Forecasting the Number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections in the Korean Population Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Volumn 4, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 358-362

  Yu, Hye Kyung ^a   Kim, Na Young ^a   Kim, Sung Soon ^a   Chu, Chaeshin ^b   Kee, Mee Kyung ^a  

^a Korea National Institute of Health   (South Korea)

^b Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention   (South Korea)

Author keywords

Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA); Forecasting; HIV infection; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; ARTICLE; AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; ETHNIC GROUP; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; KOREAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD; MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR; MIDDLE AGED; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SCHWARTZ BAYESIAN CRITERION; SEX DIFFERENCE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICAL PARAMETERS; SYSTEMATIC ERROR; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TREND STUDY; VALIDATION PROCESS; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84891346603     PISSN: 22109099     EISSN: 22109110     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.009     Document Type: Article

References (11)

1. UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2013 2013, UNAIDS, Geneva.
2. The surveillance reports for HIV/AIDS in Korea 2011 2013, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, KCDC, Osong.
3. Reichert T.A., Simonsen L., Sharma A., et al. Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999. Am J Epidemiol 2004 Sep, 160(5):492-502.
4. Gaudart J., Toure O., Dessay N., et al. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali. Malar J 2009 Apr, 8:61.
5. Luz P.M., Mendes B.V., Codeco C.T., et al. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2008 Dec, 79(6):933-939.
6. Yi J., Du C.T., Wang R.H., et al. [Applications of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model on predictive incidence of tuberculosis]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2007 Mar, 41(2):118-121. [In Chinese].
7. Liu Q., Liu X., Jiang B., et al. Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model. BMC Infect Dis 2011 Aug, 11:218.
8. Debanne S.M., Bielefeld R.A., Cauthen G.M., et al. Multivariate Markovian modeling of tuberculosis: forecast for the United States. Emerg Infect Dis 2000 Mar-Apr, 6(2):148-157.
9. Kee M.K., Lee J.H., Chu C., et al. Characteristics of HIV seroprevalence of visitors to public health centers under the national HIV surveillance system in Korea: cross sectional study. BMC Public Health 2009 May, 9:123.
10. Shin H.S., Park J.J., Chu C., et al. Herpes simplex virus type 2 seroprevalence in Korea: rapid increase of HSV-2 seroprevalence in the 30s in the southern part. J Korean Med Sci 2007 Dec, 22(6):957-962.
11. Kee M.K., Lee J.H., Wang J., et al. Ten-year trends in HIV prevalence among visitors to public health centers under the National HIV Surveillance System in Korea, 2000 to 2009. BMC Public Health 2012 Sep, 12:831.