Expansion of the dengue transmission area in Brazil: The role of climate and cities

Tropical Medicine and International Health

Volumn 19, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 159-168

  Barcellos, Christovam ^a,c   Lowe, Rachel ^b  

^a INSTITUTO OSWALDO CRUZ   (Brazil)

^b Unitat de Dinàmica I Impacte Climàtic UDIC Institut Català de Ciències del Clima   (Spain)

^c INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

Climate change; Dengue epidemics; Disease diffusion; Urban health

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DENGUE FEVER; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH RISK; METROPOLITAN AREA; POPULATION DENSITY; PUBLIC HEALTH; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; BRAZIL; CITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS; EPIDEMIC; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; POPULATION DENSITY; URBAN POPULATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

BRAZIL;

DENGUE VIRUS GROUP;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DENGUE EPIDEMICS; DISEASE DIFFUSION; URBAN HEALTH;

BRAZIL; CITIES; CLIMATE; DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS;

EID: 84892678752     PISSN: 13602276     EISSN: 13653156     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/tmi.12227     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Banu S, Hu W, Hurst C & Tong S (2011) Dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region: impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors. Tropical Medicine & International Health 16, 598-607.
2. Barcellos C, Feitosa P, Damacena GN & Andreazzi AM (2010) Highways and outposts: economic development and health threats in the central Brazilian Amazon region. International Journal of Health Geographics 9, 30.
3. Barreto ML & Teixeira MG (2008) Dengue no Brasil: situação epidemiológica e contribuições para uma agenda de pesquisa. Estudos Avançados 22, 53-72.
4. Besag J, York J & Mollie A (1991) Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 43, 1-20.
5. Braga IA & Valle D (2007) Aedes aegypti: inseticidas, mecanismos de ação e resistência. Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde 16, 179-293.
6. Buczak AL, Koshute PT, Babin SM, Feighner BH & Lewis SH (2012) A data-driven epidemiological prediction method for dengue outbreaks using local and remote sensing data. BMC Medicine Informatics Decision Making 12, 124.
7. Caprara A, Lima JWO, Marinho ACP et al. (2009) Irregular water supply, household usage and dengue: a bio-social study in the Brazilian Northeast. Cadernos de Saúde Pública 25 (Suppl. 1), S125-S136.
8. Catão RC & Guimarães RB (2011) Mapeamento da reemergência do dengue no Brasil: 1981-2008. Hygeia 7, 173-185.
9. Chowell G, Cazelles G, Broutin H & Munayco CV (2011) The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú 1994-2008. BMC Infectious Diseases 11, 164.
10. Clayton DG & Kaldor J (1987) Empirical Bayes estimates of age standardized relative risks for use in disease mapping. Biometrics 43, 671-681.
11. Cummings DAT, Irizarry RA, Huang NE et al. (2004) Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand. Nature 427, 344-347.
12. Despommier D, Ellis B & Wilcox B (2006) The role of ecotones in emerging infectious diseases. EcoHealth 3, 281-289.
13. Duncombe J, Clements A, Hu W et al. (2012) Geographical information systems for dengue surveillance. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 86, 753-755.
14. Duque JEL, Silva RV, Kuwabara EF & Navarro-Silva MA (2010) Dengue no Estado do Paraná, Brasil: distribuição temporal e espacial no período 1995-2007. Revista de la Universidad Industrial de Santander. Salud 42, 113-122.
15. Earnest A, Morgan G, Mengersen K, Ryan L, Summerhayes R & Beard J (2007) Evaluating the effect of neighbourhood weight matrices on smoothing properties of Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models. International Journal of Health Geographics 6, 54.
16. Flauzino RF, Souza-Santos R & Oliveira RM (2009) Dengue, geoprocessing, and socioeconomic and environmental indicators: a review. Revista Panamericaba de Salud Publica 25, 456-461.
17. França E, Abreu D & Siqueira M (2004) Dengue epidemics and press coverage. Cadernos de Saúde Pública 20, 1334-1341.
18. Galli B & Chiaravalloti Neto F (2008) Temporal-spatial risk model to identify areas at high-risk for occurrence of dengue fever. Revista de Saúde Pública 42, 656-663.
19. Gilks WR, Richardson S & Spiegelhalter DJ (1996) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, pp. 486.
20. Glasser CM & Gomes AC (2000) Infestação do Estado de São Paulo por Aedes aegypti e Aedes albopictus. Revista de Saúde Pública 34, 570-577.
21. Gubler DJ (2004) Cities spawn epidemic dengue viruses. Nature Medicine 10, 129-130.
22. Gubler DJ (2011) Dengue, urbanization and globalization: the unholy trinity of the 21st century. Tropical Medicine and Health 39, 3-11.
23. Haggett P (2000) Geographical Structure of Epidemics. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
24. Hanert E, Schumacher E & Deleersnijder E (2011) Front dynamics in fractional-order epidemic models. Journal of Theoretical Biology 279, 9-16.
25. Jetten TH & Focks DA (1997) Potential changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 57, 285-297.
26. Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB et al. (2011) Spatio-temporal modeling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers and Geosciences 37, 371-381.
27. Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB et al. (2013) The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil. Statistics in Medicine 32, 864-883.
28. Madoff LC, Fisman DN & Kass-Hout T (2011) A new approach to monitoring dengue activity. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5, e1215.
29. Magori K & Drake JM (2013) The population dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Nature Education Knowledge 4, 14.
30. Marengo JA (2007) Mudanças Climáticas Globais e seus Efeitos sobre a Biodiversidade: Caracterização do Clima Atual e Definição das Alterações Climáticas para o Território Brasileiro ao Longo do Século XXI. Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brasília.
31. Melo MSS, Barreto FR, Costa Mda CN, Morato VC & Teixeira MG (2010) Progression of dengue virus circulation in the State of Bahia, Brazil 1994-2000. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical 43, 139-144.
32. Mendonça F (2006) Aspectos socioambientais da expansão da dengue no Paraná. Diálogos em ambiente e sociedade no Brasil 1, 329.
33. Observatory of Climate and Health (2011) Seleção de indicadores para doenças transmitidas por vetores e clima. Workshop report. www.climasaude.icict.fiocruz.br (accessed 23 March 2013).
34. Pilger D, Lenhart A, Manrique-Saide P et al. (2011) Is routine dengue vector surveillance in central Brazil able to accurately monitor the Aedes aegypti population? Results from a pupal productivity survey. Tropical Medicine & International Health 16, 1143-1150.
35. Randolph SE & Rogers DJ (2010) The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions. Nature Reviews Microbiology 8, 361-371.
36. Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cordeiro MT, Braga C, Souza WV, Marques ET & Cummings DAT (2011) From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: the natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5, e935.
37. Siqueira-Junior JB, Martelli CMT, Coelho GE, Simplicio ACR & Hatch DL (2005) Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever, Brazil 1981-2002. Emerging Infectious Diseases 11, 48-53.
38. Siqueira-Junior JB, Maciel IJ, Barcellos C et al. (2008) Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil. BMC Public Health 8, 361.
39. Stewart-Ibarra A & Lowe R (2013) Climate and non-climate drivers of dengue epidemics in southern coastal Ecuador. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 88, 971-981.
40. Stoddard ST, Forshey BM, Morrison AC et al. (2013) House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences 110, 994-999.
41. Taiul PL (2002) Aspectos críticos do controle do dengue no Brasil. Cadernos de Saúde Pública 18, 867-871.
42. Teixeira MG, Barreto ML, Costa MCN et al. (2002) Dynamics of dengue virus circulation: a silent epidemic in a complex urban area. Tropical Medicine & International Health 7, 757-762.
43. Teixeira MG, Costa Mda CN, Barreto F & Barreto ML (2009) Dengue: twenty-five years since reemergence in Brazil. Cadernos de Saúde Pública 25 (Suppl. 1), S7-S18.
44. Teurlai M, Huy R, Cazelles B et al. (2012) Can human movements explain heterogeneous propagation of dengue fever in Cambodia? PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 6, e1957.