메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 28, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 1353-1365

Nonlinear characteristics of ensemble perturbation evolution and their application to forecasting high-impact events

Author keywords

Adaptive models; Ensembles; Forecasting; Short range prediction

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MODELS; ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER; ENSEMBLE PERTURBATION; ENSEMBLES; MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES; NONLINEAR CHARACTERISTICS; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; SHORT-RANGE PREDICTIONS;

EID: 84891638946     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-12-00090.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 33750484698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structure, growth rates, and tangent linear accuracy of adjoint sensitivities with respect to horizontal and vertical resolution
    • Ancell, B. C., and C. F. Mass, 2006: Structure, growth rates, and tangent linear accuracy of adjoint sensitivities with respect to horizontal and vertical resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2971-2988.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 2971-2988
    • Ancell, B.C.1    Mass, C.F.2
  • 2
    • 38049160114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing ensemble and adjoint sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting
    • Ancell, B. C., and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Comparing ensemble and adjoint sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 4117-4134.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 4117-4134
    • Ancell, B.C.1    Hakim, G.J.2
  • 3
    • 79959586070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of surface analyses and forecasts with a multiscale ensemble Kalman filter in regions of complex terrain
    • Ancell, B. C., C. F. Mass, and G. J. Hakim, 2011: Evaluation of surface analyses and forecasts with a multiscale ensemble Kalman filter in regions of complex terrain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2008-2024.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 2008-2024
    • Ancell, B.C.1    Mass, C.F.2    Hakim, G.J.3
  • 4
    • 0033500692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts
    • Anderson, J. L., and S. L. Anderson, 1999: A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2741-2758.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 2741-2758
    • Anderson, J.L.1    Anderson, S.L.2
  • 5
    • 84863698671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Weather Research and Forecasting model's community variational/ensemble data assimilation system: WRFD
    • Barker, D., and Coauthors, 2012: The Weather Research and Forecasting model's community variational/ensemble data assimilation system: WRFDA. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 831-843.
    • (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.93 , pp. 831-843
    • Barker, D.1
  • 6
    • 0028667276 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting of hourly accumulations of precipitation by optimal extrapolation of radar maps
    • Bellon, A., and I. Zawadzki, 1994: Forecasting of hourly accumulations of precipitation by optimal extrapolation of radar maps. J. Hydrol., 157, 211-233.
    • (1994) J. Hydrol. , vol.157 , pp. 211-233
    • Bellon, A.1    Zawadzki, I.2
  • 8
    • 24144470136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison between the 4DVAR and the ensemble Kalman filter techniques for radar data assimilation
    • Caya, A., J. Sun, and C. Snyder, 2005: A comparison between the 4DVAR and the ensemble Kalman filter techniques for radar data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3081-3094.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 3081-3094
    • Caya, A.1    Sun, J.2    Snyder, C.3
  • 10
    • 0035303091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coupling an advanced land surface- hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system
    • Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface- hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 569-585.
    • (2001) Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.129 , pp. 569-585
    • Chen, F.1    Dudhia, J.2
  • 11
    • 0024921060 scopus 로고
    • Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model
    • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077-3107.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 3077-3107
    • Dudhia, J.1
  • 12
    • 23144455758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting
    • Eckel, F. A., and C. F. Mass, 2005: Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 328-350.
    • (2005) Wea. Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 328-350
    • Eckel, F.A.1    Mass, C.F.2
  • 13
    • 0028602156 scopus 로고
    • The Liouville equation and its potential usefulness for the prediction of forecast skill
    • Ehrendorfer, M., 1994: The Liouville equation and its potential usefulness for the prediction of forecast skill. Part I: Theory. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 703-713.
    • (1994) Part I: Theory. Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 703-713
    • Ehrendorfer, M.1
  • 14
    • 0031400136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is an adjoint model? Bull
    • Errico, R. M., 1997: What is an adjoint model? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2577-2591.
    • (1997) Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.78 , pp. 2577-2591
    • Errico, R.M.1
  • 15
    • 0028193070 scopus 로고
    • Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics
    • Evensen, G., 1994: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res., 99 (C5), 10143-10162.
    • (1994) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.99 , Issue.C5 , pp. 10143-10162
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 16
    • 0033023511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions
    • Gaspari, G., and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 723-757.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 723-757
    • Gaspari, G.1    Cohn, S.E.2
  • 17
    • 0036965520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images
    • Germann, U., and I. Zawadzki, 2002: Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part I: Description of the methodology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2859-2873.
    • (2002) Part I: Description of the methodology. Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 2859-2873
    • Germann, U.1    Zawadzki, I.2
  • 18
    • 0035891673 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linear regime duration: Is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? J
    • Gilmour, I., L. A. Smith, and R. Buizza, 2001: Linear regime duration: Is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3525-3539.
    • (2001) Atmos. Sci. , vol.58 , pp. 3525-3539
    • Gilmour, I.1    Smith, L.A.2    Buizza, R.3
  • 19
    • 0033792589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter-3D variational analysis scheme
    • Hamill, T. M., and C. Snyder, 2000: A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter-3D variational analysis scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2905-2919.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 2905-2919
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Snyder, C.2
  • 20
    • 1642306852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble reforecasting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and X. Wei, 2004: Ensemble reforecasting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1434-1447.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 1434-1447
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Whitaker, J.S.2    Wei, X.3
  • 21
    • 37349077632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales
    • Hohenegger, C., and C. Schar, 2007: Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1783-1793.
    • (2007) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.88 , pp. 1783-1793
    • Hohenegger, C.1    Schar, C.2
  • 22
    • 1842587750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation
    • Hong, S.-Y., J. Dudhia, and S.-H. Chen, 2004: A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 103-120.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 103-120
    • Hong, S.-Y.1    Dudhia, J.2    Chen, S.-H.3
  • 23
    • 0025662461 scopus 로고
    • The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package
    • Janjiac, Z. I., 1990: The step-mountain coordinate: Physical package. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1429-1443.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 1429-1443
    • Janjiac, Z.I.1
  • 24
    • 0004856410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The surface layer in the NCEP Eta Model
    • Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA
    • Janjiac, Z. I., 1996: The surface layer in the NCEP Eta Model. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 354-355.
    • (1996) Amer. Meteor. Soc. , pp. 354-355
    • Janjiac, Z.I.1
  • 25
    • 10244262325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP Meso Model.
    • NCEP Office Note 437
    • Janjiac, Z. I., 2002: Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP Meso Model. NCEP Office Note 437, 61 pp.
    • (2002) , pp. 61
    • Janjiac, Z.I.1
  • 26
    • 64949192127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability of precipitation: Assessment and enhancement of enduser understanding
    • Joslyn, S., L. Nadav-Greenberg, and R. M. Nichols, 2009: Probability of precipitation: Assessment and enhancement of enduser understanding. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 185-193.
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 185-193
    • Joslyn, S.1    Nadav-Greenberg, L.2    Nichols, R.M.3
  • 27
    • 0025592294 scopus 로고
    • A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization
    • Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2784-2802.
    • (1990) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.47 , pp. 2784-2802
    • Kain, J.S.1    Fritsch, J.M.2
  • 28
    • 0001014123 scopus 로고
    • Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46
    • Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165-170.
    • (1993) Amer. Meteor. Soc. , pp. 165-170
    • Kain, J.S.1    Fritsch, J.M.2
  • 29
    • 0008510807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Predictability
    • Cambridge University Press
    • Kalnay, E., 2003: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Predictability. Cambridge University Press, 364 pp.
    • (2003) , pp. 364
    • Kalnay, E.1
  • 30
    • 84905706471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude medium-range deterministic forecast skill
    • Langland, R. H., and R. N. Maue, 2012: Recent Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude medium-range deterministic forecast skill. Tellus, 64A, 1-10.
    • (2012) Tellus , vol.64 , pp. 1-10
    • Langland, R.H.1    Maue, R.N.2
  • 32
    • 68949207162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • PROBCAST: A web-based portal to mesoscale probabilistic forecasts
    • Mass, C. F., and Coauthors, 2009: PROBCAST: A web-based portal to mesoscale probabilistic forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1009-1014.
    • (2009) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1009-1014
    • Mass, C.F.1
  • 33
    • 1842790099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Major numerical forecast failures over the northeast Pacific
    • McMurdie, L. A., and C. F. Mass, 2004: Major numerical forecast failures over the northeast Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 338-356.
    • (2004) Wea. Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 338-356
    • McMurdie, L.A.1    Mass, C.F.2
  • 34
    • 77958470163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var intercomparison with the Japanese operational global analysis and prediction system
    • Miyoshi, T., Y. Sato, and T. Kadowaki, 2010: Ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var intercomparison with the Japanese operational global analysis and prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 2846-2866.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 2846-2866
    • Miyoshi, T.1    Sato, Y.2    Kadowaki, T.3
  • 35
    • 0000453046 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
    • Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), 16 663-16 682.
    • (1997) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.102 , Issue.D14
    • Mlawer, E.J.1    Taubman, S.J.2    Brown, P.D.3    Iacono, M.J.4    Clough, S.A.5
  • 36
    • 65549088959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U
    • Morss, R. E., J. L. Demuth, and J. K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 974-991.
    • (2008) S. public. Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 974-991
    • Morss, R.E.1    Demuth, J.L.2    Lazo, J.K.3
  • 37
    • 33846797511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
    • National Academies Press, National Research Council
    • National Research Council, 2006: Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academies Press, 112 pp.
    • (2006) , pp. 112
  • 39
    • 0001090010 scopus 로고
    • On the structure and dynamics of fronts, jet streams and the tropopause
    • Extratropical Cyclones: The Erik Palmaen Memorial Volume, C.W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds.
    • Shapiro, M. A., and D. Keyser, 1990: On the structure and dynamics of fronts, jet streams and the tropopause. Extratropical Cyclones: The Erik Palmaen Memorial Volume, C.W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167-191.
    • (1990) Amer. Meteor. Soc. , pp. 167-191
    • Shapiro, M.A.1    Keyser, D.2
  • 40
    • 72049128136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3
    • NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR
    • Skamarock, W. C., and Coauthors, 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-4751STR, 113 pp.
    • (2008) , pp. 113
    • Skamarock, W.C.1
  • 41
    • 77952562085 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging
    • Sloughter, J. M., T. Gneiting, and A. E. Raftery, 2010: Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 105, 25-35.
    • (2010) J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. , vol.105 , pp. 25-35
    • Sloughter, J.M.1    Gneiting, T.2    Raftery, A.E.3
  • 42
    • 57149141566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performance characteristics of a pseudo-operational ensemble Kalman filter
    • Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2008: Performance characteristics of a pseudo-operational ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3947-3963.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3947-3963
    • Torn, R.D.1    Hakim, G.J.2
  • 43
    • 33748999011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Boundary conditions for limitedarea ensemble Kalman filters
    • Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, and C. Snyder, 2006: Boundary conditions for limitedarea ensemble Kalman filters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2490-2502.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 2490-2502
    • Torn, R.D.1    Hakim, G.J.2    Snyder, C.3
  • 44
    • 69949177928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of model forecast skill of sea level pressure along the east and west coasts of the United States
    • Wedam, G. B., L. A. McMurdie, and C. F. Mass, 2009: Comparison of model forecast skill of sea level pressure along the east and west coasts of the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 843-854.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 843-854
    • Wedam, G.B.1    McMurdie, L.A.2    Mass, C.F.3
  • 45
    • 0036646009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations
    • Whitaker, J. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2002: Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1913-1924.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1913-1924
    • Whitaker, J.S.1    Hamill, T.M.2
  • 46
    • 0003632941 scopus 로고
    • Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • Academic Press
    • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.
    • (1995) , pp. 467
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 47
    • 79953213364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intercomparison of an ensemble Kalman filter with three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation methods in a limited-area model over the month of June 2003
    • Zhang, M., F. Zhang, X.-Y. Huang, and X. Zhang, 2011: Intercomparison of an ensemble Kalman filter with three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation methods in a limited-area model over the month of June 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 566-572.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 566-572
    • Zhang, M.1    Zhang, F.2    Huang, X.-Y.3    Zhang, X.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.