Integrated assessment models for ecologists: The present and the future

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 23, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 124-143

  Harfoot, Michael ^a,b   Tittensor, Derek P ^a,b,c   Newbold, Tim ^a,b   Mcinerny, Greg ^b,d   Smith, Matthew J ^b   Scharlemann, Jörn P W ^a,e  

^a UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME WORLD CONSERVATION MONITORING CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

^b MICROSOFT RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^c DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

AIM; GCAM; IMAGE; Integrated assessment models; Land cover projections; Land use projections; MESSAGE; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; INTEGRATED APPROACH; LAND COVER; LAND USE;

EID: 84891495169     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12100     Document Type: Review

References (145)

1. Alcamo, J., Kreileman, E., Krol, M., Leemans, R., Bollen, J., Van Minnen, J., Schaeffer, M., Toet, S. & De Vries, B. (1998) Global modelling of environmental change: an overview of IMAGE 2.1. Global change scenarios of the 21st century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 model (ed. by J. Alcamo, R. Leemans and E. Kreileman ), pp. 3-94. Elsevier Science, Oxford, UK.
2. Alexandrov, G., Oikawa, T. & Yamagata, Y. (2002) The scheme for globalization of a process-based model explaining gradations in terrestrial NPP and its application. Ecological Modelling, 148, 293-306.
3. Bakkes, J.A., Bosch, P.R., Bouwman, A.F., Eerens, H.C., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Isaac, M., Janssen, P.H.M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Kram, T., De Leeuw, F.A.A.M., Olivier, J.G.J., Van Oorschot, M.M.P., Stehfest, E.E., Van Vuuren, D.P., Bagnoli, P., Chateau, J., Corfee-Morlot, J. & Kim, Y.-G. (2008) Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030; overviews, details, and methodology of model-based analysis. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and OECD, Bilthoven and Paris.
4. Battin, T.J., Luyssaert, S., Kaplan, L., Aufdenkampe, A.K., Richter, A. & Tranvik, L. (2009) The boundless carbon cycle. Nature Geoscience, 2, 598-600.
5. Bawa, K. & Dayanandan, S. (1997) Socioeconomic factors and tropical deforestation. Nature, 386, 562-563.
6. Beattie, A., Sumaila, U.R. & Pauly, D. (2002) A model for the bioeconomic evaluation of marine protected area size and placement in the North Sea. Natural Resource Modelling, 15, 413-437.
7. Beaufort, L., Probert, I., De Garidel-Thoron, T., Bendif, E.M., Ruiz-Pino, D., Metzl, N., Goyet, C., Buchet, N., Coupel, P., Grelaud, M., Rost, B., Rickaby, R.E.M. & De Vargas, C. (2011) Sensitivity of coccolithophores to carbonate chemistry and ocean acidification. Nature, 476, 80-83.
8. Bennett, N.D., Croke, B.F.W., Guariso, G., Guillaume, J.H.A., Hamilton, S.H., Jakeman, A.J., Marsili-Libelli, S., Newham, L.T.H., Norton, J.P., Perrin, C., Pierce, S.A., Robson, B., Seppelt, R., Voinov, A.A., Fath, B.D. & Andreassian, V. (2013) Characterising performance of environmental models. Environmental Modelling and Software, 40, 1-20.
9. Böhringer, C. & Löschel, A. (2006) Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects. Ecological Economics, 60, 49-64.
10. Borges, A.M. (1986) Applied general equilibrium models: an assessment of their usefulness for policy analysis. OECD Economic Studies. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/35567467.pdf (accessed 1 July 2013).
11. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T. & Finnveden, G. (2006) Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures, 38, 723-739.
12. Bostock, J., McAndrew, B., Richards, R., Jauncey, K., Telfer, T., Lorenzen, K., Little, D., Ross, L., Handisyde, N., Gatward, I. & Corner, R. (2010) Aquaculture: global status and trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2897-2912.
13. Boyles, J.G., Cryan, P.M., McCracken, G.F. & Kunz, T.H. (2011) Economic importance of bats in agriculture. Science, 332, 41-42.
14. Brashares, J.S., Arcese, P., Sam, M.K., Coppolillo, P.B., Sinclair, R.E. & Balmford, A. (2004) Bushmeat hunting, wildlife declines, and fish supply in West Africa. Science, 306, 1180-1183.
15. Brenkert, A.L., Smith, A.J., Kim, S.H. & Pitcher, H.M. (2003) Model documentation for the minicam. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA.
16. Bruinsma, J. (2003) World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 (ed. by J. Bruinsma ) Earthscan, London.
17. Burkle, L., Marlin, J.C. & Knight, T.M. (2013) Plant-pollinator interactions over 120 years: loss of species, co-occurrence and function. Science, 339, 1611-1615.
18. Carpenter, S.R., Mooney, H.A., Agard, J., Capistrano, D., Defries, R.S., Díaz, S., Dietz, T., Duraiappah, A.K., Oteng-Yeboah, A., Pereira, H.M., Perrings, C., Reid, W.V., Sarukhan, J., Scholes, R.J. & Whyte, A. (2009) Science for managing ecosystem services: beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106, 1305-1312.
19. Cess, R.D., Potter, G., Blanchet, J., Boer, G., Ghan, S., Kiehl, J., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., Mitchell, J., Morcrette, J.-J., Randall, D.A., Riches, M.R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M., Wetherald, R.T. & Yagai, I. (1989) Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. Science, 245, 513-516.
20. Christensen, V. & Walters, C.J. (2004) Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, 172, 109-139.
21. Clarke, L.E., Edmonds, J.A., Jacoby, H.D., Pitcher, H.M., Reilly, J.M. & Richels, R.G. (2007) Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, DC.
22. De Vries, B., Van Vuuren, D.P., Den Elzen, M.G.J. & Janssen, M. (2001) The target image energy regional (TIMER) model: technical documentation. National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven.
23. Díaz, S., Fargione, J., Chapin, F.S. & Tilman, D. (2006) Biodiversity loss threatens human well-being. PLoS Biology, 4, e277.
24. 2 emissions 1975 to 2075. US Department of Commerce, Springfield, VA.
25. Erasmus, B.F.N., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Chown, S.L., Kshatriya, M. & Wessels, K.J. (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Global Change Biology, 8, 679-693.
26. Estes, J.A., Terborgh, J., Brashares, J.S. etal. (2011) Trophic downgrading of planet earth. Science, 333, 301-306.
27. Falkowski, P.G. (2000) The global carbon cycle: a test of our knowledge of earth as a system. Science, 290, 291-296.
28. Falkowski, P.G., Barber, R.T. & Smetacek, V. (1998) Biogeochemical controls and feedbacks on ocean primary production. Science, 281, 200-207.
29. FAO (2010) The state of the world fisheries and aquaculture. FAO, Rome.
30. Fischer, G. & Antoine, J. (1994) Agro-ecological land resource assessment for agricultural development planning. A case study of Kenya. Making land use choices for district planning. FAO, Rome.
31. Fischer, G., Shah, M. & Van Velthuizen, H. (2002a) Climate change and agricultural vulnerability. IIASA, Laxenburg.
32. Fischer, G., Van Velthuizen, H., Shah, M. & Nachtergaele, F. (2002b) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results. IIASA, Laxenburg.
33. Fischer, G., Shah, M., Tubiello, F.N. & Van Velthuizen, H. (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 360, 2067-2083.
34. Francois, J.F. & Hall, K. (1997) Partial equilibrium modeling. Applied methods for trade policy analysis: a handbook (ed. by J.F. Francois and K.A. Reinert ), pp. 122-156. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
35. Fujino, J., Nair, R., Kainuma, M., Masui, T. & Matsuoka, Y. (2006) Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using aim global model. Energy Journal, 3, 343-354.
36. Fulton, E.A., Link, J.S., Kaplan, I.C., Savina-Rolland, M., Johnson, P., Ainsworth, C., Horne, P., Gorton, R., Gamble, R.J., Smith, A.D.M. & Smith, D.C. (2011) Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish and Fisheries, 12, 171-188.
37. Gaddis, E.J.B., Falk, H.H., Ginger, C. & Voinov, A. (2010) Effectiveness of a participatory modeling effort to identify and advance community water resource goals in St Albans, Vermont. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 1428-1438.
38. Garcia, S.M. & Rosenberg, A.A. (2010) Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365, 2869-2880.
39. Gates, W.L., Boyle, J.S., Covey, C.C., Dease, C.G., Doutriaux, C.M., Drach, R.S., Fiorino, M., Gleckler, P.J., Hnilo, J.J., Marlais, S.M., Phillips, T.J., Potter, G.L., Santer, B.D., Sperber, K.R., Taylor, K.E. & Williams, D.N. (1998) An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore.
40. Hertel, T. (ed.) (1997) Global trade analysis: modeling and applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
41. Hijioka, Y., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Matsuoka, Y. & Harasawa, H. (2006) Development of a support tool for greenhouse gas emissions control policy to help mitigate the impact of global warming. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 7, 331-345.
42. Hijioka, Y., Matsuoka, Y., Nishimoto, H., Masui, T. & Kainuma, M. (2008) Global GHG emission scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets. Journal of Global Environmental Engineering, 13, 97-108.
43. Holdridge, L.R. (1947) Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. Science, 105, 367-368.
44. Hooper, D.U., Chapin, III, F.S., Ewel, J., Hector, A., Inchausti, P., Lavorel, S., Lawton, J., Lodge, D.M., Loreau, M., Naeem, S., Schmid, B., Setala, H., Symstad, A.J., Vandermeer, J. & Wardle, D. (2005) Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: a consensus of current knowledge. Ecological Monographs, 75, 3-35.
45. Houghton, J.T., Meria Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. & Maskell, K. (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
46. Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C.A. (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
47. Hulme, M., Raper, S. & Wigley, T. (1995) An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC). Energy Policy, 23, 347-355.
48. Huntley, B., Berry, P.M., Cramer, W. & McDonald, A.P. (1995) Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 967-1001.
49. IAASTD (2009) Agriculture at a crossroads, global report (ed. by B.D. McIntyre, H.R. Herren, J. Wakhungu and R.T. Watson ) Island Press, Washington, DC.
50. IEA (2004) World energy outlook 2004. OECD Publishing, Paris.
51. IIASA (2006) Model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE). Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS/docs/models.html#MESSAGE (accessed 11 March 2011).
52. IIASA (2009) RCP database version 2.0.5. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about (accessed 15 January 2011).
53. IPBES (2013) About IPBES. Available at: http://www.ipbes.net/about-ipbes.html (accessed 2 May 2013).
54. Isbell, F., Calcagno, V., Hector, A., Connolly, J., Harpole, W.S., Reich, P.B., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Schmid, B., Tilman, D., Van Ruijven, J., Weigelt, A., Wilsey, B.J., Zavaleta, E.S. & Loreau, M. (2011) High plant diversity is needed to maintain ecosystem services. Nature, 477, 199-202.
55. Ito, A. (2010) Changing ecophysiological processes and carbon budget in East Asian ecosystems under near-future changes in climate: implications for long-term monitoring from a process-based model. Journal of Plant Research, 123, 577-588.
56. Jakeman, A. & Letcher, R. (2003) Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management. Environmental Modelling and Software, 18, 491-501.
57. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D.S. & Dobson, A.P. (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biology, 5, e157.
58. Kahn, H. & Wiener, A.J. (1967) The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. Macmillan, New York, NY.
59. Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y. & Morita, T. (eds) (2002a) AIM modeling: overview and major findings. Climate policy assessment: Asia-Pacific integrated modeling. Springer, Tokyo.
60. Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y., Morita, T., & Masui, T. (2002b) Cost analysis of mitigation policies. Climate policy assessment: Asia-Pacific integrated modelling (ed. by M. Kainum, Y. Matsuoka & T. Morita ), pp. 55-72. Springer, Tokyo.
61. Kang, S.M., Polvani, L.M., Fyfe, J.C. & Sigmond, M. (2011) Impact of polar ozone depletion on subtropical precipitation. Science, 332, 951-954.
62. Kareiva, P., Tallis, H., Ricketts, T., Daily, G. & Polasky, S. (2011) Natural capital: theory and practice of mapping ecosystem services (ed. by P. Kareiva, H. Tallis, T. Ricketts, G. Daily and S. Polasky ) Oxford University Press, Oxford.
63. Kassam, A. (1977) Net biomass production and yield of crops. FAO, Rome.
64. Keesing, F., Belden, L.K., Daszak, P., Dobson, A., Harvell, C.D., Holt, R.D., Hudson, P., Jolles, A., Jones, K.E., Mitchell, C.E., Myers, S.S., Bogich, T. & Ostfeld, R. (2010) Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature, 468, 647-652.
65. Klein, A.-M., Vaissière, B.E., Cane, J.H., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Cunningham, S.A., Kremen, C. & Tscharntke, T. (2007) Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 274, 303-313.
66. Kremen, C., Williams, N.M., Bugg, R.L., Fay, J.P. & Thorp, R.W. (2004) The area requirements of an ecosystem service: crop pollination by native bee communities in California. Ecology Letters, 7, 1109-1119.
67. Lambert, S.J. & Boer, G.J. (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics, 17, 83-106.
68. Laniak, G.F., Olchin, G., Goodall, J., Voinov, A., Hill, M., Glynn, P., Whelan, G., Geller, G., Quinn, N., Blind, M., Peckham, S., Reaney, S., Gaber, N., Kennedy, R. & Hughes, A. (2013) Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future. Environmental Modelling and Software, 39, 3-23.
69. Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588-597.
70. Leemans, R. & Solomon, A.M. (1993) Modeling the potential change in yield and distribution of the earth's crops under a warmed climate. Climate Research, 3, 79-96.
71. Leemans, R. & Van Den Born, G.J. (1994) Determining the potential distribution of vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 76, 133-161.
72. Lonsdorf, E., Kremen, C., Ricketts, T., Winfree, R., Williams, N. & Greenleaf, S. (2009) Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes. Annals of Botany, 103, 1589-1600.
73. Lonsdorf, E., Ricketts, T., Kremen, C., Winfree, R., Greenleaf, S., Williams, N., Simon, G., Potts, S.G. & Salles, J. (2011) Crop pollination services. Natural capital (ed. by P.M. Kareiva, H. Tallis, T.H. Ricketts, G.C. Daily and S. Polask ), pp. 168-187. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
74. Loreau, M., Naeem, S., Inchausti, P., Bengtsson, J., Grime, J.P., Hector, A., Hooper, D.U., Huston, M.A., Raffaelli, D., Schmid, B., Tilman, D. & Wardle, D. (2001) Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: current knowledge and future challenges. Science, 294, 804-808.
75. Mace, G.M., Masundire, H., Baillie, J.E.M. etal. (2005) Biodiversity. Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends: findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group (ed. by R. Hassan, R. Scholes and N. Ash ), pp. 77-122. Island Press, Washington, DC.
76. McGuire, M., Gangopadhyay, A., Komlodi, A. & Swan, C. (2008) A user-centered design for a spatial data warehouse for data exploration in environmental research. Ecological Informatics, 3, 273-285.
77. -2 radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 109, 59-76.
78. Matsuoka, Y., Morita, T. & Kainuma, M. (2001) Integrated assessment model of climate change: the AIM approach. Present and future of modeling global environmental change: towards integrated modeling (ed. by T. Matsuno and H. Kida ), pp. 339-361. Terra Scientific Publishing Company, Tokyo.
79. Meehl, G.A., Boer, G.J., Covey, C., Latif, M. & Stouffer, R.J. (2000) The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 313-318.
80. Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S., Watterson, I.G., Weaver, A.J. & Zhao, Z.-C. (2007) Global climate projections. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, W. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller ), pp. 747-846. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
81. Messner, S. & Schrattenholzer, L. (2000) MESSAGE-MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively. Energy, 25, 267-282.
82. Min, S.-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W. & Hegerl, G.C. (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470, 378-381.
83. MNP (2006) Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4 (ed. by A.F. Bouwman, T. Kram and K.K. Goldewijk ) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
84. Morita, T., Robinson, J., Adegbulugbe, A., Alcamo, J., Herbert, D., La Rovere, E.L., Nakicenovic, N., Pitcher, H., Raskin, P., Riahi, K., Sankovski, A., Sokolov, V., De Vries, B. & Zhou, D. (2001) Greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios and implications. Climate change 2001: mitigation (ed. by B. Metz and O. Davidson ), pp. 115-166. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
85. Moss, R.H., Babiker, M., Brinkman, S. etal. (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change impacts, and response strategies. Technical summary. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
86. Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A., Manning, M.R., Rose, S.K., Van Vuuren, D.P., Carter, T.R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S.J., Stouffer, R.J., Thomson, A.M., Weyant, J.P. & Wilbanks, T.J. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756.
87. Myers, R.A. & Worm, B. (2003) Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature, 423, 280-283.
88. Nakicenovic, N., Victor, N. & Morita, T. (1998) Emissions scenarios database and review of scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3, 95-131.
89. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G. etal. (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (ed. by N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart ) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
90. Nichols, E., Spector, S., Louzada, J., Larsen, T., Amezquita, S. & Favila, M. (2008) Ecological functions and ecosystem services provided by Scarabaeinae dung beetles. Biological Conservation, 141, 1461-1474.
91. Noble, I.R. & Gitay, H. (1996) A functional classification for predicting the dynamics of landscapes. Journal of Vegetation Science, 7, 329-336.
92. Obersteiner, M., Alexandrov, G., Benítez, P.C., McCallum, I., Kraxner, F., Riahi, K., Rokityanskiy, D. & Yamagata, Y. (2006) Global supply of biomass for energy and carbon sequestration from afforestation/reforestation activities. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11, 1003-1021.
93. Orr, J.C., Fabry, V.J., Aumont, O. etal. (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature, 437, 681-686.
94. Overpeck, J.T., Meehl, G.A., Bony, S. & Easterling, D.R. (2011) Climate data challenges in the 21st century. Science, 331, 700-702.
95. Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D., Stott, P., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A.G.J., Lohmann, D. & Allen, M.R. (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470, 382-385.
96. Parson, E.A. & Fisher-Vanden, K. (1997) Integrated assessment models of global climate change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 22, 589-628.
97. Parson, E.A., Keith, D., Burkett, V., Mearns, L., Fisher-vanden, K., Pitcher, H., Webster, M. & Rosenzweig, C. (2007) Global-change scenarios: their development and use. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC.
98. Pauly, D. & Christensen, V. (1995) Primary production required to sustain global fisheries. Nature, 374, 255-257.
99. PBL (2011) Components of IMAGE 2.4. Available at: http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/image/overview/components/index.html (accessed 8 March 2011).
100. Pelletier, D., Mahevas, S., Drouineau, H., Vermard, Y., Thebaud, O., Guyader, O. & Poussin, B. (2009) Evaluation of the bioeconomic sustainability of multi-species multi-fleet fisheries under a wide range of policy options using ISIS-Fish. Ecological Modelling, 220, 1013-1033.
101. Peng, R.D. (2011) Reproducible research in computational science. Science, 334, 1226-1227.
102. Pereira, H.M., Leadley, P.W., Proença, V. etal. (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science, 330, 1496-1501.
103. Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Walters, M. etal. (2013) Ecology. Essential biodiversity variables. Science, 339, 277-278.
104. Perrings, C., Duraiappah, A., Larigauderie, A. & Mooney, H. (2011) The biodiversity and ecosystem services science-policy interface. Science, 331, 1139-1140.
105. Peterson, A.T., Ortega-Huerta, M., Bartley, J., Sanchez-Cordero, V., Soberón, J., Buddemeier, R.H. & Stockwell, D.R.B. (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature, 416, 626-630.
106. Piermartini, R. & Teh, R. (2005) Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy. Discussion paper no. 10. World Trade Organization, Geneva.
107. Purves, D.W., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Harfoot, M., Newbold, T., Tittensor, D.P., Hutton, J. & Emmott, S. (2013) Time to model all life on earth. Nature, 493, 295-297.
108. Randall, D.A., Wood, R.A., Bony, S., Colman, R., Fichefet, T., Fyfe, J., Kattsov, V., Pitman, A., Shukla, J., Srinivasan, J., Stouffer, R.J., Sumi, A. & Taylor, K.E. (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller ), pp. 589-662. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
109. Reid, W.V., Mooney, H.A., Cropper, A. etal. (2005) Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC.
110. Riahi, K., Grubler, A. & Nakicenovic, N. (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 887-935.
111. Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N. & Rafaj, P. (2011) RCP 8.5: a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change, 109, 33-57.
112. Ricketts, T.H., Daily, G.C., Ehrlich, P.R. & Michener, C.D. (2004) Economic value of tropical forest to coffee production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 101, 12579-12582.
113. Rindfuss, R.R., Walsh, S.J., Turner, B.L., Fox, J. & Mishra, V. (2004) Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 101, 13976-13981.
114. Rogelj, J., McCollum, D.L., Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M. & Riahi, K. (2013) Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation. Nature, 493, 79-83.
115. Rokityanskiy, D., Benítez, P.C., Kraxner, F., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M., Rametsteiner, E. & Yamagata, Y. (2007) Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 1057-1082.
116. Rudel, T.K., Defries, R., Asner, G.P. & Laurance, W.F. (2009) Changing drivers of deforestation and new opportunities for conservation. Conservation Biology, 23, 1396-1405.
117. Sands, R.D. & Leimbach, M. (2003) Modeling agriculture and land use in an integrated assessment framework. Climatic Change, 56, 185-210.
118. Schmolke, A., Thorbek, P., DeAngelis, D.L. & Grimm, V. (2010) Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25, 479-486.
119. Schweiger, O., Heikkinen, R.K., Harpke, A., Hickler, T., Klotz, S., Kudrna, O., Kühn, I., Poyry, J. & Settele, J. (2012) Increasing range mismatching of interacting species under global change is related to their ecological characteristics. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 88-99.
120. Sekercioǧlu, C.H., Daily, G.C. & Ehrlich, P.R. (2004) Ecosystem consequences of bird declines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 101, 18042-18047.
121. Settele, J., Carter, T.R., Kühn, I., Spangenberg, J.H. & Sykes, M.T. (2012) Scenarios as a tool for large-scale ecological research: experiences and legacy of the ALARM project. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 1-4.
122. Smith, S.J. & Wigley, T.M. (2006) Multi-gas forcing stabilization with minicam. Energy Journal, 3, 373-392.
123. Soares-filho, B.S., Nepstad, D.C., Curran, L.M., Cerqueira, G.C., Garcia, R.A., Ramos, C.A., Voll, E., McDonald, A., Lefebvre, P. & Schlesinger, P. (2006) Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature, 440, 520-523.
124. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
125. Spangenberg, J.H., Bondeau, A., Carter, T.R., Fronzek, S., Jaeger, J., Jylhä, K., Kühn, I., Omann, I., Paul, A., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Schweiger, O., Stocker, A., Sykes, M.T. & Settele, J. (2012) Scenarios for investigating risks to biodiversity. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 5-18.
126. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., De Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
127. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 8245-8250.
128. Tilman, D., Fargione, J., Wolff, B., D'Antonio, C., Dobson, A.P., Howarth, R., Schindler, D., Schlesinger, W.H., Simberloff, D. & Swackhamer, D. (2001) Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science, 292, 281-284.
129. Tittensor, D.P., Mora, C., Jetz, W., Lotze, H.K., Ricard, D., Vanden Berghe, E. & Worm, B. (2010) Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa. Nature, 466, 1098-1101.
130. Tubiello, F. & Fischer, G. (2007) Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 1030-1056.
131. Turnhout, E., Bloomfield, B., Hulme, M., Vogel, J. & Wynne, B. (2012) Conservation policy: listen to the voices of experience. Nature, 488, 454-455.
132. Tylianakis, J.M. (2013) The global plight of pollinators. Science, 339, 1532-1533.
133. UNEP (2007) Global environment outlook 4, environment for development. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi.
134. Van Vuuren, D.P., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P.L. & Den Elzen, M.G.J. (2006a) Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework. Energy Journal, 3, 201-234.
135. Van Vuuren, D.P., Sala, O.E. & Pereira, H.M. (2006b) The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. Ecology and Society, 11, 1-19.
136. Van Vuuren, D.P., Den Elzen, M.G.J., Lucas, P.L., Eickhout, B., Strengers, B.J., Ruijven, B., Wonink, S. & Houdt, R. (2007) Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Climatic Change, 81, 119-159.
137. Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J. & Rose, S.K. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31.
138. Vanmeijl, H., Vanrheenen, T., Tabeau, A. & Eickhout, B. (2006) The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 114, 21-38.
139. Vohland, K., Mlambo, M.C., Horta, L.D., Jonsson, B., Paulsch, A. & Martinez, S.I. (2011) How to ensure a credible and efficient IPBES? Environmental Science and Policy, 14, 1188-1194.
140. Voinov, A. & Bousquet, F. (2010) Modelling with stakeholders? Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 1268-1281.
141. Weyant, J.P., Davidson, O.R., Dowlatabadi, H., Edmonds, J.A., Grubb, M., Parson, E.A., Richels, R.G., Rotmans, J., Shukla, P.R. & Tol, R.S.J. (1996) Integrated assessment of climate change: an overview and comparison of approaches and results. Climate change 1995. Economic and social dimensions of climate change (ed. by J.P. Bruce, H. Lee and E.F. Haites ), pp. 370-393. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
142. Weyant, J.P., De Chesnaye, F.C. & Blanford, G.J. (2006) Overview of EMF-21?: multigas mitigation and climate policy. The Energy Journal, 27, 1-33.
143. Wigley, T. (1993) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes. Tellus, 45B, 409-425.
144. 2 concentrations for agriculture, land use, land-use change emissions and bioenergy. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA.
145. Worm, B., Hilborn, R., Baum, J.K. etal. (2009) Rebuilding global fisheries. Science, 325, 578-585.