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Volumn 66, Issue , 2014, Pages 33-40

How fast can businesses in the new energy sector grow? An analysis of critical factors

Author keywords

Market penetration; Photovoltaics; Renewable energy; Self financeable growth; Wind power

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS CONDITIONS; IMPROVING EFFICIENCY; MARKET PENETRATION; NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES; PHOTOVOLTAICS; POLICY STRATEGIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION;

EID: 84890812180     PISSN: 09601481     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2013.11.061     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (19)

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    • Growth of market share (f) can be described by a simple technology diffusion equation (S-curve) f=[1+e-α0t+α1]-1 where α0=speed of penetration, α1/α0=inflection point. The market share change is f'/f=α0/[1+eα0t-α1]-1, which is a diminishing function of time and market share. Relating the volume change to the market share and using empirical data (1960-2010) for all main energy sources, we were able to show that the average volume changeduring the growth phase follows dV/V=[β0+β1eβ2f]-1, where β0,1,2 are fitted parameters obtained from real data.
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