J. Climatol. 2013, 33:699-708.
30. Zhang X., Chen S., Liu M., Pei D., Sun H. Improved water use efficiency associated with cultivars and agronomic management in the North China Plain. Agron. J. 2005, 783-790.
31. Zhang Y., Tang Y. Inclusion of photoinhibition in simulation of carbon dynamics of an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110:G01007. 10.1029/2005JG000021.
32. Zhou Y., He Z.H., Sui X.X., Xia X.C., Zhang X.K., Zhang G.S. Genetic improvement of grain yield and associated traits in the North China winter wheat regions from 1960 to 2000. Crop Sci. 2007, 47:245-253.