Estimating cliff retreat in southern California considering sea level rise using a sand balance approach

Marine Geology

Volumn 348, Issue , 2014, Pages 15-26

  Young, A P ^a   Flick, R E ^a   O'Reilly, W C ^a   Chadwick, D B ^b   Crampton, W C ^c   Helly, J J ^a,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b Naval Command   (United States)

^c TerraCosta Consulting Group   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

California; Coastal cliffs; Coastal erosion; Coastal retreat model; Sea level rise

Indexed keywords

CALIFORNIA; COASTAL CLIFF; COASTAL EROSION; COASTAL RETREAT; SEA LEVEL RISE;

COASTAL ZONES; EROSION; ESTIMATION; OPTICAL RADAR; SAND; SEA LEVEL;

BEACHES;

CLIFF; COASTAL EROSION; LIDAR; NEARSHORE DYNAMICS; SAND; SATELLITE DATA; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SHORELINE; SHORELINE CHANGE; TIMESCALE;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84890335473     PISSN: 00253227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.margeo.2013.11.007     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Ashton A.D., Walkden M.J., Dickson M.E. Equilibrium responses of cliffed coasts to changes in the rate of sea level rise. Marine Geology 2011, 284:217-229.
2. Barlow J., Lim M., Rosser N., Petley D., Brain M., Norman E., Geer M. Modeling cliff erosion using negative power law scaling of rockfalls. Geomorphology 2012, 139-140:416-424.
3. Barnard P.L., Hoover D. A seamless, high-resolution, coastal digital elevation model (DEM) for Southern California. US Geological Survey Technical Report 2010, 487.
4. Belov A.P., Davies P., Williams A.T. Mathematical modeling of basal coastal cliff erosion in uniform strata: a theoretical approach. The Journal of Geology 1999, 107:99-109.
5. Berggreen R. Geology of the proposed Camp Pendleton LNG site, San Diego County, California. Geologic Guide of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station and Adjacent Regions of Southern California 1979, 49-62. Publications Committee, Pacific Section AAPG, Thousand Oaks, California. D.L. Fife (Ed.).
6. Bray M.J., Hooke J.M. Prediction of soft-cliff retreat with accelerating sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research 1997, 13:453-467.
7. Bromirski P.D., Miller A.J., Flick R.E., Auad G. Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: indications for imminent acceleration. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011, 116:C07005.
8. Bromirski P.D., Miller A.J., Flick R.E. North Pacific sea level trends. EOS. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 2012, 93(27):249-256.
9. Brooks S.M., Spencer T. Shoreline retreat and sediment release in response to accelerating sea level rise: measuring and modelling cliffline dynamics on the Suffolk Coast, UK. Global and Planetary Change 2012, 80-81:165-179.
10. Bruun P. Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. American Society Civil Engineers Proceedings. Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division 1962, 88:117-130.
11. Castedo R., Murphy W., Lawrence J., Paredes C. A new process-response coastal recession model of soft rock cliffs. Geomorphology 2012, 177-178:128-143.
12. Chadwick B., Flick R., Helly J., Nishikawa T., Wang P.F., O'Reilly W., Guza R., Bromirski P., Young A., Crampton W., Wild B., Canner I. A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest US military installations. Proceedings of Oceans 2011, Kona, Hawaii 2011.
13. Collins B.D., Kayen R., Sitar N. Process-based empirical prediction of landslides in weakly lithified coastal cliffs, San Francisco, California, USA. Landslides and Climate Change-Proceedings of the International Conference on Landslides and Climate Change, Isle of Wight 2007, 175-184. London, Taylor & Francis, United Kingdom.
14. Cooper J.A.G., Pilkey O.H. Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule. Global and Planetary Change 2004, 43:157-171.
15. Council National Research Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications 1987, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., (160 pp.).
16. Dar I.A., Dar M.A. Prediction of shoreline recession using geospatial technology: a case study of Chennai Coast, Tamil Nadu, India. Journal of Coastal Research 2009, 25:1276-1286.
17. Dean R.G. Equilibrium beach profiles: characteristics and applications. Journal of Coastal Research 1991, 7:53-84.
18. Dean R.G., Maurmeyer E.M. Models for beach profile response. CRC Handbook of Coastal Processes and Erosion 1983, 151-165.
19. Dickson M.E., Walkden M.J., Hall J.W. Systemic impacts of climate change on an eroding coastal region over the twenty-first century. Climatic Change 2007, 84:141-166.
20. Ehlig P.L. Geologic report on the area adjacent to the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, Northwestern San Diego County, California 1977, 113-132. Neotectonics and Coastal Instability, Orange and Northern San Diego Counties, California. M.R. Legg, G.G. Kuhn, R.J. Shlemon (Eds.).
21. Emery K.O., Kuhn G.G. Sea cliffs: their processes, profiles, and classification. Geological Society of America Bulletin 1982, 93:644-654.
22. Everts C.H. Seacliff retreat and coarse sediment yields in southern California. Coastal Sediments 1991 1991, 1586-1598. ASCE.
23. Flick R.E. Shoreline Erosion Assessment and Atlas of the San Diego Region 1994, 2 vols. California Department of Boating and Waterways, Sacramento, California.
24. Flick R.E., Wanetick J.R., Elwany M.H.S., Grove R.S., Waldorf B.W. Beach changes from construction of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station 1964-1989. Shore and Beach 2010, 78(4):12-25.
25. Griggs G., Patsch K., Savoy L. Living with the Changing California Coast 2005, University of California Press.
26. Hackney C., Darby S.E., Leyland J. Modelling the response of soft cliffs to climate change: a statistical, process-response model using accumulated excess energy. Geomorphology 2013, 187:108-121.
27. Hall J.W., Meadowcroft I.C., Lee E.M., van Gelder P.H. Stochastic simulation of episodic soft coastal cliff recession. Coastal Engineering 2002, 46(3):159-174.
28. Hallermeier R.J. Uses for a calculated limit depth to beach erosion. Proceedings 16th Conference on Coastal Engineering 1978, 1493-1512. ASCE.
29. Hallermeier R.J. A profile zonation for seasonal sand beaches from wave climate. Coastal Engineering 1981, 4:253-277.
30. Hands E.B. The Great Lakes as a test model for profile responses to sea level changes. Handbook of Coastal Processes and Erosion 1983, 176-189. C.R.C. Press, Boca Raton, Florida. P.D. Komar (Ed.).
31. Hapke C., Plant N. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model. Marine Geology 2010, 278(1):140-149.
32. Hapke C., Reid D. Cliff Erosion Rates for Southern California Generated at a 20m Transect Spacing, 1928-1998: Open-File Report 2007-1112 2007, U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Santa Cruz, California.
33. Hapke C.J., Reid D., Richmond B. Rates and trends of coastal change in California and the regional behavior of the beach and cliff system. Journal of Coastal Research 2009, 25(3):603-615.
34. Inman D.L., Masters P.M. Masters Budget of sediment and prediction of the future state of the coast. California Storm and Tidal Waves Study, State of the Coast Report 1991, Chap. 9, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles District, (111 pp.).
35. Jones D.G., Williams A.T. Statistical analysis of factors influencing cliff erosion along a section of the west Wales coast, U.K. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 1991, 16:95-111.
36. Kennedy, M.P., 2001. Geologic map of the Las Pulgas Canyon 7.5' quadrangle, San Diego County, California: a digital database, version 1.0, California Division of Mines and Geology, scale 1:24,000, 1 plate.
37. Kennedy, M.P., Tan, S.S., 2007. Geologic map of the Oceanside 30'×60' quadrangle, California, California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, scale 1:100,000, 1 plate.
38. Kuhn G.G., Shepard F.P. Sea Cliffs, Beaches, and Coastal Valleys of San Diego County: Some Amazing Histories and Some Horrifying Implications 1984, University of CA Press, Berkeley, CA, (193 pp.).
39. Leatherman S.P. Modeling shore response to sea-level rise on sedimentary coasts. Progress in Physical Geography 1990, 14(4):447-464.
40. Lee E.M. Coastal cliff behaviour: observations on the relationship between beach levels and recession rates. Geomorphology 2008, 101:558-571.
41. Lee E.M., Hall J.W., Meadowcroft I.C. Coastal cliff recession: the use of probabilistic prediction methods. Geomorphology 2001, 40(3):253-269.
42. Lee E., Meadowcroft I., Hall J., Walkden M. Coastal landslide activity: a probabilistic simulation model. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 2002, 61(4):347-355.
43. Limber P.W., Murray A.B. Beach and sea-cliff dynamics as a driver of long-term rocky coastline evolution and stability. Geology 2011, 39(12):1147-1150.
44. Maurer E.P., Hidalgo H.G., Das T., Dettinger M.D., Cayan D.R. The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2010, 14(6):1125-1138.
45. Naylor L.A., Stephenson W.J., Trenhaile A.S. Rock coast geomorphology: recent advances and future research directions. Geomorphology 2010, 114(1):3-11.
46. Nicholls R.J., Marinova N., Lowe J.A., Brown S., Vellinga P., de Gusmão D., Hinkel J., Tol R.S. Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4 C world' in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2011, 369(1934):161-181.
47. Pilkey O.H., Cooper J.A.G. Society and sea level rise. Science 2004, 303(5665):1781-1782.
48. Quinn J.D., Philip L.K., Murphy W. Understanding the recession of the Holderness Coast, east Yorkshire, UK: a new presentation of temporal and spatial patterns. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology 2009, 42(2):165-178.
49. Quinn J.D., Rosser N.J., Murphy W., Lawrence J.A. Identifying the behavioural characteristics of clay cliffs using intensive monitoring and geotechnical numerical modelling. Geomorphology 2010, 120(3):107-122.
50. Rahmstorf S. A new view on sea level rise. Nature Reports Climate Change 2010, 44-45.
51. Revell D.L., Battalio R., Spear B., Ruggiero P., Vandever J. A methodology for predicting future coastal hazards due to sea-level rise on the California Coast. Climatic Change 2011, 109:251-276.
52. Runyan K., Griggs G.B. The effects of armoring seacliffs on the natural sand supply to the beaches of California. Journal of Coastal Research 2003, 19(2):336-347.
53. Small C., Nicholls R.J. A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research 2003, 19(3):584-599.
54. Styles T.D., Coggan J.S., Pine R.J. Back analysis of the Joss Bay Chalk Cliff Failure using numerical modelling. Engineering Geology 2011, 120(1):81-90.
55. Sunamura T. Projection of future coastal cliff recession under sea level rise induced by the greenhouse effect: Nii-jima Island, Japan. Transactions of the Japanese Geomorphological Union 1988, 9(1):17-33.
56. Tan, S.S., 1999. Geologic map of the San Clemente 7.5' quadrangle, Orange and San Diego County, California: a digital database, version 1.0, California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, scale 1:24000, 1 plate.
57. Tan, S.S., 2001. Geologic map of the San Onofre Bluff 7.5' quadrangle, San Diego County, California: a digital database, version 1.0, California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, scale 1:24000, 1 plate.
58. Trenhaile A.S. Modeling the development of wave-cut shore platforms. Marine Geology 2000, 166(1):163-178.
59. Trenhaile A.S. Modeling the erosion of cohesive clay coasts. Coastal Engineering 2009, 56(1):59-72.
60. Trenhaile A.S. Modeling cohesive clay coast evolution and response to climate change. Marine Geology 2010, 277(1):11-20.
61. Trenhaile A.S. Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height. Climatic Change 2011, 109(3):599-615.
62. USACOE Coastal cliff sediments: San Diego region, Dana Point to the Mexican border (1887-1947). U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Los Angeles District, Coast of California Storm and Tidal Wave Study 88-8 1988, (275 pp.).
63. USACOE Sediment Budget Report, Oceanside Littoral Cell, Coast of California Storm and Tidal Wave Study 90-2 1990, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles District, (110 pp.).
64. USACOE Water Resource Policies and Authorities Incorporating Sea-level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs. Circular No. 1165-2-211 2009, Department of the Army, US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC, (31 pp.).
65. Vandamme J., Zou Q., Ellis E. Novel particle method for modelling the episodic collapse of soft coastal bluffs. Geomorphology 2012, 138(1):295-305.
66. Walkden M., Dickson M. Equilibrium erosion of soft rock shores with a shallow or absent beach under increased sea level rise. Marine Geology 2008, 251(1):75-84.
67. Walkden M.J.A., Hall J.W. A predictive mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores. Coastal Engineering 2005, 52(6):535-563.
68. Walkden M.J., Hall J.W. A mesoscale predictive model of the evolution and management of a soft-rock coast. Journal of Coastal Research 2011, 27(3):529-543.
69. Wolinsky M.A., Murray A.B. A unifying framework for shoreline migration: 2. Application to wave-dominated coasts. Journal of Geophysical Research 2009, 114(F1):F01009.
70. Woodroffe C.D., Murray-Wallace C.V. Sea-level rise and coastal change: the past as a guide to the future. Quaternary Science Reviews 2012, 54:4-11.
71. Young A.P., Ashford S.A. Application of airborne LIDAR for seacliff volumetric change and beach-sediment budget contributions. Journal of Coastal Research 2006, 22(2):307-318.
72. Young A.P., Guza R.T., Flick R.E., O'Reilly W.C., Gutierrez R. Rain, waves, and short-term evolution of composite seacliffs in southern California. Marine Geology 2009, 267(1):1-7.
73. Young A.P., Raymond J.H., Sorenson J., Johnstone E.A., Driscoll N.W., Flick R.E., Guza R.T. Coarse sediment yields from seacliff erosion in the Oceanside littoral cell. Journal of Coastal Research 2010, 26(3):580-585.
74. Zhang K., Douglas B.C., Leatherman S.P. Global warming and coastal erosion. Climatic Change 2004, 64(1):41-58.