Macroeconomic patterns and stories

Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages 1-359

  Leamer, Edward E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 84891476361     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-46389-4     Document Type: Book

References (46)

1. Sharon Begley, Wall Street Journal, December 24, 2004, "Full Moon Gets Blame For Many Catastrophes. But Is It Truly at Fault?"
2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probabilty Theory and Its Applications, Volume I, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1957, second edition page 32.
3. President and General Dwight D. Eisenhower is quoted as saying, "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." The Columbia World of Quotations. 1996.
4. ATTRIBUTION: Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890-1969), U. S. general, Republican politician, president. Quoted by Richard Nixon in "Krushchev", Six Crises (1962).
5. John W. Kendrick, Economic Accounts and Their Uses, New York: McGraw Hill, 1972, pp. 17-18.
6. http://bls.gOv/cps/cps-faq.htm#Ques3
7. The Bureau of the Census does list the "specific active efforts to find a job" but there remains a distressing impermanence in the responses: "Table 4.1 shows that only two-thirds (66.3 percent of people classified as "Unemployed" in the original interview are classified as "Unemployed" in the reinterview." Data mining the cps reinterview: digging into response error, Pamela D. McGovern and John M. Bushery, U. S. Bureau of the Census, http://www.fcsm.gov/99papers/mcgovern.pdf
8. Ang, A., and M. Piazzesi. 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables." Working Paper. Columbia University. Forthcoming, Journal of Monetary Economics.
9. http://www-1.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/aang/papers/bond.pdf
10. Dai, Q., and K. Singleton. 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models." Journal of Finance 55 (October) pp. 1, 943-1, 978.
11. Evans, C., and D. Marshall. 2001. "Economic Determinants of the Nominal Treasury Yield Curve." FRB ChicagoWorking Paper 01-16.
12. http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/workingpapers/papers/Wp2001-16.pdf
13. Fuhrer, J. C. and G. R. Moore, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output." American Economic Review 85 (March) pp. 219-239.
14. Litterman, R., and J. A. Scheinkman. 1991. "Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns." Journal of Fixed Income 1.
15. Wu, T., 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Slope Factor in Empirical Term Structure Estimations." FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2002-07.
16. http://www.frbsf.org/publica-tions/economics/papers/2002/wp0207bk.pdf
17. Friedberg, Leora and Michael Owyang, "Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure", NBER Working Paper 10714, Aug. 2004.
18. http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/p70-97.pdf
19. The number of stories of the cycle is far greater than the number of actual cycles. A good website that provides a categorization and ample references is http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/business.htm.
20. P. A. Samuelson (1939) "Interaction Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration", Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 21(2), p. 75-8.
21. Schumpeter (1939) Business Cycles: A theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the Capitalist process. New York and London: McGraw-Hill. This story of the cycle has much in similarity to the more complicated offering of Zarnowitz (1999) who "ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation and interest rates"
22. Sadly, economists confuse temporal orderings with causality when the test for "Granger Causality", C. W. J Granger. "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods." Econometrica, 37:424-438, 1969.
23. McCloskey, D, "Counterfactuals" The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Vol. 1, 1987, pp 701-703. "What if Columbus had not discovered America?" is a counterfactual that is either vague or absurd.
24. See Preston McAfee, "American Economic Growth and the Voyage of Columbus", American Economic Review, September 1983, 735-740
25. For what might be the first discovery of this, see Green, Richard K. "Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP", Real Estate Economics, V. 25, 1997, 253-270.
26. "Housing and the Business Cycle", in Housing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy, A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City, August 2007.
27. "By the middle of 1990, the economy was in a full scale recession. Everyone knew it except Greenspan. As late as October of that year, he told his fellow Fed members, "The economy has not yet slipped into a recession. " http://www.townhall.com/columnists/brucebartlett/bb20001226.shtml
28. Granger, C. W. J. (1969), "Investigating causal relationships by econometric models and cross-spectral methods", Econometrica 37:424-438.
29. Lucas, Robert (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1:19-46.
30. See McCloskey, D, "Counterfactuals" The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Vol. 1, 1987, pp 701-703.
31. Robert J. Barro (1974) "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" Journal of Political Economy 82:1095-1117.
32. Lucas, Robert E., Jr., (1976), "Econometric policy evaluation: a critique", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 7-33.
33. Skinner, B. F. (1948), "Superstition and the pigeon", Journal of Experimental Psychology, 38:168-172.
34. Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bemanke At the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt, Germany November 10, 2006 "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy at the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective". http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/speeches/2006/20061110/default.htm
35. Taylor, John B. (1993): Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214.
36. Rasche, R. H., and J. A. Tatom (1977), "Energy Resources and Potential GNP", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59(June), pp. 10-24.
37. Hamilton, James D. (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 228-248.
38. Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Gertler, and Mark Watson (1997). "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1997, pp. 91-142.
39. Bohi, Douglas R. (1989), Energy Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance, Washington D. C.: Resources for the Future.
40. The BEA is undertaking studies to account for R&D as an investment, not as an expense. See http://www.bea.gov/bea/an/1194od/maintext.htm.
41. The treatment of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods raises similar issue. For the BEA treatment of these consult http://www.bea.gov/bea/ faq/national/disasters-faq.pdf
42. Scholz, John Karl, Ananth Seshadri and Surachai Khitatrakun "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?", Journal of Political Economy, 2006, vol. 114, no. 4. 607-643.
43. The access is not user-friendly, but you can find the information at http://www.federalreserve. gov/releases/z1
44. http://www.zillow.com does allow some up-to-the minute estimate of the value of your house, but when things go bad, you do not really want to know, do you?
45. http://www.ofheo.gov
46. "Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing in the CPI", Robert Poole, Frank Ptacek, Randal Verbrugge, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dec. 2005.