Track and intensity forecasting of hurricanes: Impact of convection-permitting resolution and global ensemble Kalman filter analysis on 2010 Atlantic season forecasts

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 28, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 1366-1384

  Xue, Ming ^a   Schleif, Jordan ^a   Kong, Fanyou ^a   Thomas, Kevin W ^a   Wang, Yunheng ^a   Zhu, Kefeng ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

Cloud resolving models; Data assimilation; Model evaluation performance; Numerical weather prediction forecasting

Indexed keywords

CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL; DATA ASSIMILATION; GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEMS; MODEL EVALUATION/PERFORMANCE; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING; STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION; VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION; WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING;

ERRORS; HURRICANES; KALMAN FILTERS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; DATA ASSIMILATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; HURRICANE; KALMAN FILTER; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; STORM TRACK; THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELING; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND FIELD; WIND VELOCITY;

EID: 84891645100     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-12-00063.1     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Bender, M. A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 45.
2. Chou, M.-D., and M. J. Suarez, 1999: A shortwave radiation parameterization for atmospheric studies. NASA Tech Rep. NASA/TM-104606, 40 pp.
3. Chou, M.-D., and M. J. Suarez, C.-H. Ho, M. M. H. Yan, and K.-T. Lee, 1998: Parameterizations for cloud overlapping and shortwave singlescattering properties for use in general circulation and cloud ensemble models. J. Climate, 11, 202-214.
4. Clark, A. J., W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2009: A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-permitting and large convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1121-1140.
5. Davis, C., and Coauthors, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1990-2005.
6. Davis, C., W. Wang, J. Dudhia, and R. Torn, 2010: Does increased horizontal resolution improve hurricane wind forecasts? Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1826-1841.
7. DTC, 2009: High-resolution hurricane test final report. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Developmental Testbed Center, 95 pp. [Available online at http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/HRH_Report_30Sept.pdf.]
8. Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, P. Grunmann, E. Rogers, G. Gayno, V. Koren, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003: Implementation of the upgraded NOAH land-surface model in the NCEP operational mesoscale Eta Model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
9. Gopalakrishnan, S. G., F. Marks, X. Zhang, J.-W. Bao, K.-S. Yeh, and R. Atlas, 2011: The experimental HWRF system: A study on the influence of horizontal resolution on the structure and intensity changes in tropical cyclones using an idealized framework. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1762-1784.
10. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, M. Fiorino, and S. G. Benjamin, 2011a: Global ensemble predictions of 2009's tropical cyclones initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 668-688.
11. Hamill, T. M., J. S., D. T. Kleist, M. Fiorino, and S. G. Benjamin, 2011b: Predictions of 2010's tropical cyclones using the GFS and ensemble-based data assimilation methods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3243-3247.
12. Hendricks, E. A., M. S. Peng, X. Ge, and T. Li, 2011: Performance of a dynamic initialization scheme in the Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC). Wea. Forecasting, 26, 650-663.
13. Janjiac, Z. I., 1990: The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1429-1443.
14. Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W.-S. Wu, and S. Lord, 2009: Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691-1705.
15. Li, Y., X. Wang, and M. Xue, 2012: Assimilation of radar radial velocity data with the WRF ensemble-3DVAR hybrid system for the prediction of Hurricane Ike (2008). Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3507-3524.
16. Liu, Q., T. Marchok, H.-L. Pan, M. Bender, and S. Lord, 2000: Improvements in hurricane initialization and forecasting at NCEP with global and regional (GFDL) models. NOAA Tech. Procedures Bull. 472, 7 pp.
17. Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), 16 663-16 682.
18. Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The NationalMeteorological Center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
19. Rappaport, E. N., and Coauthors, 2009: Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 395-419.
20. Schwartz, C., and Coauthors, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRFmodel guidance:Asecond look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3351-3372.
21. Skamarock, W.C., andM. L. Weisman, 2009:The impact of positivedefinite moisture transport on NWP precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 488-494.
22. Skamarock, W.C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN- 4751STR, 113 pp.
23. Thompson, G., P. R. Field, W. D. Hall, and R. M. Rasmussen, 2006: A new bulk microphysical parameterization for WRF (& MM5). WRF User's Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, 5.3. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2006/abstracts/Session05/5_3_Thompson.pdf.]
24. Thompson, G., P. R. Field, R. M. Rasmussen, and W. D. Hall, 2008: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5095-5115.
25. Torn, R. D., and C. Snyder, 2012: Uncertainty of tropical cyclone best-track information. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 715-729.
26. Tripoli, G. J., 1992: A nonhydrostatic mesoscale model designed to simulate scale interaction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1342-1359.
27. Warner, T. T., R. A. Peterson, and R. E. Treadon, 1997: A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2599-2617.
28. Whitaker, J. S., T. M. Hamill, X. Wei, Y. Song, and Z. Toth, 2008: Ensemble data assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 463-482.
29. Xue, M., and Coauthors, 2010: CAPS realtime storm scale ensemble and high resolution forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2010 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7B.3. [Available online at https://ams.confex. com/ams/pdfpapers/176056.pdf.]