Using growth curves to forecast regional resource recovery: Approaches, analytics and consistency tests

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 372, Issue 2006, 2014, Pages

  Sorrell, Steve ^a   Speirs, Jamie ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX   (United Kingdom)

^b IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Growth curves; Logistic model; Peak oil; Ultimately recoverable resources

Indexed keywords

ESTIMATION; FORECASTING; PROVEN RESERVES;

CONSISTENCY TESTS; GROWTH CURVES; HYDROCARBON RESOURCES; LOGISTIC MODELS; MATHEMATICAL FRAMEWORKS; PEAK OIL; RECOVERABLE RESOURCE; REGIONAL RESOURCES;

CURVE FITTING;

EID: 84890460151     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0317     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Hubbert MK. 1956 Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. In Meeting of the Southern District, Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, San Antonio, TX, USA, 7-9 March 1956. San Antonio, TX: Shell Development Company.
2. Laherrre J. 2004 Oil and natural gas resource assessment: production growth cycle models. In Encyclopaedia of energy (ed. CJ Cleveland), pp. 617-631. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.
3. Laherrre JH. 2000 Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve. Oil Gas J. 98(16), 63-76.
4. Laherrre J. 2002 Modelling future liquids production from extrapolation of the past and from ultimates. Energy Explor. Exploit. 20, 457-479. (doi:10.1260/014459802321615090).
5. Campbell CJ, Heapes S. 2008 An atlas of oil and gas depletion. Huddersfield, UK: Jeremy Mills Publishing.
6. Mohr S, Evans G. 2008 Peak oil: testing Hubbert's curve via theoretical modeling. Nat. Resour. Res. 17, 1-11. (doi:10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8).
7. Lynch MC. 2003 Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers' assessment. Oil Gas J. 101(27), 38-47.
8. Charpentier RR. 2003 The future of petroleum: optimism, pessimism, or something else? USGS Open-File Rep. 03-137. Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
9. Forman D, Hinde AL. 1985 Improved statistical method for assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 69, 106-118.
10. Meisner J, Demirmen F. 1981 The creaming method: a procedure to forecast future oil and gas discoveries in mature exploration provinces. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 144, 1-31. (doi:10.2307/2982158).
11. Carrillo M, Gonzlez JM. 2002 A new approach to modelling sigmoidal curves. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 69, 233-241. (doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(01) 00150-0).
12. Modis T. 2007 Strengths and weaknesses of S-curves. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74, 866-872. (doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2007.04.005).
13. Young P. 1993 Technological growth curves: a competition of forecasting models. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 44, 375-389. (doi:10.1016/0040-1625(93) 90042-6).
14. Meade N, Islam T. 1995 Forecasting with growth curves: an empirical comparison. Int. J. Forecast. 11, 199-215. (doi:10.1016/0169-2070(94)00556-R).
15. Meyer PS. 1994 Bi-logistic growth. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 47, 89-102. (doi:10.1016/ 0040-1625(94)90042-6).
16. Meyer PS, Yung JW, Ausbel JH. 1999 A primer on logistic growth and substitution: the mathematics of the Loglet Lab software. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 61, 247-271. (doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00021-9).
17. Sorrell S, Speirs J, Bentley RW, Brandt AR, Miller RG. 2009 Global oil depletion: an assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production. London, UK: UK Energy Research Centre.
18. Hubbert MK. 1982 Techniques of prediction as applied to the production of oil and gas. In Proc. Symp. on Oil and Gas Supply Modeling, Washington, DC, USA, 18-20 June 1980. NBS Spec. Publ. no. 631, pp. 16-141. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce.
19. Hubbert MK. 1981 The world's evolving energy system. Am. J. Phys. 49, 1007-1029. (doi:10.1119/1.12656).
20. Sorrell S, Speirs J. 2010 Hubbert's legacy: a review of curve fitting methods to estimate ultimately recoverable resources. Nat. Resour. Res. 19, 209-230. (doi:10.1007/s11053-010- 9123-z).
21. Strahan D. 2007 The last oil shock; a survival guide to the imminent extinction of petroleum man. London, UK: John Murray.
22. Kaufmann RK, Cleveland CJ. 2001 Oil production in the lower 48 states: economic, geological, and institutional determinants. Energy J. 22, 27-49. (doi:10.5547/ISSN0195- 6574-EJ-Vol22-No1-2).
23. Cavallo AJ. 2005 Hubbert's model: uses, meanings, and limits-1. Oil Gas J. 103(21), 22-25.
24. Cavallo AJ. 2005 Hubbert's model: uses, meanings, and limits-2. Oil Gas J. 103(22), 20-25.
25. Campbell CJ. 2002 The assessment and importance of oil depletion. Energy Explor. Exploit. 20, 407-435. (doi:10.1260/014459802321615054).
26. Laherrre J. 2003 Future of oil supplies. Energy Explor. Exploit. 21, 227-267. (doi:10.1260/ 014459803769520061).
27. Cleveland CJ, Kaufmann RK. 1991 Forecasting ultimate oil recovery and its rate of production: incorporating economic forces into the models of M. King Hubbert. Energy J. 12, 17-46.
28. Mohr SH, Evans GM. 2008 Peak oil: testing Hubbert's methodology via theoretical modelling. Nat. Resour. Res. 17, 1-11. (doi:10.1007/s11053-008-9059- 8).
29. Imam A, Startzman RA, Barrufet MA. 2004 Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019. Oil Gas J. 102(31), 20-28.
30. Nashawi IS, Malallah A, Al-Bisharah M. 2010 Forecasting world crude oil production using multi-cyclic Hubbert model. Energy Fuels 24, 1788-1800. (doi:10.1021/ef901240p).
31. Campbell CJ. 1997 The coming oil crisis. Brentwood, Essex, UK: Multi-Science Publishing; and Dublin, Republic of Ireland: Petroconsultants.
32. Brandt AR. 2007 Testing Hubbert. Energy Policy 35, 3074-3088. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006. 11.004).
33. Höök M, Junchen L, Oba N, Snowden S. 2011 Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy systems analysis. Nat. Resour. Res. 20, 103-116. (doi:10.1007/s11053-011-9139-z).
34. Wiorkowski JJ. 1981 Estimating volumes of remaining fossil fuel resources: a critical review. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76, 534-547. (doi:10.1080/01621459.1981.10477681).
35. USGS. 2000 USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000: description and results. Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
36. Sorrell S, Speirs J. 2009 UKERC review of evidence on global oil depletion-Technical Report 5: Methods for estimating ultimately recoverable resources. UK Energy Research Centre, London, UK.
37. Arps JJ, Roberts TJ. 1958 Economics of drilling for Cretaceous oil on the east flank of Denver- Julesberg basin. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 42, 2549-2566.
38. Bentley RW, Booth RH, Burton JD, Coleman ML, Sellwood BW, Whitfield GR. 2000 Perspectives on the future of oil. Energy Explor. Exploit 18, 147-206. (doi:10.1260/014459800 1492076).
39. Wendebourg J, Lamiraux C. 2002 Estimating the ultimate recoverable reserves of the Paris Basin, France. Oil Gas Sci. Technol. 57, 621-629. (doi:10.2516/ogst:2002042).
40. Harris DP. 1977 Conventional crude oil resources of the United States: recent estimates, method for estimation and policy considerations. Mater. Soc. 1, 263-286.
41. Mills RM. 2008 The myth of the oil crisis.Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.
42. Kaufmann RK. 1991 Oil production in the lower 48 states: reconciling curve fitting and econometric models. Resour. Energy 13, 111-127. (doi:10.1016/0165-0572(91)90022-U)
43. Lynch MC. 2002 Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice. Q. Rev. Econ. Financ. 42, 373-389. (doi:10.1016/S1062-9769(02)00126-6).
44. Karbuz S. 2004 Conversion factors and oil statistics. Energy Policy 32, 41-45. (doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00249-5).
45. Thompson E, Sorrell S, Speirs J. 2009 UKERC review of evidence on global oil depletion- Technical Report 2: Definition and interpretation of reserve estimates. UK Energy Research Centre, London, UK.
46. Pike R. 2006 Have we underestimated the environmental challenge? Petrol. Rev. June, 26-27.
47. Thompson E, Sorrell S, Speirs J. 2009 UKERC review of evidence on global oil depletion- Technical Report 3: The nature and importance of reserve growth. UK Energy Research Centre, London, UK.
48. Sorrell S, Miller R, Bentley RW, Speirs J. 2010 Oil futures: a comparison of global supply forecasts. Energy Policy 38, 4990-5003. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol. 2010.04.020).
49. Bentley RW, Mannan SA, Wheeler SJ. 2007 Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves. Energy Policy 35, 6364-6382. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.08.001).
50. VermaMK. 2005 A new reserve growth model for United States oil and gas fields. Nat. Resour. Res. 14, 77-89. (doi:10.1007/s11053-005-6950-4).
51. Attanasi ED, Root DH. 1994 The enigma of oil and gas field growth. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 78, 321-332..
52. Lore GL, Ross KM, Bascle BJ, Nixon LD, Klazynski RJ. 1996 Summary of the 1995 assessment of the conventional recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Continental Shelf. New Orleans, LA: Minerals Management Service.
53. Attanasi ED. 2000 Growth in conventional fields in high cost areas: a case study. World Oil 221(4), 63-68.
54. Cleveland CJ. 1992 Yield per effort for additions to crude-oil reserves in the lower 48 United States, 1946-1989. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 76, 948-958.
55. Reynolds DB. 1999 The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity. Ecol. Econ. 31, 155-166. (doi:10.1016/S0921-8009(99) 00098-1).
56. Bentley RW. 2009 A primer on oil peaking. London, UK: UK Energy Research Centre.
57. Hubbert MK. 1959 Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry. In Proc. 44th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Dallas, TX, USA, 17 March 1959, p. 43. Dallas, TX: Shell Development Company.
58. Carlson WB. 2007 Analysis of world oil production based on the fitting of the logistic function and its derivatives. Energy Sour. B Econ. Plann. Policy 2, 421-428. (doi:10.1080/ 15567240701425741).
59. Meade NM. 1984 The use of growth curves in forecasting market development-a review and appraisal. J. Forecast. 3, 429-451. (doi:10.1002/for.3980030406).
60. Tsoularis A, Wallace J. 2002 Analysis of logistic growth models. Math. Biosci. 179, 21-55. (doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00096-2).
61. Nelder JA. 1971 The fitting of a generalisation of the logistics curve. Biometrics 17, 89-110. (doi:10.2307/2527498).
62. Bass FM. 1969 A new product growth model for consumer durables. Manag. Sci. 15, 215-227. (doi:10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215).
63. Moore CL. 1966 Projections of US petroleum supply to 1980. Washington, DC: Office of Oil and Gas.
64. Moore CL. 1962 Method for evaluating US crude oil resources and projecting domestic crude oil availability. Washington, DC: US Department of the Interior.
65. Ryan JM. 1966 Limitations of statistical methods for predicting petroleum and natural gas reserves and availability. J. Petrol. Technol. 18, 281-287. (doi:10.2118/1256-PA).
66. Mohr SH, Evans GM. 2007 Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak. Oil Gas J. 105(17), 45-50.
67. Patzek TW. 2008 Exponential growth, energetic Hubbert cycles and the advancement of technology. Arch. Mining Sci. 53(2), 131-159. [in Polish].
68. Reynolds DB, Kolodziej M. 2008 Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and multi-cycle Hubbert curve. Energy Econ. 30, 271-289. (doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.021).
69. Laherrre J. 2002 Forecasting future production from past discovery. Int. J. Glob. Energy Issues 18, 218-238.
70. Deffeyes KS. 2005 Beyond oil; the view from Hubbert's peak. New York, NY: Hill and Wang.
71. Hubbert MK. 1962 Energy Resources: A Report to the Committee on Natural Resources of the National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council, USA.
72. Hubbert MK. 1967 Degree of advancement of petroleum exploration in United States. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 51, 2207-2227.
73. Laherrre JH. 1999World oil supply-what goes up must come down, but when will it peak? Oil Gas J. 97(5), 57-64.
74. Laherrre JH. 2005 Forecasting production from discovery. In ASPO IV Int. Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, Lisbon, 2005. Lisbon, Portugal: Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
75. Hubbert MK. 1966 Reply to J.M. Ryan. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 18, 284-286.
76. Hubbert MK. 1968 Degree of advancement of petroleum exploration in United States; Natural gases of North America; Part 4, Papers of general scope. Memoir Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. 9, 2149-2170.
77. Hubbert MK. 1974 U.S. Energy Resources: A Review as of 1972. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office.
78. Hubbert MK. 1979 Hubbert estimates from 1956 to 1974 of US oil and gas. In Methods and models for assessing energy resources (ed.MGrenon), pp. 370-383. Oxford, UK: Pergamon Press.
79. Ryan JM. 1965 National Academy report on energy resources: discussion of limitations of logistic projections. Bull. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. 49, 1713-1727.
80. Cavallo AJ. 2004 Hubbert's petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for world oil production forecasts. Nat. Resour. Res. 13, 211-221. (doi:10.1007/s11053- 004-0129-2).
81. Nehring R. 2006 Post-Hubbert challenge is to find new methods to predict production, EUR. Oil Gas J. 104(16), 43-46.
82. Laherrre J. 2004 The future of oil. Int. J. Vehicle Design 35, 9-26.
83. Drew LJ, Schuenemeyer JH. 1992 A petroleum discovery rate forecast revisited-the problem of field growth. Nonrenewable Resour. 1, 51-60. (doi:10.1007/BF01782112).
84. Root DH, Mast RF. 1993 Future growth in known oil and gas fields. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 77, 479-484.
85. Nehring R. 2006 Two basins show Hubbert's method underestimates future oil production. Oil Gas J. 104(13), 37-44.
86. Nehring R. 2006 How Hubbert method fails to predict oil production in the Permian Basin. Oil Gas J. 104(15), 30-35.
87. Verma MK. 2003 Modified Arrington method for calculating reserve growth; a new model for United States oil and gas fields. Reston, VA: US Geological Survey.
88. Campbell CJ. 1996 Status of world oil depletion at the end of 1995. Energy Explor. Exploit. 14, 63-81.
89. Ivanhoe LF. 1996 Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply. World Oil 217, 91-94.
90. Ryan JT. 1973 An analysis of crude oil discovery rates in Alberta. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Bull. 21, 219-235.
91. Stitt W. 1982 Current problems in oil and gas modelling. In Oil and gas supply modelling (ed. SI Gass), pp. 142-170. NBS Special Publication 631. Gaithersburg, MD: National Bureau of Standards.
92. Byrd LT, Kumar RM, Williams AF, Moore DL. 1985 US oil and gas finding and development costs 1973-1982, lower 48 onshore and offshore. J. Petrol. Technol. 31, 2040-2048.
93. Forbes KF, Zampelli EM. 2000 Technology and the exploratory success rate in the U.S. offshore. Energy J. 21, 109-120. (doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ- Vol21-No1-5) 94. IEA. 2008 World energy outlook 2008. Paris, France: International Energy Agency, OECD.
94. Laherrre J. 2001 Estimates of oil reserves. Paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 19 June 2001. See http://www-personal.umich.edu/ ?twod/oil-ns/articles/laherrere-long-iew2001.pdf.
95. Laherrre J. 2003 Future of oil supplies. Energy Explor. Exploit. 21, 227-267. (doi:10.1260/ 014459803769520061).
96. Campbell CJ, Laherrre JH. 1998 The end of cheap oil. Sci. Am. 278, 60. (doi:10.1038/ scientificamerican0398-78).
97. Managi S, Opaluch JJ, Jin D, Grigalunas TA. 2005 Technological change and petroleum exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy Policy 33, 619-632. (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.09.007).
98. Cleveland CJ, Kaufmann RK. 1997 Natural gas in the US: how far can technology stretch the resource base. Energy J. 18, 89-108. (doi:10.5547/ ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-5)