A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market

Energy Policy

Volumn 64, Issue , 2014, Pages 49-57

  Alquist, Ron ^a   Guénette, Justin Damien ^a  

^a BANK OF CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Global oil supply; North American crude oil market; Unconventional crude oil

Indexed keywords

CRUDE OIL MARKET; CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION; DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCES; EXPORT RESTRICTIONS; GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES; NORTH AMERICAN MARKET; OIL-RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY; PRODUCTION INCREASE;

COMMERCE; COSTS; CRUDE OIL; OIL WELLS;

WELL STIMULATION;

CRUDE OIL; ENERGY MARKET; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY USE; OIL SUPPLY; PRICE DYNAMICS;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84889608690     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.002     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Alexander T., Baihly J., Boyer C., Clark B., Waters G., Jochen V., Le Calvez J., Lewis R., Miller C., Thaeler J., Toelle B. Shale gas revolution. Schlumberger Oilfield Review 2011, 23:40-55.
2. Alquist R., Gervais O. The role of financial speculation in driving the price of crude oil, Energy Journal 2013, 34(3):2013. 10.5547/01956574.34.3.
3. Alquist, R., Kilian, L., Vigfusson, R., forthcoming. Forecasting the price of oil, in: Elliott, G. Timmermann, A., (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 2, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
4. Bank of Canada, 2012. Monetary policy report. July. Available at http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/07/periodicals/mpr/mpr-july-2012/.
5. Bank of Canada, 2013. Monetary policy report. April. Available at http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/04/periodicals/mpr/mpr-2013-04-17/.
6. Baumeister C., Kilian L. Real-time forecasts of the real price of oil. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 2012, 30:326-336.
7. Baumeister, C., Peersman, G., forthcoming. Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
8. Blanch, F., Schels, S., Kim, S., Helles, P., Widmer, M., 2013. Global energy paper: medium-term oil outlook. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Commodities, February.
9. Borenstein, S., Kellogg, R., forthcoming. The incidence of an oil glut: who benefits from cheap crude oil in the midwest? Energy Journal.
10. Boyer C., Clark B., Jochen V., Lewis R. Shale gas: a global resource. Schlumberger Oilfield Review 2011, 23:28-39.
11. Büyükşahin B., Lee T., Moser J., Robe M. Physical markets, paper markets and the WTI-Brent spread. Energy Journal 2013, 34. 10.5547/01956574.34.3.
12. Büyükşahin, B., Robe, M., 2011. Does paper oil matter? Working paper, American University, July. SSRN paper No. 1855264.
13. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, 2012. Crude oil forecasts, markets and pipelines, June. Available at http://www.capp.ca/forecast/Pages/default.aspx.
14. Carr, R., Chakravarthy, C., Larrabee, J., 2011. Revolution or evolution? Oilfield Technology. March.
15. Dargay J., Dermot G., Sommer M. Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960-2030. Energy Journal 2007, 28:143-170.
16. Della Vigna, M., Murti, A., Morris, H., Singer, B., Mattar, F., Banerjee, N., Mamedov, G., Hackworth, P., 2012. Global energy: oil under-delivery and technological innovation split the industry. Goldman Sachs Equity Research, October.
17. Economist, 2013. Frack to the Future. 2 February.
18. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011. World shale gas resources: an initial assessment of 14 regions outside the United States. April. Available at http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/.
19. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2012. Annual energy outlook 2013 early release report. December. Available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er%282013%29.pdf.
20. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2013. This week in petroleum. February. Available at http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2013/130213/twipprint.html.
21. Fenton, C., Brown, J., Martin, D., Sullivan, R., Hansen, M., Kabra, U., Jain, V., 2012. Daily oil note: Shifting rail costs driving Brent-WTI. J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research, October.
22. Hamilton, J., 2009. Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, 215-261.
23. Hamilton, J., 2012. Oil prices, exhaustible resources, and economic growth. Prepared for Handbook of Energy and Climate Change. October. Available at http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/handbook_climate.pdf.
24. Hoberg, G., Rivers, A., Salmons, G., 2012. Comparative pipeline politics: oil sands pipeline controversies in Canada and the United States. Prepared for Delivery at the American Political Science Association annual meeting, New Orleans, August.
25. Hook M., Hirsch R., Aleklett K. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Policy 2009, 37:2262-2272.
26. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2008. World energy outlook. November.
27. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012a. Oil medium-term market report 2012. October.
28. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2012b. World energy outlook. November.
29. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2013. Monthly oil data services. May. Available at http://www.iea.org/stats/mods.asp.
30. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2011. World economic outlook. April.
31. Johnson C., Boersma T. Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas. Energy Policy 2013, 53:389-399.
32. Kefferputz, R., 2010. Shale fever: replicating the U.S. gas revolution in the EU? Center for European Policy Studies Policy Brief, June.
33. Kilian L. Not all oil price shocks are alike: disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review 2009, 99:1053-1069.
34. Kilian L., Hicks B. Did unexpectedly strong economic growth cause the oil price shock of 2003-2008?. Journal of Forecasting 2012, Available at. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.2243/pdf.
35. Kilian, L., Murphy, D., 2013. The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Article first published online: 10 APR 2013DOI: 10.1002/jae.2322.
36. King, G., 2010. Thirty years of gas shale fracturing: What have we learned? Society of Petroleum Engineers Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, SPE 133456.
37. Lippi F., Nobili A. Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis. Journal of the European Economic Association 2012, 10:1059-1083.
38. Longson, A, Corda, C., Lee, A., 2013. North America crude oil WTI-Brent: Brent not what it seems in U.S. diff equation. Morgan Stanley Research, March.
39. Maugeri, L., 2012. Oil: the next revolution. Belfer Center for Sciences and International Affairs, Kennedy School, Harvard. June.
40. McGlade C.E. A review of the uncertainties in estimates of global oil resources. Energy Journal 2012, 47:262-270.
41. Morse, E., Lee, E., Dray, D., Bond, K., Fordham, T., Fediuk, S., 2013. Energy 2020 independence day. Citibank GPS: Global Perspectives and Solutions, February.
42. National Energy Board of Canada, 2006. Canada's oil sands opportunities and challenges to 2015: an update. Available at http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/lsnd/pprtntsndchllngs20152006/pprtntsndchllngs20152006-eng.pdf.
43. National Energy Board of Canada, 2011. Tight oil developments in the Western Canada sedimentary basin. December. Available at http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/l/tghtdvlpmntwcsb2011/tghtdvlpmntwcsb2011-eng.pdf.
44. Platts, 2013. Special report: New crudes, new markets. March.
45. Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2013. Shale oil: the next energy revolution. February.
46. Rae, M., Della Vigna, M., Singer, B., Syed, W., Murti, A., Hackworth, P., 2012. Shale oil: Where did it all go so right? Goldman Sachs Equity Research, September.
47. Shirley, K., 2001. Shale gas exciting again. American Association of Petroleum Geologists Explorer, March.
48. Sorrel S., Speirs J., Bentley R., Brandt A., Miller R. Global oil depletion: a review of the evidence. Energy Policy 2010, 38:5290-5295.
49. U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), 2011. DOE's early investment in shale gas technology producing results today. Press Release, February. Available at http://fossil.energy.gov/news/techlines/2011/11008-DOE_Shale_Gas_Research_Producing_R.html.
50. Wang, P., Jiang, R., Wang, S., 2012. Lessons learned from North American and current status of unconventional gas exploration and exploitation in China. Society of Petroleum Engineers. In preparation for the European Unconventional Resources Conference and Exhibition, March, SPE 153071.
51. Wood Mackenzie, 2012. China: Shale gas will not satisfy demand, requiring coal-to-gas and additional imports by 2030. Press Release, June. Available at http://www.woodmacresearch.com/cgi-bin/wmprod/portal/corp/corpPressDetail.jsp?oid=10598941.