Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

Hydrological Processes

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1329-1344

  Nepal, S ^a,b   Krause, P ^a   Flugel W A ^a   Fink, M ^a   Fischer, C ^a  

^a FRIEDRICH SCHILLER UNIVERSITY JENA   (Germany)

^b INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR INTEGRATED MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT   (Nepal)

Author keywords

Climate change; Himalayan region; Hydrological modelling, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; Hydrological system dynamics; Snow and glacier melt

Indexed keywords

COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; HIMALAYAN REGION; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING; HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM; INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT; SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; RIVERS; RUNOFF; SNOW; SNOW MELTING SYSTEMS; SYSTEM THEORY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER RESOURCES;

CATCHMENTS;

CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; GLACIAL HYDROLOGY; GLACIER; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; RUNOFF; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SNOWMELT; STREAMFLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VALLEY GLACIER; WATER AVAILABILITY;

HIMALAYAS; NEPAL;

EID: 84891739303     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9627     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Alford D. 1992. Hydrological aspects of the Himalaya region. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu Nepal.
2. Alford D, Armstrong R. 2010. The role of glaciers in stream flow from the Nepal Himalaya. The Cryosphere Discussions 4(2): 469-494.
3. Allen RG, Pereira L, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome.
4. Armstrong RL. 2011. The glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, a summary of the science regarding glacier melt/retreat in the Himalayan, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir, and Tien Shan mountain ranges. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD): Kathmandu, Nepal.
5. Bajracharya SR, Mool P. 2009. Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region. Annals of Glaciology 50(53): 81-86.
6. Barry RG. 2008. Mountain weather and climate. Cambridge University Press: UK.
7. Bäse F. 2005. Beurteilung der Parametersensitivität und der Vorhersageunsicherheit am Beispiel des hydrologischen Modells J2000. Master's Thesis, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena.
8. Bertle FA. 1966. Effects of snow compaction on runoff from rain and snow. Bureau of Reclamation, Engineering Monograph No. 35, Washington.
9. Beven K. 2001a. Rainfall-runoff modelling: the primer. John Wiley & Sons: Chicester.
10. Beven KJ. 2001b. How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 5(1): 1-12.
11. Beven K, Binley AM. 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 6: 279-298.
12. Beven K, Freer J. 2001. Equifinality, data assimilation, and data uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology 249: 11-29.
13. Crosetto M, Tarantola S. 2001. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: tools for GIS-based model implementation. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 15(5): 415-437.
14. Defourny P, Vancutsem C, Bicheron C, Brockmann C, Nino F, Schouten L, Leroy M. 2006. GLOBCOVER: a 300M global land cover product for 2005 using ENVISAT MERIS time series. ISPRS Commission VII Mid-term Symposium 'Remote Sensing: From Pixels to Processes', Enschede, the Netherlands, 8-11 May 2006.
15. Dickinson RE. 1984. Modelling evapotranspiration for three-dimensional global climate models. Geophysical Monograph Series 29: 58-72.
16. Dobler A, Yaoming M, Sharma N, Kienberger S, Ahrens B. 2011. Regional climate projections in two alpine river basins: upper Danube and upper Brahmaputra. Advances in Science and Research 7: 11-20.
17. Du M, Kawashima S, Yonemura S, Yamada T, Zhang X, Liu J, Li Y, Gu S, Tang Y. 2007. Temperature distribution in the high mountain regions on the Tibetan Plateau - Measurement and simulation. In MODSIM 2007 Land, Water and Environmental Management: Integrated Systems for Sustainability, pp. 2146-2152.
18. Eriksson M, Jianchu X, Shrestha AB, Vaidya RA, Nepal S, Sandström K. 2009. The changing Himalayas impact of climate change on water resources and livelihoods in the greater Himalaya. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD): Kathmandu.
19. Fischer C, Kralisch S, Flügel W-A. 2012. An integrated, fast and easily useable software toolbox which allows comparative and complementary application of various parameter sensitivity analysis methods. In Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany, Seppelt R, Voinov AA, Lange S, Bankamp D (eds). International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software.
20. Flügel W-A. 1995. Delineating Hydrological Units (HRU's) by GIS analysis for regional hydrological modelling using PRMS/MMS in the drainage basin of the River Broel, Germany. Hydrological Processes 9: 423-436.
21. Freer J, Beven K. 1996. Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: an application of the GLUE approach. Water Resources Research 32(7): 2161-2173.
22. Fujji Y, Higuchu K. 1977. Statistical analysis of the forms of glaciers in Khumbu region. Journal of Japanese Society of Snow Ice (Seppyo) 39: 7-14.
23. Gao T, Kang S, Krause P, Cuo L, Nepal S. 2012. A test of J2000 model in a glacierized catchment in the central Tibetan Plateau. Environmental Earth Sciences 65(6): 1651-1659.
24. Gosain AK, Rao S, Mani A. 2011. Hydrological modelling: a case study of the Kosi Himalayan basin using SWAT. In Soil Hydrology, Land Use and Agriculture: Measurement and Modelling, Shukla MK (ed). CABI Publishing. Walingford.
25. Gupta H, Beven KJ, Wagener T. 2005. Model calibration and uncertainty estimation. In Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, Anderson MG (ed.) John Wiley & Sons, Ltd: New York.
26. Higuchi K, Ageta Y, Yasunari T, Inoue J. 1982. Characteristics of precipitation during the monsoon season in high-mountain areas of the Nepal Himalaya. In Hydrological Aspects of Alpine and High Mountain Areas (Proceedings of the Exeter Symposium), IAHS Publication: 138, pp. 21-30.
27. Hock R. 1999. A distributed temperature index ice and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation. Journal of Glaciology 45(149): 101-112.
28. Hock R. 2005. Glacier melt: a review of processes and their modelling. Progress in Physical Geography 29(3): 362-391.
29. Hornberger GM, Spear RC. 1981. An approach to the preliminary analysis of environmental systems. Journal of Environmental Management 12: 7-18.
30. Immerzeel WM, Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP. 2010. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Journal of Hydrology 328 (5984): 1382-1385.
31. Immerzeel WM, Beek LPH, Konz M, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP. 2012. Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Climate change 110: 721-736.
32. IPCC. 1994. IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. Prepared by Working Group II. Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H, Nishioka S (eds). WMO/UNEP. CGER-IO15-'94. University College London, UK and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies: Tsukuba, Japan; 59.
33. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 881.
34. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York.
35. Jansson P, Hock R, Schneider T. 2003. The concept of glacier storage: a review. Journal of Hydrology 282: 116-129.
36. Kattelmann R. 1987. Uncertainty in assessing Himalayan water resources. Mountain Research and Development 7(3): 279-286.
37. Kattelmann R. 2003. Glacial lake outburst floods in the Nepal Himalaya: a manageable hazard? Natural Hazards 28: 145-154.
38. Klemeš V. 1986. Operational testing of hydrological simulation models. Hydrological Sciences Journal 31: 13-24.
39. Knauf D. 1976. Die Abflüssbildung in schneebedeckten Einzugsgebieten des Mittelgebirges. Institut fuer Hydraulik und Hydrologie, TH Darmstadt, Technischer Bericht nr. 17.
40. Knauf D. 1980. Die Berechnung des Abflüsses aus einer Schneedecke. Analyse und Berechnung oberirdischer Abflüsse DVWK-Schriften, Bonn, Heft 46.
41. Kralisch S, Krause P. 2006. JAMS - a framework for natural resource model development and application. In Proceedings of the International Environmental Software Society (IEMSS), Vermont, USA.
42. Kralisch S, Krause P, Fink M, Fischer C, Flügel W-A. 2007. Component based environmental modelling using the JAMS framework. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Christchurch, New, Zealand. 812-818.
43. Krause P. 2001. Das hydrologische Modellsystem J2000: Beschreibung und Anwendung in grossen Flusseinzugsgebieten. Schriften des Forschungszentrum Jülich. Reihe Umwelt/Environment; Band 29.
44. Krause P. 2002. Quantifying the impact of land use changes on the water balance of large catchments using the J2000 model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27: 663-673.
45. Krause P, Boyle DP, Bäse F. 2005. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences 31: 89-97.
46. Krause P, Bende-Michl U, Bäse F, Fink M, Flügel W-A, Pfennig B. 2006. Multiscale investigations in a mesoscale catchment - hydrological modelling in the Gera catchment. Advances in Geosciences 9: 53-61.
47. Kumar KR, Sahai AK, Kumar KK, Patwardhan SK, Mishra PK, Revadekar JV, Kamala K, Pant GB. 2006. High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century. Current Science 90(3): 334-345.
48. McCuen R. 2005. The role of sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modelling. Journal of Hydrology 18: 37-53.
49. Minder JR, Mote PW, Lundquist JD. 2010. Surface temperature lapse rates over complex terrain: lessons from the Cascade Mountains. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: 1-13.
50. MoFSC. 2002. Forest and vegetation types of Nepal. Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, Government of Nepal and Natural Resource Management Sector Assistance Programme (NARMSAP), TISC Document Series, No. 105.
51. Montanari A. 2005. Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research 41: 1-13.
52. Mool PK, Bajracharya SR, Joshi SP. 2001. Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes, and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region-Nepal. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD): Kathmandu Nepal.
53. Nepal S. 2012. Evaluating upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region. PhD Thesis, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena.
54. Nepal S, Krause P, Flügel W-A, Fink M, Pfennig B. 2011. Understanding the impact of climate change in the glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalaya region using the J2000 hydrological model. In Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Building Knowledge Bridges for a Sustainable Water Future, Panama; 55-60.
55. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I. 2002. A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research 21: 1-25.
56. Pfennig B, Wolf M. 2007. Extraction of process-based topographic model units using SRTM elevation data for Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) in different landscapes. MODSIM07: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, 10-13 December 2007.
57. Prasch M. 2010. Distributed process oriented modelling of the future impact of glacier melt water on runoff in the Lhasa River Basin in Tibet. PhD Thesis, Dissertation der Fakultät für Geowissenschaften der LMU München.
58. Raghunath HM. 2006. Hydrology, Principles, Analysis and Design. New Age International (P) Limited: New Delhi, India.
59. Sakai A, Takeuchi N, Fujita K, Nakawo M. 2000. Role of supraglacial ponds in the ablation process of a debris-covered glaciers in the Nepal Himalayas. In Debris Covered Glaciers (Proceedings of a workshop held at Seattle, Washington, USA, September 2000). IAHS Publ. no. 265, 2000.
60. Sakai A, Fujita K, Kubota J. 2004. Evaporation and percolation effect on melting at debris-covered Lirung Glacier, Nepal Himalayas, 1996. Bulletin of Glacier Research 21: 9-15.
61. Saltelli A, Sobol IM. 1995. About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 50(3): 225-239.
62. Sharma KP. 1997. Impact of land-use and climatic changes on hydrology of the Himalayan Basin: a case study of the Kosi Basin. PhD Thesis, University of New Hampshire.
63. Sharma KP, Vorosmarty CJ, Moore B. 2000. Sensitivity of the Himalayan hydrology to land-use and climatic changes. Climatic Change 47: 117-139.
64. Shiraiwa T, Ueno K, Yamada T. 1992. Distribution of mass input on glaciers in the Langtang Valley Nepal Himalayas. Bulletin of Glacier Research 10: 21-30.
65. Shrestha AB, Eriksson M, Mool P, Ghimire P, Mishra B, Khanal NR. 2010. Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of Sun Koshi basin, Nepal. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 1(2): 157-169.
66. Singh P, Kumar N. 1997. Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river. Journal of Hydrology 193 (1-4): 316-350.
67. Viviroli D, Weingartner R, Messerli B. 2003. Assessing the hydrological significance of the world's mountains. Mountain Research and Development 23(1): 32-40.
68. Wagener T, Lees MJ, Wheater HS. 2001. Monte-Carlo analysis toolbox user manual. Tech. Rep., Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine.
69. Walker WE, Harremoees P, Rotmans J, Van Der Sluijs JP, Van Asselt MBA, Janssen P, Krayer von Krauss MP. 2003. Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integrated Assessment 4(1): 5-17.
70. Weichel T, Pappenberger F, Schulz K. 2007. Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling - concept of an analysis framework. Advance Geoscience 11: 31-36.
71. Yasunari T, Inoue J. 1978. Characteristics of monsoonal precipitation around peaks and ridges in Shorong and Khumbu Himal. Seppyo 40 special issue, 26-14.