Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages 1-241

  Gorelick, Steven M ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84889432257     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9781444314526     Document Type: Book

References (395)

1. Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, Simon and Schuster.
2. Darwin, C. (1859). The Origin of Species, reprinted in 1979 by Gramercy Books, Random House, New York: 461 pp.
3. Greene, D. L. (2009). " Measuring Energy Security: Can the United States Achieve Oil Independence? " Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j. enpol.2009.01.041 (in press).
4. Porter, E. D. (1995). " Are We Running Out of Oil? " American Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, American Petroleum Institute, Discussion Paper #081.
5. Hirsch, R. L., R. Bezdek, and R. Wendling (2005). Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory, February 2005.
6. Kerr, R. A. (2007). " The Looming Oil Crisis Could Arrive Uncomfortably Soon, " Science, 316, April 20, 2007: 351.
7. Government Accountability Office (2007). Crude oil: Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production, United States Government Accountability Office, GAO-07-283.
8. Fagan, M. (2000). " Sheikh Yamani predicts price crash as age of oil ends, " Daily Telegraph (London, UK), June 25, 2000.
9. Sweetnam, G. (2008). " Long-term Global Oil Scenarios: Looking Beyond 2030, " EIA 2008 Energy Conference, Washington, DC, April 7, 2008, Energy Information Administration.
10. Economides, M. J. (2007). " The Future of Peak Oil, " The Way Ahead (produced by the Society of Petroleum Engineers), 3 (2).
11. Jackson, P. M. (2007). " Peak Oil Theory Could Distort Energy Policy and Debate, " Journal of Petroleum Technology (produced by the Society of Petroleum Engineers), 59 (2).
12. Howden, D. (2007). " A world without oil, " The Independent (London, UK), June 14, 2007: 1-2. " This scenario of imminent global oil depletion is flatly denied by BP, whose Chief Economist, Peter Davies, has dismissed the arguments of ' peak oil ' theorists " (italics added).
13. Bahorich, M. (2006). " End of oil? No, it ' s a new day dawning, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (31), August 21, 2006.
14. Fossil fuels are natural carbon-rich substances formed from the remains of plants and animals living millions of years ago. Found in Earth, these substances can be burned. They include coal, oil, natural gas, and peat.
15. Hubbert, M. K. (1949). " Energy from Fossil Fuels, " Science, 109 (2823), February 4, 1949: 103-9 (p. 108).
16. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). " Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels, " presented at the Spring Meeting of the Southern District Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, San Antonio, TX, March 1956: Shell Development Company Publication No. 95
17. Hubbert, M. K. (1981). " The world ' s evolving energy system, " American Journal of Physics, 49 (11): 1007-29. 17.
18. Tribute to M. King Hubbert, Letter to Members, National Academy of Sciences, 19(4), April 1990.
19. Hubbert, M. K. (1949). " Energy from Fossil Fuels, " Science, 109 (2823) February 4, 1949: 105.
20. Hubbert, M. K. (1971). " The Energy Resources of the Earth, " Scientific American , 225, September 1971: 31-41 (p. 31).
21. Hubbert, M. K. (1949). " Energy from Fossil Fuels, " Science, 109 (2823) February 4, 1949: 105.
22. US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team, (2000). U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000-Description and Results. US Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-60, 4 CD-ROMs
23. Ahlbrandt, T. S., R. R. Charpentier, T. R. Klett, J. W. Schmoker, C. J. Schenk, and G. F. Ulmishek (2005). " Global Resource Estimates from Total Petroleum Systems, " AAPG Memoir 86, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, OK.
24. Hubbert, M. K. (1969). " Energy Resources, " in Resources and Man, W.H. Freeman and Co. Chapter 8: 157-242.
25. Hallock, J. L. Jr., P. J. Tharakan, C. A. S. Hall, M. Jefferson, and W. Wu (2004). " Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply, " Energy, 29: 1673-96.
26. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). " Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels, " presented at the Spring Meeting of the Southern District Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, March 1956.
27. Davis, S. C. et al. (2008). Transportation Energy Data Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-6981.
28. General Accounting Office (1991). Southwest Asia: Cost of Protecting U.S. Interests. Washington DC: US GAO/NSIAD-91-250, August 1991.
29. Copulas, M. R. (2003). America ' s Achilles Heel-The Hidden Costs of Imported Oil. Washington DC: National Defense Council Foundation, October 2003.
30. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008, http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
31. Exxon Mobil, op-ed piece, March 2006, http://exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/Corporate/OpEd_peakoil.pdf
32. Dukes, J. S. (2003). " Burning Buried Sunshine: Human Consumption of Ancient Solar Energy, " Climatic Change, 61 (1-2): 31-44 (14), Springer.
33. US Geological Survey (2009). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
34. US Minerals Management Service (2006). " Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation ' s Outer Continental Shelf, 2006, " www.mms.gov/revaldiv/PDFs/2006NationalAssessmentBroch ure.pdf
35. US Geological Survey (2009). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
36. US Minerals Management Service (2006). " Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation ' s Outer Continental Shelf, 2006, " www.mms.gov/revaldiv/PDFs/2006NationalAssessmentBroch ure.pdf
37. US Minerals Management Service (2003). " Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation ' s Outer Continental Shelf, 2003 Update, " www.mms.gov/revaldiv/PDFs/2003NationalAssessment Update.pdf
38. www.lloydminsterheavyoil.com/petrochem01.htm#Hydrocarbons
39. www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/deer_2002/session1/2002_deer_eberhardt.pdf
40. Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, Simon and Schuster.
41. Energy Information Administration (2008). " Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers 2007, " www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/020607.pdf
42. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/dscytables2007.xls
43. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/aboutCOs.pdf
44. " Chevron ' s deepwater Jack #2 well touted as breakthrough GoM discovery, " Oil and Gas Financial Journal, 3 (10), 2006.
45. Langley, D. (2006). " Lower Tertiary Trend: A Study in the Impact of Advancing Technology, " Journal of Petroleum Technology, 58 (12), December 2006.
46. Mufson, S. (2006). " U.S. Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost: Chevron-Led Team Discovers Billions of Barrels in Gulf of Mexico ' s Deep Water, " Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2006. www. chevron.com/news/press/Release/?id=2006-09-05
47. " Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers 2007, " www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/tab01.htm
48. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/020607.pdf
49. Pirog, R. (2007). The Role of National Oil Companies in the International Oil Market, Congressional Research Service Report, August 21, 2007.
50. Greene, D. L. (2009). " Measuring Energy Security: Can the United States Achieve Oil Independence? " Energy Policy (in press: doi:10.1016/j. enpol.2009.01.041).
51. Energy Information Administration reporting of Oil and Gas Journal value (January 2008); BP Statistical Review (2008); www.opec.org/home/basket.aspx
52. Energy Information Administration, " OPEC revenues fact sheet, " March 2009.
53. EIA data for average OPEC countries average spot oil price: http://tonto.eia. doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotopecw.htm
54. Green, D. L., and P. N. Leiby (2006). " The Oil Security Metrics Model, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2006/505.
55. Mouawad, J. (2008). " OPEC Says it Will Cut Oil Production, " The New York Times, September 9, 2008.
56. Fletcher, S. (2009). " Market Watch: Crude prices continue downward spiral, " Oil and Gas Journal, January 13, www.ogj.com/display_article/350153/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/MARKET-WATCH:-Crude-prices-continue-downwardspiral/
57. Mouwad, J. (2008). " OPEC Looks to Halt Falling Oil Prices, " The New York Times, December 16, 2008.
58. " Emirates cuts oil supplies, " Associated Press, published in International Herald Tribune, February 26, 2008, www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/02/26/business/ML-Mideast-OPEC.php
59. " Saudi Arabia Committed to Oil Market Stability, " Associated Press, The New York Times, January 14, 2009.
60. " OPEC: World will pay for low oil prices by 2013, " Bloomberg News, March 6, 2009.
61. " OPEC Commentary-Dependence is a two-way street, " April 2007, www.opec.org/opecna/commentaries/2007/Comm042007.htm
62. US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team (2000). U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000-Description and Results. US Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-60, 4 CD-ROMs.
63. Ahlbrandt, T. S., R. R. Charpentier, T. R. Klett, J. W. Schmoker, C. J. Schenk, and G. F. Ulmishek (2005). " Global Resource Estimates from Total Petroleum Systems, " AAPG Memoir 86, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, OK.
64. The effective date of the USGS 2000 Assessment is January 1, 1996, so all oil supply and consumption data in the Assessment are for that date.
65. http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/chaps/AR.pdf Report cites: NRG Associates, Inc. (1995) The significant oil and gas pools of Canada data base, NRG Associates, Inc., Colorado Springs, CO; and Petroconsultants (1996) Petroleum exploration and production database: Houston, Texas.
66. Horn, M. (2007). " Giant fields likely to supply 40 percent+ of world ' s oil and gas, " Oil and Gas Journal, April 9, 2007: 35-7.
67. Ahlbrandt, T. S., R. R. Charpentier, T. R. Klett, J. W. Schmoker, C. J. Schenk, and G. F. Ulmishek, (2005). " Global Resource Estimates from Total Petroleum Systems, " AAPG Memoir 86, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, OK.
68. US Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team (1995). " 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources, " U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118: 20 pp.
69. www.bp.com, data tables from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, subsequently cited as BP Statistical Review.
70. Andrews-Speed, P. (2006). " China ' s energy and environmental policies and their implications for OPEC, " The CEPMLP Internet Journal, 17 (6)
71. Energy Information Administration, 2007, taken as the average April 2006-March 2007 refinery products, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_pct_dc_nus_pct_m.htm
72. EIA and www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html
73. Analytical Testing Services, Inc., Franklin, PA, www.wetestit.com
74. Society of Petroleum Engineers, Glossary: www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/industry/reference/glossary.htm
75. Inflation adjustments based on CPI given by R. Sahr, http://oregonstate.edu/cla/polisci/faculty-research/sahr/sahr.htm
76. Hargreaves, S. (2008). " U.S. Gas: So cheap it hurts, " CNN Money, July 15, 2008;
77. Bello, D. (2008). " The Price of Gas in China, " Scientific American, August 4, 2008.
78. Hughes, J. E., C. R. Knittel, and D. Sperling (2008). " Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand, " The Energy Journal, 29 (1).
79. Cooper, J. C. B. (2003). " Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries, " OPEC Review, 27: 1-8.
80. US Federal Trade Commission (2005). " Gasoline price changes: The dynamics of supply, demand, and competition, " page 135
81. Epsey, M. (1998). " Gasoline Demand Revisited: An International Meta-Analysis of Elasticities, " Energy Economics, 20: 273-95, for long-term elasticity value and their own analysis for the short-term value.
82. Cooper, J. C. B. (2003). Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries, OPEC Review, 27: 1-8.
83. www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/gasoline_q-and-a.html
84. Ye, M., J. Zyren, J. Shore, and M. Burdette (2005). " Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets, " Atlantic Economic Journal, 33: 179-92.
85. Energy Information Administration (2003). California Gasoline Price Study Final Report, November 2003: 49.
86. " House passes gasoline gouging bill, " by Richard Simon, Los Angeles Times, May 23, 2007.
87. US Federal Trade Commission (2005). " Gasoline price changes: The dynamics of supply, demand, and competition, " page 135.
88. Energy Information Administration (2003). California Gasoline Price Study Final Report, November 2003: 48.
89. " Anti-gouging laws don ' t cut gas prices. State probed 50 potential cases; no charges, " by D. R. Baker, San Francisco Chronicle, May 10, 2006.
90. " FTC Head Opposes Anti-Gouging Law; Says Regulation Would be Hard to Enforce and Could Cause Fuel Shortages, " CBS/AP, May 23, 2006, www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/22/business/main1639514.shtml
91. Malthus, T. R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1993 imprint edited by G. Gilbert. Oxford University Press, Chapter 1: 13-14.
92. Sen, A. (1982). " The food problem: Theory and Policy, " Third World Quarterly, 4 (3): 447-59.
93. Turner II, B. L., R. E. Kasperson, P. A. Matson, J. J. McCarthy, R. W. Corell, L. Christensen, N. Eckley, J. X. Kasperson, A. Luers, M. L. Martellog, C. Polsky, A. Pulsiphera, and A. Schiller (2003). " A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science, " Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, July 8, 2003, 100 (14): 8074-9
94. United Nations Food Programme (2008) www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_stop.asp?section=1&sub_section=1
95. Meadows, D., D. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens (1972). The Limits to Growth. Potomac Associates Books: 205.
96. Ivanhoe, L. F. (1997). Hubbert Center Newsletter, #97/1.
97. Laherrère, J. H. (2001). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel?: Discussion , " AAPG Bulletin, 85 (6) June 2001: 1083-7.
98. Tsoskounogloua, M., G. Ayerides, and E. Tritopoulou (2008). " The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects, " Energy Policy, 36 (10): 3797-806.
99. McCabe, P. J. (2001). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel?: Reply, " AAPG Bulletin, 85 (6) June 2001: 1093-7, citing
100. Campbell, C. J. (1997), The Coming Oil Crisis. Brentwood, UK: Multi-Science Publishing Company and Petroconsultants, 210 pp.
101. Hirsch, R. L., R. Bezdek, and R. Wendling (2005). Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory, February 2005.
102. Fanning, L. M. (1950). " A Case History of Oil-shortage Scares, " in Our Oil Resources, second edition, edited by L. M. Fanning. New York: McGraw-Hill, 306-406.
103. Olien, D. D., and R. M. Olien (1993). " Running Out of Oil: Discourse and Public Policy, 1909-1929, " Department of Business and Economic History, 22 (2) winter 1993, citing Response by Secretary of Interior to Senate Resolution, which appears in US Senate, Document 310, 64th Congress, First Session, February 2, 1916.
104. Fanning, L. M. (1950). " A Case History of Oil-shortage Scares, " in Our Oil Resources, second edition, edited by L. M. Fanning. New York: McGraw-Hill, 314.
105. Fanning, L. M. (1950). " A Case History of Oil-shortage Scares, " in Our Oil Resources, second edition, edited by L. M. Fanning. New York: McGraw-Hill, 327-8.
106. Porter, E. D. (1995). American Petroleum Institute, " Are We Running Out of Oil?" American Petroleum Institute, Discussion Paper #081.
107. Based on Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, Simon and Schuster: 588-698.
108. Energy Information Administration, Table 11.7 Crude Oil Prices by Selected Type, 1970-2006, www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1107.html
109. Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, Simon and Schuster.
110. Watkins, G. C. (2006). " Oil scarcity: What have the past three decades revealed? " Energy Policy, 34: 508-14, citing
111. F. Parra, 2004, Oil Politics-A Modern History of Petroleum, I. B. Tauris.
112. Porter, E. D. (1995). American Petroleum Institute, " Are We Running Out of Oil? " American Petroleum Institute, Discussion Paper #081.
113. Adelman, M. A. (1995). The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil Since 1970. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press: 178, citing
114. CIA, " The Geopolitics of Energy, " statement submitted to the Committee on Energy, US Senate, reprinted in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, May 19, 1980: S1-S4.
115. The CPI climbed from 39.8 to 86.3 between 1971 and 1980, ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
116. Energy Information Administration (2001). Future Production for the North Slope of Alaska, 74 pp.
117. Government Accountability Office (2007, February). CRUDE OIL Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production;
118. Hirsch, R. L., R. Bezdek, and R. Wendling (2005). Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, February 2005
119. Kerr, R. A. (2007). " The Looming Oil Crisis Could Arrive Uncomfortably Soon, " Science, 316, April 20, 2007: 351.
120. BP data for 2007 from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008; EIA (2008). World Energy Outlook 2008.
121. Sandrea, R. (2006). " Early New Field Production Estimation Could Assist in Quantifying Supply Trends, " Oil and Gas Journal, May 22, 2006.
122. Campbell. C. J. and J. H. Laherrère (1998). " The End of Cheap Oil, " Scientific American, March 1998: 78-83.
123. Laherrère (2006) presents a more sophisticated analysis that considered a multi-peak Hubbert model with a similar projection of peak oil production and decline.
124. Laherrère, J. H. (2006). " Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve, " Oil and Gas Journal, August 2, 2006.
125. Hubbert, M. K. (1969). " Energy Resources, " in Resources and Man, W. H. Freeman and Co., Chapter 8: 157-242.
126. Horn, M. K. (2006a). " Giant fields 1868-2003, " Data on CD-ROM, in M. Halbouty (ed.), " Giant oil and gas fields of the decade 1990-1999, " AAPG Memoir 78, 2003, 340 pp., modified November 2006 to reflect giant oil discoveries 2000 to 2006. Further updates, personal communication, 2008 and 2009.
127. Horn, M. K. (2007). " Giant fields likely to supply 40%+ of world ' s oil and gas, " Oil and Gas Journal, April 9, 2007: 35-7
128. Horn, M. K. (2009). www. sourcetoreservoir.com
129. IFP Panorama Technical Reports (2005). A Look at New Oil and Gas Discoveries , www.ifp.com/information-publications/notes-de-synthese-panorama/panorama-2005
130. Bahorich, M. (2006). " End of oil? No, it ' s a new day dawning, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (31), August 21, 2006: 30-4.
131. Horn, M. K. (2006b). " World giant oil discoveries seem not to be at an end, " Oil and Gas Journal, November 6, 2006: 33.
132. Data through 2008 from Horn (2009), www.sourcetoreservoir.com
133. Horn, M. K. (2009). www.sourcetoreservoir.com
134. Robelius, F. (2005). " Giant Oil Fields of the World, " Presentation AIM Industrial Contact Day, May 23, 2005. 48. www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=water%20cut
135. Nasser, A. H., and N. G. Saleri (2004). " Reserves and Sustainable Oil Supplies: Role of Technology and Management, " 5th International Oil Summit, Paris, France, April 29, 2004.
136. Simmons, M. R. (2005). " Twilight in the Desert, " World Energy, 8 (2): 44-51.
137. Höök, M., R. Hirsch, and K. Aleklett (2009). " Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production, " Energy Policy, 37 (6): 2262-72.
138. Robelius, F. (2007). " Giant Oil Fields-The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production. " Doctoral thesis, Uppsala University, Sweden.
139. International Energy Agency (2008). World Energy Outlook 2008.
140. Höök, M., R. Hirsch, and K. Aleklett (2009). " Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production, " Energy Policy, 37 (6): 2262-72
141. IEA (2008) World Energy Outlook 2008.
142. Klett, T. R. (2003). " Graphical Comparison of Reserve-Growth Models for Conventional Oil and Gas Accumulations, " Chapter F of Geologic, Engineering, and Assessment Studies of Reserve Growth, edited by T. S. Dyman, J. W. Schmoker, and M. Verma, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-F.
143. Laherrère, J. H. (2000). " Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve, " Oil and Gas Journal, 98 (16), April 17, 2000.
144. Klett, T. R. (2003). " Graphical Comparison of Reserve-Growth Models for Conventional Oil and Gas Accumulations, " Chapter F of Geologic, Engineering, and Assessment Studies of Reserve Growth, edited by T. S. Dyman, J. W. Schmoker, and M. Verma, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-F.
145. Bahorich, M. (2006). " End of oil? No, it ' s a new day dawning, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (31), August 21, 2006: 30-4.
146. World Fact Book, 2008, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html and United Nations, Division of Economic and Social Affairs, 2008, http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp
147. Sahr, R. (2009). " Inflation conversion factors for dollars, 1774 to estimated 2018, " http://oregonstate.edu/cla/polisci/faculty-research/sahr/sahr.htm
148. Hubbert, M. K. (1969). " Energy Resources, " in Resources and Man, W. H. Freeman and Co., Chapter 8: 157-242.
149. Wood, J. H., G. R. Long, and D. F. Morehouse, (2004). Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert. Energy Information Administration. Feature article.
150. Mohr, S. H. and G. M. Evans (2007). " Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak, " Oil and Gas Journal, 105 (17), May 7, 2007.
151. Wood, J. H., G. R. Long, and D. F. Morehouse, (2004). Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert. Energy Information Administration. Feature article.
152. Deming, D. (2003). " Are We Running Out of Oil? " Policy Backgrounder No. 159, The National Center for Policy Analysis, Dallas, TX and Washington DC.
153. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). " Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels, " presented at the Spring Meeting of the Southern District Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, San Antonio, TX, March 1956: Shell Development Company Publication No. 95.
154. Deming, D. (2000). " Oil: Are We Running Out? " Second Wallace E. Pratt Memorial Conference, Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, January 12-15, 2000, San Diego, California.
155. Deming, D. (2003). " Are We Running Out of Oil? " Policy Backgrounder No. 159, The National Center for Policy Analysis, Dallas, TX and Washington DC.
156. Hall, C. A. S., and C. J. Cleveland (1981). " Petroleum Drilling and Production in the United States: Yield per Effort and Net Energy Analysis, " Science, 211, February 6, 1981: 576-9.
157. Deming, D. (2000). " Oil: Are We Running Out? " Second Wallace E. Pratt Memorial Conference, Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, January 12-15, 2000, San Diego, California.
158. Hubbert, M. K. (1982). " Techniques of prediction as applied to the production of oil and gas, " in S. I. Gass (ed.), Oil and Gas Supply Modeling, National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 631: 16-141.
159. Deming, D. (2000). " Oil: Are We Running Out? " Second Wallace E. Pratt Memorial Conference, Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, January 12-15, 2000, San Diego, California.
160. Hubbert, M. K. (1982). " Techniques of prediction as applied to the production of oil and gas, " in S. I. Gass (ed.), Oil and Gas Supply Modeling, National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 631: 139.
161. Linden, H. J. (2004). " Rising expectations of ultimate oil, gas recovery to have critical impact on energy, environmental policy-Part 1, " Oil and Gas Journal, 102 (3): 18.
162. Department of Energy (2006). Undeveloped Domestic Oil Resources: The foundation for increasing oil production and a viable domestic oil industry, prepared by Advanced Resources International, February 2006.
163. Lynch, M. (2003). " Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers ' assessment, " Oil and Gas Journal, 101 (27), July 14, 2003.
164. Charpentier, R. R. (2005). " Estimating undiscovered resources and reserve growth: contrasting approaches, " in A. G. Dore and B. A. Vining (eds), Petroleum Geology: North-West Europe and Global Perspectives-Proceedings of the 6th Petroleum Geology Conference, Petroleum Geology Conferences Ltd., Published by the Geological Society, London.
165. Duncan, R. C. (2001). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel?: Discussion , " AAPG Bulletin, 85 (6), June 2001: 1090-2.
166. Deffeyes, K. S. (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert ' s Peak. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
167. Brandt, A. R. (2007). " Testing Hubbert, " Energy Policy, 35: 3074-88.
168. Deming, D. (2000). " Oil: Are We Running Out? " Second Wallace E. Pratt Memorial Conference, Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, January 12-15, 2000, San Diego, California.
169. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). " Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels, " presented at the Spring Meeting of the Southern District Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, March, 1956; graph and prediction reproduced in 1962 report Energy Resources, a report to the Committee on Natural Resources, National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council publication 1000-D, 141 pp.
170. Hubbert, M. K. (1971). " The Energy Resources of the Earth, " Scientific American, in compilation Energy and Power: 31-40.
171. Maugeri, L. (2006). The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World ' s Most Controversial Resource. Greenwood Publishing Group, Incorporated: 204.
172. Robelius, F. (2007). " Giant Oil Fields-The Highway to Oil, " Doctoral dissertation, Uppsala University, Sweden: 75.
173. Oil and Gas Journal, " Worldwide look at reserves and production, " Pennwell, December 24, 2007 (http://downloads.pennnet.com/pnet/surveys/ogj/071224ogj_24-25.pdf) and December 22, 2008 (http://downloads.pennnet. com/pnet/surveys/ogj/081222ogjwwlookatresandprod.pdf)
174. Hubbert, M. K. (1959). " Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry " (preprint March 1959), Shell Development Company Publication 204, Houston, TX, 42 pp.
175. Tierney, J. (1990). " Betting the Planet, " The New York Times, December 2, 1990.
176. J. Giles, " Scientific wagers: Wanna bet? " Nature 420, November 28, 2002: 354-5, doi:10.1038/420354a. In March 2009, John Holdren was approved as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology (The New York Times, March 12, 2009).
177. US Census Bureau, www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html
178. Tierney, J. " Betting the Planet, " The New York Times, December 2, 1990; " The $10,000 Question, " The New York Times, August 23, 2005.
179. Brown, H. (1970). " Human materials production as a process in the biosphere, " Scientific American, 223 (3), September 1970: 195-208.
180. Brooks, W. E. (2006). 2005 Minerals Year Book, Mercury. US Geological Survey;
181. USGS (2007). Mineral Commodity Summary, page 104, Mercury
182. USGS (2000). Fact Sheet 146-00, Mercury in the Environment.
183. McCabe, P. J. (1998). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11): 2110-34.
184. Hall, C. A. S., and C. J. Cleveland (1981). " Petroleum Drilling and Production in the United States: Yield per Effort and Net Energy Analysis, " Science, 211 (6), February 1981: 576-9.
185. Rifai, T. (1974). Pricing of Crude Oil: Economic and strategic guidelines for an international energy policy. New York: Praeger, 138. Original source: World Tanker Fleet Review. London: John I. Jacobs and Co., 12/31/72.
186. Held, C. (2000). Riches Beneath the Earth, from Middle East Patterns. People, Places and Politics. Westview Press, Perseus Books Group
187. Rifai, T. (1974). Pricing of Crude Oil: Economic and strategic guidelines for an international energy policy. New York: Praeger.
188. Porter, E. D. (1995). " Are We Running Out of Oil? " American Petroleum Institute, Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, Discussion Paper #081.
189. Stauffer, T. [1994a]. " Trends in Oil Production, Costs in the Middle East, and Elsewhere, " Oil and Gas Journal, March 21: 105-7.
190. R. Sahr (2009), http://oregonstate.edu/cla/polisci/faculty-research/sahr/sahr.htm
191. Williamson, S. H. (2008). " Six Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount, 1774 to present, " www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/#
192. Sahr, R. (2009). Inflation Conversion Factors for Dollars 1774 to Estimated 2018, http://oregonstate.edu/cla/polisci/faculty-research/sahr/sahr.htm
193. Fisher, A. C. (1981). Resource and Environmental Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 284 pp.
194. Livernois, J., and P. Martin (2003). " Price, scarcity rent, and a modified r per cent rule for non-renewable resources, " Canadian Journal of Economics, 34 (3): 827-45.
195. Hamilton, J. D. (2009). " Understanding crude oil prices, " Energy Journal, 30 (2), based on NBER Working Paper No. 14492, issued in November 2008.
196. Fisher, A. C. (1981). Resource and Environmental Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 284 pp.
197. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2004-World Oil Markets, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo04/oil.html
198. McCabe, P. J. (1998). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11): 2110-34.
199. McCabe (1998). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11): 2110-34.
200. Department of Energy (2006). " Undeveloped domestic oil resources: The foundation for increasing oil production and a viable domestic oil industry, " prepared by Advanced Resources International.
201. McCabe (1998). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11): 2110-34.
202. Weeks, L. G. (1948). " Highlights on 1947 developments in foreign petroleum fields, " AAPG Bulletin, 32: 1093-1160.
203. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). " Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels, " Shell Development Company Publication 95.
204. Salvador, A. (2005). " Energy: A historical perspective and 21st century forecast, " American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Studies in Geology No. 54.
205. McCabe, P. J. (1998). " Energy resources-cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11): 2110-34.
206. Salvador, A. (2005). " Energy: A historical perspective and 21st century forecast , " American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Studies in Geology, No. 54: 46, Table 8.
207. Lynch, M. (2003). " Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers ' assessment, " Oil and Gas Journal, July 14, 2003
208. Maugeri, L. (2004). " Oil: Never Cry Wolf-Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from Over, " Science, 304 (21), May 2004: 1114-15.
209. Campbell, C. J. and J. H. Laherrère (1998). " The end of cheap oil, " Scientific American, March 1998: 78-83.
210. Campbell, C. J. (2002). " Forecasting Global Oil Supply 2000-2050, " Hubbert Center Newsletter # 2002/3, M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies, on page 5: " The base-case scenario points to 2010, but it could come sooner if economic recovery should drive up the demand for oil. "
211. Campbell, C. J. and J. H. Laherrère (1998). " The end of cheap oil, " Scientific American, March 1998: 78-83.
212. Charpentier (2005), p. 6
213. Klett et al(2000) and Klett and Schmoker (2003).
214. Charpentier, R. R. (2005). " Estimating undiscovered resources and reserve growth: contrasting approaches, " in A. G. Dore and B. A. Vining (eds), Petroleum Geology: North-West Europe and Global Perspectives-Proceedings of the 6th Petroleum Geology Conference, 3-9. Petroleum Geology Conferences Ltd., published by the Geological Society, London;
215. Klett, T. R., R. R. Charpentier, J. W. Schmoker, and E. D. Attanasi (2000). " Predicting changes in world oil and gas field sizes. " Abstract, presented at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, April 16-19, A79
216. Klett, T. R., and J. W. Schmoker (2003). " Reserve growth of the world ' s giant oil fields, " in M. T. Halbouty (ed.), Giant oil and gas fields of the decade 1990-1999. American Association of Petroleum Geologists Memoir, 78: 107-22.
217. Discussion based on Demirmen (2004) and Securities and Exchange Commission case filing
218. Demirmen, F. (2004). " Shell ' s reserve revision: A critical look, " Oil and Gas Journal, April 5, 2004: 43-6.
219. Curtiss, D. (2009). " Reserves Disclosure Rules Revised, " AAPG Explorer, February 2009, www.aapg.org/explorer/washingtonwatch/2009/02feb.cfm
220. EIA data based on Oil and Gas Journal, January 2008 and 2009.
221. Bahorich, M. (2006). " End of oil? No it ' s a new day dawning, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (31), August 21, 2006: 30-4.
222. McCabe, P. J. (1998). " Energy resources-Cornucopia or empty barrel? " AAPG Bulletin, 82 (11), 2110-134.
223. US Minerals Management Service (2006). " Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation ' s Outer Continental Shelf, 2006 "
224. Pinsker, L. M. (2003). " Raining hydrocarbons in the Gulf, " Geotimes: www. geotimes.org/june03/NN_gulf.html
225. DOE (2005). " Performance Profiles of Major Producers 2004 "
226. DOE (2008). " Performance Profiles of Major Producers 2007. "
227. DOE (2008). " Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers 2007. "
228. Klett, T. R. (1998). " Graphical Comparison of Reserve-Growth Models for Conventional Oil and Gas Accumulations, " Chapter F of Geologic, Engineering, and Assessment Studies of Reserve Growth, edited by T. S. Dyman, J. W. Schmoker, and M. Verma, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-F, US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey.
229. Schmoker, J. W. and T. R. Klett (2000). " Estimating potential reserve growth of known (discovered) fields-A component of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000, " in US Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000: US Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-60, 4 CD-ROMs, 20 p.
230. Klett, T. R., D. L. Gautier, and T. A. Ahlbrandt (2005). " An evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000, " AAPG bulletin, 89 (8), 1033-42. 95. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/pp05overview.ppt, PowerPoint presentation values and 2006 value from 2007 EIA FRS report.
231. Horn, M. K. (2009). www.sourcetoreservoir.com.
232. Clendenning, A. (2008). " Brazil oil field could be huge find, " Associated Press, April 14, 2008.
233. Horn, M. K. (2009). www.sourcetoreservoir.com
234. Sandrea, R. (2006). " Early new field production estimation could assist in quantifying supply trends, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (20), May 22, 2006.
235. Horn, M. K. (2006). " Giant fields 1868-2003, " data on CD-ROM, in M. Halbouty (ed.), " Giant oil and gas fields of the decade 1990-1999, " AAPG Memoir 78, 2003, 340 pp., modified November 2006 to reflect giant oil-field discoveries 2000 to 2006.
236. Izundu, U. (2008). " Special Report: Ghana due first oil output in 2010 with Jubilee start-up, " Oil and Gas Journal, 106 (20), May 26, 2008.
237. Sandrea, I., and R. Sandrea (2007). " Exploration trends show continued promise in world ' s offshore basins, " Oil and Gas Journal, 105 (9), March 5, 2007: 34-40.
238. Sandrea, R. (2006). " Early new field production estimation could assist in quantifying supply trends, " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (20), May 22, 2006.
239. Bahorich, M. (2006). " End of oil? No it ' s a new day dawning. " Oil and Gas Journal, 104 (31), August 21, 2006: 30-4.
240. Sandrea, I., and M. Barkindo (2007). " West Africa-1: Undiscovered oil potential still large offWest Africa, " Oil and Gas Journal, 105 (2), January 8, 2007.
241. Mufson, S. (2006). " U.S. Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost, Chevron-Led Team Discovers Billions of Barrels in Gulf of Mexico ' s Deep Water, " Washington Post, Wednesday, September 6, 2006.
242. " Chevron makes new oil discovery in Gulf of Mexico, " Reuters (UK), February 5, 2009.
243. Charpentier, R. R. (2005). " Estimating undiscovered resources and reserve growth: contrasting approaches, " in A. G. Dore and B. A. Vining (eds), Petroleum Geology: North-West Europe and Global Perspectives-Proceedings of the 6th Petroleum Geology Conference, 3-9. Petroleum Geology Conferences Ltd, published by the Geological Society, London.
244. Fletcher, S. (2006). " Facts: Oil market suffering from investment lull of 1990s, " Oil and Gas Journal, October 16, 2006: 18-20.
245. Horn (2009). www.sourcetoreservoir.com
246. Baker, D. R. (2007). " Big Oil cautious about clean-energy spending, Critics want more from firms earning billions, " staffwriter, San Francisco Chronicle, February 9, 2007
247. Mufson, S. (2007). " Higher Oil Prices Help Exxon Again Set Record Profit, " Washington Post, February 2, 2007
248. Carroll, J. (2009). " Exxon Targets Nine New Projects in 2009 Spending Plan, " Bloomberg.com, March 5, 2009.
249. " World giant oil discoveries seem not to be at an end, " news item, Oil and Gas Journal, November 6, 2006: 33.
250. Barkindo, M. and I. Sandrea (2007). " Undiscovered oil potential still large offWest Africa, " Oil and Gas Journal, 105 (2), January 8, 2007: 30-4.
251. Berman, A. (2005). " Ideas are like stars: The current oil boom, 2001-2005, " Houston Geological Society Bulletin, June 2005
252. Berman, A. (2004). " Oil and gas reserves reduction-A geologist ' s perspective, " Houston Geological Society Bulletin, May 2004
253. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Background.html and IMF study cited there.
254. Ulmishek, G. F. (2003). " Petroleum Geology and Resources of the West Siberian Basin, Russia, " USGS Bulletin 2201-G.
255. US Geological Society (2008). " Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle, " USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
256. World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 1 July 2008; http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf and www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html#Econ
257. International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, 2006, Chapter II, Oil Prices and Global Imbalances, p. 73
258. www.globalfinancialdata.com/articles/Oil_Is_History_Repeating_Itself.doc (2006).
259. Hooker, M. A. (2002). " Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus change in regime, " Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 34 (2), May 2002: 540-61.
260. Walton, D. (2006). " Has oil lost the capacity to shock? " Oxonomics, 1 (2006): 9-12.
261. Kirkemo, H., W. L. Newman, and R. P. Ashley (1997). " Gold," US Geological Survey Report.
262. www.usgs.gov/faq/list_faq_by_category/get_answer.asp?id=89
263. http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2009/mcs2009.pdf. From 1900 through 2007, 131,000 metric tons of gold were mined globally.http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2008-gold.pdf
264. Butterman, W. C. and E. B. Amey III (2005). " Mineral Commodity Profiles-Gold, " USGS Open-File Report 02-303
265. www.eoearth.org/article/Gold
266. Rex Tillerson, in a speech to Boston CEO Club, November 30, 2006, www. edf.org/article.cfm?contentid=5691
267. US DOE (2006). " Undeveloped domestic oil resources: The foundation for increased oil production and a viable domestic oil industry, " prepared for the DOE by Advanced Resources International, February 2006.
268. Sweetnam, G. (2008). " Long-term Global Oil Scenarios: Looking Beyond 2030, " Energy Information Administration, April 7, 2008 Energy Conference, Washington DC. EIA estimates based on I.H.S. Energy, World Energy Council, USGS, Nehring Associates, and EIA analysis.
269. US DOE (February 2006). " Project Facts, Game Changer Improvements Could Dramatically Increase Domestic Oil Recovery Efficiency, " http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/publications/eor_co2/D_-_PROJECT_FACT_GAME_CHANGER.pdf
270. Birol, F., and W. Davie (2001). " Oil Supply Costs and Enhanced Productivity, " Energy Prices and Taxes (4th Quarter 2001), pp. xvii-xxii, http://data.iea.org/ieastore/assets/products/eptnotes/feature/4Q2001B.pdf
271. Maugeri, L. (2004). " Oil: Never Cry Wolf-Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from Over, " Science, 304, May 21, 2004: 1114-15.
272. Meyer, R. F. and E. D. Attanasi (2003). " Heavy Oil and Natural Bitumen-Strategic Petroleum Resources, " USGS fact sheet 70-03 (excludes FSU Siberian extra-heavy oil).
273. Salvador, A. (2005). " Energy: A historical perspective and 21st century forecast , " AAPG Studies in Geology, No. 54.
274. Meyer, R. F. and E. D. Attanasi (2003). " Heavy Oil and Natural Bitumen-Strategic Petroleum Resources, " USGS fact sheet 70-03 (excludes FSU Siberian extra-heavy oil).
275. Caruso, G. (2005). " When will world oil production peak? " Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. June 13, 2005.
276. Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (2004). " Alberta ' s Reserves 2003 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2004-2013, " Statistical Series (ST) 2004-98, Calgary, Alberta, June 2004.
277. Ahlbrandt, T. S., and P. J. McCabe (2002). " Global Petroleum Resources: A View to the Future, " Geotimes, November 2004.
278. Caruso, G. (2005). " When will world oil production peak? " Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 13, 2005.
279. EIA, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/issues.html
280. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, www.capp.ca/default.asp? V_DOC_ID=603
281. Park, G. (2008). " Alberta oil sands frenzy fizzling, " Petroleum News, 13 (51), December 21, 2008: 8
282. " Study sees pause in oil sands output growth, " Oil and Gas Journal, February 16, 2009: 5.
283. Bartis, J. T., T. LaTourrette, L. Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and G. Cecchine (2005). Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues, Rand Corporation, Monograph series.
284. Biglarbigi, K., H. Mohan, M. Carolus, and J. Killen (2009). " Analytic approach estimates oil shale development economics, " Oil and Gas Journal, February 2, 2009: 48-53
285. " Israel presses for oil from shale, " Business Week, July 5, 2006.
286. Dyni, J. R. (2003). " Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits, " Oil Shale, 20 (3): 193-252.
287. EIA (2006). World Energy Outlook.
288. Stranges, A. N. (2003). " Germany ' s Synthetic Fuel Industry 1927-45, " Prepared for Presentation at the AIChE 2003 Spring National Meeting, New Orleans, LA, March 30-April 3, 2003, Historical Development of the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis Process-I.
289. Rahmin, I. I. (2005). " Stranded gas, diesel needs push GTL work, " Oil and Gas Journal, March 14, 2005: 18-28.
290. Jager, B. (2003). " Development of Fischer-Tropsch Reactors, " Prepared for Presentation at the AIChE 2003 Spring National Meeting, New Orleans, LA, March 30-April 3, 2003, Historical Development of the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis Process-II
291. www.sasolchevron.com/fischer-tropsch_conversion.htm
292. Bullis, K. (2006). " Clean Diesel from Coal, " MIT Technology Review, April 19, 2006
293. Goldman, A. S., A. H. Roy, Z. Huang, R. Ahuja, W. Schinski, and M. Brookhart (2006). " Catalytic Alkane Metathesis by Tandem Alkane Dehydrogenation-Olefin Metathesis, " Science, 312 (14), April 2006.
294. Polk Automotive Intelligence, R. L. Polk & Company, 2006.
295. " udolf ' s Revenge, " The Economist, February 9, 2007.
296. US DOE (2008). www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw481.html, and IFP Panorama Technical Report (2005), Road Transport Fuels in Europe: the Explosion of Demand for Diesel Fuel.
297. Rahmin, I. I. (2005). " Stranded gas, diesel needs push GTL work, " Oil and Gas Journal, March 14, 2005: 18-28
298. www.energy.ca.gov/afvs/synthetic_diesel.html
299. Dittrick, P. (2007). " Military testing Fischer-Tropsch Fuels, " Oil and Gas Journal, February 26, 2007: 24-5.
300. Sasol, Inc., Press Release, " Qatar Petroleum and Sasol sign Joint Venture Agreement for the Pioneer GTL Plant in Qatar, " July 10, 2001: www. sasolchevron.com/pr_04.htm
301. Robinson, K. K. and D. F. Tatterson (2007). " Fischer-Tropsch oil-from-coal promising as transportation fuel, " Oil and Gas Journal, February 26, 2007: 20-31.
302. Sasol, Inc., Press Release, " Sasol and Chinese sign landmark coal-to-liquids agreement, " June 22, 2006.
303. Miller, C. L. (March 2007). " Coal Conversion-Pathway to Alternate Fuels, " 2007 EIA Energy Outlook Modeling and Data Conference, Washington DC.
304. Rahmim, I. I. (2008). " Special Report: GTL, CTL finding roles in global energy supply, " Oil and Gas Journal, 106 (12), March 24, 2008
305. " Coal-to-oil project approved, " China Daily, January 11, 2008.
306. EIA (2007). World Energy Outlook
307. " China May Halt Coal-to-Oil Projects, " The New York Times, June 10, 2007.
308. Rahmin, I. I. (2005). " Stranded gas, diesel needs push GTL work, " Oil and Gas Journal, 103 (10), March 14, 2005
309. www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2005/table41.xls
310. Klett, T. R., D. L. Gautier, and T. S. Ahlbrandt (2005). " An evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000, " AAPG Bulletin, 89 (8): 1022-42.
311. Ahlbrandt, T. S. and P. J. McCabe (2002). " Global Petroleum Resources: A View to the Future, " Geotimes, November 2002
312. US Department of Energy (2008). Transportation Energy Data Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Edition 27.
313. US Department of Transportation (2008). Federal Highway Administration, " Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) vs. Mobile Source Air Toxics Emissions, 2000-2020, " www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/vmtems.htm and www.afdc. energy.gov/afdc/data/
314. Lovins, A. B. (2006). " Reinventing the Wheels: The Automotive Efficiency Revolution, " Economic Perspectives, 11 (2), July 2006, http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ites/0706/ijee/lovins.htm
315. US Environmental Protection Agency (2006). " Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 through 2006, " EPA420-S-06-003.
316. Buckingham, D. A. (2006). " Steel stocks in use in automobiles in the United States, " USGS Fact Sheet 3144.
317. Andrews, E. L. (2007). " Senate Adopts an Energy Bill Raising Mileage for Cars, " The New York Times, June 22, 2007. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that, if implemented, this new fuel economy standard will save just under 6 percent of current US oil consumption, or the equivalent of removing 30 million cars from the road.
318. Fairley, P. (2008). " The New CAFE Standards-Fuel standards will likely be achievable but won ' t encourage innovation, " ABC News, January 15, 2008, http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=4136951& page=1
319. An, F. and A. Sauer (2004). " Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World ", Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
320. Data courtesy of Jim Nader, Director, North American Business Development, CSM Worldwide, August, 2007.
321. Foster, J. B. (2000). " Capitalism ' s Environmental Crisis-Is Technology the Answer? " Monthly Review, 52 (7).
322. Sorrell, S. (2009). " Jevons ' Paradox revisited: The evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency, " Energy Policy, 37 (4), April 2009: 1456-69.
323. Bezdek, R. H. and R. M. Wendling (2005). " Fuel Efficiency and the Economy, " American Scientist, 93 (2): 132.
324. Greene, D. L., J. Kahn, and R. Gibson (1999). " Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for US Household Vehicles, " The Energy Journal, 20 (3): 1-31.
325. National Research Council (2002). Effectiveness and Impact of the Corporate and Fuel Economy Standards. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
326. Greening, L. A., D. L. Greene, and C. Difiglio (2000). " Energy efficiency and consumption-the rebound effect-a survey, " Energy Policy, 28: 389-401.
327. Heavenrich, R. M. (2006). " Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006, " US Environmental Protection Agency, July 2006, EPA420-R-06-011.
328. EPA (2007). " Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 through 2007, " US Environmental Protection Agency, September 2007.
329. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2008). www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/CAFE/ImportedCarFleet.htm
330. National Research Council (2002). Effectiveness and Impact of the Corporate and Fuel Economy Standards. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
331. United Nations Environment Programme (2008). " Asia and Pacific Vehicle Standards and Fleets, " www.unep.org/pcfv/PDF/AsiaPacificVehicleMatrix-June2008.pdf
332. " In India, Cheap Car Will Challenge Two-Wheelers, " National Public Radio (NPR), July 8, 2008, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php? storyId=92289904
333. http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crname=India
334. US Department of Energy (2007). " Changes in Vehicles per Capita around the World, " Fact #474, June 18, 2007
335. International Monetary Fund (2005). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/chp4data/fig4_7.csv
336. Kobos, P. H., J. D. Erickson, and T. E. Drennen (2003). " Scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth, " Contemporary Economic Policy, 21 (2): 200-17.
337. CIA World Factbook (2009); based on nominal GDP estimates for 2008.
338. Based on a 100,000 rupee sale price in mid-2009. www.tatamotors.com/our_world/profile.php
339. National Research Council, US National Academy of Engineering (2008). Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States. ISBN 0-309-11141-2, 386 pp.
340. New York City Department of Transportation (2007). www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/safetyrpt07_1.pdf
341. McShane, C. (1994). Down the Asphalt Path: The automobile and the American city. New York: Columbia University Press, 288 pp.
342. Greene, D. L. and P. N. Leiby (2006). " The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE ' s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R & D Programs, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2006/505
343. Greene, D. L. (2008). " Oil Security Metrics Model, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April 2008, www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw522.html
344. Congressional Budget Office (2009). The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019.
345. Greene, D. L. and P. N. Leiby (2006). " The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE ' s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R & D Programs, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2006/505
346. Greene, D. L. (2008). " Oil Security Metrics Model, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April 2008, www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw522.html
347. US Department of Energy (2008). Transportation Energy Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Edition 27.
348. Government Accountability Office (2007). " Crude oils: Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production, " United States Government Accountability Office, GAO-07-283.
349. Searchinger, T., et al. (2008). " Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change, " Science, 319: 1238.
350. Hill, J., S. Polasky, E. Nelson, D. Tilman, H. Huo, L. Ludwig, J. Neumann, H. Zheng, and D. Bonta (2009). " Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline, " Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 106 (6), February 9, 2009: 2077-82.
351. Westcott, P.C. (2007). " U.S. Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector, " Amber Waves, September, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture.
352. Westcott, P. C. (2007). " Ethanol Expansion in the United States: How Will the Agricultural Sector Adjust? " USDA Report, FDS-07D-01, May 2007.
353. Gustafson, C. (2007). " Biofuels Economics: How Many Acres Will Be Needed For Biofuels ? " Part I, News, North Dakota State University Agricultural Communication.
354. Data from www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Feedgrains/FeedGrainsQueriable.aspx and EIA. In 2008, 12,200 million bushels of corn were produced in the US, of which 4,000 million were for corn ethanol. In 2007, 13,100 million bushels of corn were produced in the US, of which 3,000 million were for corn ethanol.
355. Krauss, C. (2009). " Ethanol, Just Recently a Savior, Is Struggling, " The New York Times, February 12, 2009.
356. Kennedy, D. (2007). " The biofuels conundrum, " Science, 315, April 27, 2007.
357. Rae, J. B. (1955). " The Electric Vehicle Company: A Monopoly That Missed, " The Business History Review, 29 (4), December 1955: 298-311
358. Goodsell, C. M. and H. E. Wallace (1901). The Manual of Statistics: Stock Exchange Hand-book, original from the University of Michigan, digitized July 5, 2007.
359. Uhrig, R. E. (2005). " Using plug-in hybrid vehicles to drastically reduce petroleum-based fuel consumption and emissions, " The Bent of Tau Beta Pi, Spring: 13-19.
360. Wohlsen, M. (2008). " Tesla Motors to build electric sedan in California, " The Associated Press, Wednesday, September 17, 2008, (Washington Post)
361. www. teslamotors.com
362. LaMonica, M. (2009). " Tesla Motors CEO: Model S is cheaper than it looks, " CNET News, March 27, 2009.
363. Reuters (2009). " Daimler to expand car battery alliance, " March 14, 2009.
364. Campbell, J. E., D. B. Lobell, and C. B. Field (2009). " Greater Transportation Energy and GHG Offsets From Bioelectricity Than Ethanol, " Science, Scienceexpress Report, May 7, 2009.
365. Kang, B. and G. Ceder (2009). " Battery materials for ultrafast charging and discharging, " Nature, 458, March 12, 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07853
366. Thomson, E. A. (2009). " Re-engineered battery material could lead to rapid recharging of many devices, " MIT News, March 11, 2009.
367. Hadley, S. W. and A. Tsvetkova (2008). " Potential impacts of plug-in electric hybrid vehicles on regional power generation, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2007/150.
368. Uhrig, R. E. (2005). " Using plug-in hybrid vehicles to drastically reduce petroleum-based fuel consumption and emissions, " The Bent of Tau Beta Pi, Spring: 13-19.
369. Kuhn, A. (2009). " Chinese Electric Car Jolts The Competition, " National Public Radio (NPR), January 13, 2009, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php? storyId=99286134
370. Moran, T. (2009). " Dealing With Realities of an Electric-Car Fleet, " The New York Times, January 22, 2009
371. Ewing, J. (2009). " Test-Driving the Electric Mini, " Business Week, March 12, 2009.
372. US Department of Energy (2009). " Carbon Reduction of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, " Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fact #562, March 15, 2009, www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2009_fotw562.html
373. Elgowainy, A., A. Burnham, M. Wang, J. Molburg, and A. Rousseau (2009). " Well-to-Wheels Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Analysis of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, " ANL/ESD/09-2, Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory Of all drivers surveyed, 78 percent travel 40 miles or less round-trip from home to work, as reported in Werber
374. M., M. Fischer, and P. V. Schwartz (2009). " Batteries: Lower cost than gasoline ? " Energy Policy, 37: 2465-8, citing US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, vol. 3, issue 4, October, 2003.
375. Hadley, S. W. and A. Tsvetkova (2008). " Potential impacts of plug-in electric hybrid vehicles on regional power generation, " Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2007/150.
376. Krugman, P. (2009). " Empire of Carbon, " The New York Times, May 14, 2009.
377. Energy Information Administration (2008). International Energy Outlook 2008, Chapter 7, Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html
378. Stone, D. (2008). " Blowing Smoke, Is clean coal technology fact or fiction? " Newsweek Web Exclusive, December 9, 2008, www.newsweek.com/id/173086
379. Zakaria, F. (2008). " Al Gore during an October speech on climate change, " Newsweek, December 8, 2008.
380. US Department of Energy (2009). " Clean Coal Technology Roadmap, " National Energy Technology Laboratory, CURC/EPRI/DOE Consensus Roadmap, www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/coalpower/cctc/ccpi/pubs/CCT-Roadmap.pdf
381. Harrabin, R. (2007). " China building more power plants, " BBC News, 19 June 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6769743.stm
382. Energy Information Administration (2008). World Energy Outlook 2008, Chapter 4, Coal. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html
383. Shuster, E. (2009). " Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, " US DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 5, 2009, www.netl.doe.gov/coal/refshelf/ncp.pdf
384. Rosenthal, E. (2008). " Europe Turns Back to Coal, Raising Climate Fears, " The New York Times, April 23, 2008.
385. PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009). " How managing political instability can improve business performance, " www.pwc.com/extweb/service.nsf/docid/fe92 6b4a5ce358a5852571d8005f0b12#
386. Transparency International (2009). www.transparency.org/about_us
387. Victor, D. G. and S. Eskreis-Winkler (2008). " In the Tank, Making the Most of Strategic Oil Reserves, " Foreign Affairs, 87 (4): 70-83.
388. US Treasury (2009). " US Economic Statistics, " monthly data, May 4, 2009.
389. US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2009). " National Transportation Statistics 2009, Number of US Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances, " www.bts.gov/publications/
390. US Department of Energy (2009). " Cars are growing older, " Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fact #567, April 20, 2009, www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2009_fotw567.html
391. Cuddington, J. T. and D. L. Moss (2001). American Economic Review, 91 (4): 1134-48.
392. www.spe.org/speapp/spe/jpt/1999/09/frontiers_drilling_tech.htm
393. www.greatachievements.org/?id=3677
394. United Nations (2004). " World population to 2300, " United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ST/ESA/SER.A/236, 240 pp.
395. Broder, J. M. (2009). " Obama to Toughen Rules on Emissions and Mileage, " The New York Times, May 18, 2009.