The diabatic and nonlinear aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Implications for its past and future behavior

Geophysical Monograph Series

Volumn 189, Issue , 2010, Pages 79-103

  Sun, De Zheng ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84888037169     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1029/2009GM000865     Document Type: Review

References (71)

1. AchutaRao, K., and K. R. Sperber (2006), ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better?, Clim. Dyn., 27, 1-15.
2. Barsugli, J. J., J. S. Whitaker, A. F. Loughe, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and Z. Toth (1999), Effect of the 1997/98 El Niño on individual largescale weather events, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 1399-1412.
3. Bradley, R. S., M. K. Hughes, and H. F. Diaz (2003), Climate in medieval time, Science, 302, 404-405.
4. Cane, M. A. (2004), The evolution of El Niño, past and future, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 164, 1-10.
5. Cane, M. A., A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Poznyakov, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, and R. Murtugudde (1997), Twentiethcentury sea surface temperature trends, Science, 275, 957-960.
6. Cayan, D. R., K. T. Redmond, and L. G. Riddle (2000), ENSO and hydrological extremes in the western United states, J. Clim., 12, 2881-2893.
7. Chang, P., L. L. Ji, H. Li, and M. Flügel (1996), Chaotic dynamics versus stochastic processes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Physica D, 98, 301-320.
8. Clement, A., R. Seager, M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak (1996), An ocean dynamical thermostat, J. Clim., 9, 2190-2196.
9. Cobb, K. M., C. D. Charles, H. Cheng, and R. L. Edwards (2003), Coral records of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical pacific climate over the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271-276.
10. Conroy, J. L., A. Restrepo, J. T. Overpeck, M. Steinitz-Kannan, J. E. Cole, M. B. Bush, and P. A. Colinvaux (2008), Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, Nat. Geosci., 2, 46-50, doi:10.1038/ngeo390.
11. Crowley, T. J., and T. S. Lowery (2000), How warm was the Medieval Warm Period?, Ambio, 29, 51-54.
12. Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. Timlin (1996), Upper ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991, J. Clim., 9, 1840-1855.
13. Fedorov, A. V., P. S. Dekens, M. McCarthy, A. C. Ravelo, P. B. deMenocal, M. Barreiro, R. C. Pacanowski, and S. G. Philander (2006), The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño), Science, 312, 1485-1489.
14. Gent, P. R., and M. A. Cane (1989), A reduced gravity, primitive equation model of the upper equatorial ocean, J. Comput. Phys., 81, 444-480.
15. Glantz, M. H. (2001), Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society, 252 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
16. Graham, N. E., et al. (2007), Tropical Pacific - Mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times, Clim. Dyn., 83, 241-285.
17. Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, A. Fedorov, M. Collins, C. Wang, A. Capotondi, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and T. Stockdale (2009), Understanding El Niño in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: Progress and challenges, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 325-340.
18. Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar (2003), The perfect ocean for drought, Science, 299, 691-694.
19. Huang, R., and Y. Wu (1989), The Influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 6, 21-32.
20. Huber, M., and R. Caballero (2003), Eocene El Niño: Evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "hothouse," Science, 299, 877-881.
21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by S. Solomon, et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, (Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm).
22. Jin, F.-F. (1996), Tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the Pacific cold tongue, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Science, 274, 76-78.
23. Kessler, W. S. (2002), Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(23), 2125, doi:10.1029/2002GL015924.
24. Kessler, W. S., and R. Kleeman (2000), Rectification of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into the ENSO cycle, J. Clim., 13, 3560-3575.
25. Kleeman, R., and S. B. Power (1994), Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise, Tellus, Ser. A, 46, 529-540.
26. Knutson, T. R., S. Manabe, and D. Gu (1997), Simulated ENSO in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Multidecadal amplitude modulation and CO2 sensitivity, J. Clim., 10, 131-161.
27. Lau, K.-M. (1985), Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1552-1558.
28. Lin, J.-L. (2007), The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis, J. Clim., 20, 4497-4525.
29. Liu, Z., S. G. H. Philander, and R. C. Pacanowski (1994), A GCM study of tropical-subtropical upper-ocean water exchange, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 2606-2623.
30. Lorenz, E. (1963), Deterministic nonperiodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 131-141.
31. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998), Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, doi:10.1038/33859.
32. Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley,M. K. Hughes, D. Schindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326, 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303.
33. McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz (2006), ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth science, Science, 314, 1740-1745.
34. McCreary, J. P., and P. Lu (1994), On the interaction between the subtropical and the equatorial oceans: The subtropical cell, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 466-497.
35. Meehl, G. A., G. W. Branstator, and W. M. Washington (1993), Tropical Pacific interannual variability andCO2 climate change, J. Clim., 6, 42-63.
36. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer (2005), Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 89-93.
37. Moy,C. M., G. O. Seltzer,D. T. Rodbell, and D. M. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420, 162-165.
38. Neale, R. B., J. H. Richter, and M. Jochum (2008), The impact of convection on ENSO: From a delayed oscillator to a series of events, J. Clim., 21, 5904-5924.
39. Neelin, J. D., D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F.-F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. E. Zebiak (1998), ENSO theory, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,261-14,290.
40. Newton, A., R. Thunell, and L. Stott (2006), Climate and hydrographic variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19710, doi:10.1029/2006GL027234.
41. O'Brien, J. J., T. S. Richards, and A. C. Davis (1996), The effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 773-774.
42. Oppo, D.W.,Y. Rosenthal, and B. K. Linsley (2009), 2000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, Nature, 460, 1113-1116.
43. Pedlosky, J. (1987), An inertial theory of the equatorial undercurrent, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 1978-1985.
44. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh (1995), The optimal growth of tropical sea surfacetemperature anomalies, J. Clim.,8,1999-2024.
45. Penland, C., D.-Z. Sun, A. Capotondiand, and D. J. Vimont (2010), Abrief introduction to El Niño and La Niña, in Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., doi:10.1029/2008GM000846, this volume.
46. Rasmusson, E., and T. Carpenter (1982), Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 354-384.
47. Rein, B., A. Lückge, and F. Sirocko (2004), A major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the medieval period, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17211, doi:10.1029/2004GL020161.
48. Rein, B., A. Lückge, L. Reinhardt, F. Sirocko, A. Wolf, and W.-C. Dullo (2005), El Niño variability off Peru during the last 20,000 years, Paleoceanography, 20, PA4003, doi:10.1029/2004PA001099.
49. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert (1996), Quantifying the Southern Oscillation precipitation relationships, J. Clim., 9, 1043-1059.
50. Sachs, J.P.,D. Sachse, R. H. Smittenberg, Z. Zhang, D. S. Battisti, and S. Golubic (2009), Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400-1850, Nat. Geosci., 2(7), 519-525.
51. Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser (1999), Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1056-1070.
52. Sun, D.-Z. (1997), El Niño:Acoupled response to radiative heating?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2031-2034.
53. Sun, D. Z. (2000), Global climate change and El Niño: A theoretical framework, in El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, edited by H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, pp. 443-463, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
54. Sun, D.-Z. (2003), A possible effect of an increase in the warm-pool SSTon the magnitude of El Niño warming, J. Clim., 16, 185-205.
55. Sun, D.-Z. (2007), The Role of ENSO in regulating its background state, in Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences, edited by J. Elsner and A. Tsonis, pp. 537-555, Springer, New York.
56. Sun, D.-Z., and T. Zhang (2006), A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time-mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07710, doi:10.1029/2005GL025296.
57. Sun, D.-Z., T. Zhang, and S.-I. Shin (2004), The effect of subtropical cooling on the amplitude of ENSO: A numerical study, J. Clim., 17, 3786-3798.
58. Sun, D.-Z., et al. (2006), Radiative and dynamical feedbacks over the equatorial cold tongue: Results from nine atmospheric GCMs, J. Clim., 19, 4059-4074.
59. Sun, D.-Z., Y. Yu, and T. Zhang (2009), Tropical water vapor and cloud feedbacks in climate models: A further assessment using coupled simulations, J. Clim., 22, 1287-1304.
60. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin (2002), A nonlinear mechanism for decadal El Niño amplitude changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(1), 1003, doi:10.1029/2001GL013369.
61. Trenberth, K. E., G.W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski (1998), Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,291-14,324.
62. Trouet, V., J. Esper, N. E. Graham, A. Baker, J. D. Scourse, and D. C. Frank (2009), Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 324, 78-80.
63. Tziperman, E. (1997), Mechanisms of seasonal-ENSO interaction, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 61-71.
64. van Oldenborgh, G. J., S.Y. Philip, and M. Collins (2005), El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study, Ocean Sci., 1, 81-95.
65. Vecchi, G. A., A. Clement, and B. J. Soden (2008), Examining the tropical Pacific's response to global warming, Eos Trans. AGU, 89(9), 81.
66. Wang, B., A. Barcilon, and Z. Fang (1999), Stochastic dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 5-23.
67. Wang, B., J. Yang, T. Zhou, and B. Wang (2008), Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian-Australian monsoon variability: Strengthening relationship with ENSO since the late 1970s, J. Clim., 21, 1771-1789.
68. Wara, M.W., A. C. Ravelo, and M. L. Delaney (2005), Permanent El Niño-like conditions during the Pliocene warm period, Science, 309, 758-761.
69. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane (1987), A model El Niño Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
70. Zhang, T., D.-Z. Sun, R. Neal, and P. J. Rasch (2009), An evaluation of ENSO asymmetry in the Community Climate System models: A view from the subsurface, J. Clim., 22, 5933-5961.
71. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti (1997), ENSO-like interdecadal variability, J. Clim., 10, 1004-1020.