Return to the middle Kingdom?: China and Asia in the early twenty-first century

Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics

Volumn , Issue , 2006, Pages 23-47

  Shambaugh, David ^a  

^a GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84887711416     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (100)

1. The "peaceful rise theory" was first put forward by Zheng Bijian at the 2003 Boao Forum;
2. http://www.boaoforum.org.
3. Xu Jian, "A Peaceful Rise: China's Strategic Option," International Studies (March 2004): 1-20.
4. Jane Perlez, "The Charm from Beijing: China Strives to Keep Its Backyard Tranquil," New York Times, October 8, 2003;
5. Jane Perlez, "Asian Leaders Find China a More Cordial Neighbor: Beijing's Soaring Economy Weakens U.S. Sway," New York Times, October 18, 2003;
6. Editorial, "China's More Nuanced Diplomacy," New York Times, October 14, 2003;
7. Philip Pan, "China's Improving Image Challenges U.S. in Asia," Washington Post, November 15, 2003;
8. Michael Vatikiotis and Murray Hiebert, "How China Is Building an Empire," Far Eastern Economic Review, November 20, 2003.
9. Morton Abramowitz and Stephen Bosworth, "Adjusting to the New Asia," Foreign Affairs 82, no. 4 ( July-August 2003): 119-31;
10. David C. Kang, "Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks," International Security 27, no. 4 (Spring 2003): 57-85.
11. Fu Ying, "China and Asia in the New Period," Foreign Affairs Journal 69 (September 2003): 1.
12. A similar version of this article was published as "China and Asia in a New Era," China: An International Journal 1, no. 2 (September 2003): 304-12.
13. S. N. M. Abdi, "China, India to Resume Border Talks Next Week," South China Morning Post, January 6, 2004.
14. Srikanth Kondapalli, "India-China Border Issues and Confidence Building Measures: An Assessment," paper presented at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, November 12, 2003.
15. see Evan Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel, "China's New Diplomacy," Foreign Affairs 82, no. 6 (November-December 2003): 22-35.
16. The volume of official exchanges is far surpassed by a wide range of nonofficial business, tourist, and student exchanges.
17. Data derived from "Table of Overseas Students Accepted by China from Countries Having Diplomatic Ties with China (2003)," Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs 2004 (Beijing: World Affairs Press, 2004), 577-80.
18. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Asia's China Debate: A Special Assessment (Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2003).
19. Conversation with Chinese policy analyst, October 19, 2003, Beijing.
20. For an excellent survey of the period and different regional reactions.
21. Seiichiro Takagi, "The Asia-Pacific Nations: Searching for Leverage," in Making China Policy, ed. Ramon H. Myers, Michel C. Oksenberg, and David Shambaugh (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001), 241-68.
22. Seiichiro Takagi, "Human Rights in Japanese Foreign Policy: Japan's Policy Towards China After Tiananmen," in Human Rights and International Relations in the Asia-Pacific Region, ed. James T. H. Tang (London: Pinter, 1995).
23. This is well chronicled in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge, 1999).
24. Lee Kuan Yew, From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000 (Singapore: Straits Times Press, 2000), chapters 39-40.
25. For excellent analyses of Chinese thinking about such organizations
26. Alastair I. Johnston and Paul Evans, "China's Engagement with Multilateral Security Institutions," in Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power, chapter 10;
27. Jing-dong Yuan, "Regional Institutions and Cooperative Security: Chinese Approaches and Policies," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 13, no. 1 (Autumn 2001): 263-94.
28. Conversation with Foreign Ministry official deeply involved in the ARF and CSCAP processes, November 6, 2003.
29. Interview with Cui Tiankai, June 11, 2004, Beijing.
30. This response was conveyed at high official levels as well as at regional forums. For example, at the 1999 Meeting of the East Asia Vision Group, ASEAN representatives informed their Chinese counterparts that relations between China and ASEAN could develop well if Beijing met two conditions: (1) it did not push ASEAN governments to break their alliances or security arrangements with the United States; and (2) it did not mobilize overseas Chinese (huaqiao) politically.
31. Interview with Chinese representative, October 18, 2003, Beijing.
32. David Finkelstein, China Reconsiders Its National Security: The Great Peace and Development Debate of 1999 (Alexandria, VA: CNA Corporation, 2000).
33. Interviews with various Chinese international relations analysts, 2000-2003.
34. my "New Stability in the U.S.-China Relations: Causes and Consequences," in U.S.-China Relations in the Mid-Term: Scenarios and Implications, ed. Jonathan D. Pollack (Newport, RI: U.S. Naval War College, 2004).
35. Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs, 2003 (Beijing: World Affairs Press, 2003), 12-41;
36. Ba Zongtan, ed., Zhongguo Guojia Anquan Zhanlue Wenti Yanjiu [Research on issues in China's national security strategy] (Beijing: Junshi Kexueyuan Chubanshe, 2003), chapters 2, 3, and 5;
37. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Ya-Tai Zhanluechang [The strategic arena in the Asia-Pacific] (Beijing: Shishi Chubanshe, 2002);
38. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Guoji Zhanlue yu Anquan Xingshi Pinggu [Review of the international strategic and security situation] (Beijing: Shishi Chubanshe, 2004), chapter 7;
39. Zhang Yunling and Sun Shihai, eds., Ya-Tai Lanpishu: Ya-Tai Diqu Fazhan Baogao [Blue Book on the Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific Region Development Report, 2001] (Beijing: Shehui Kexue Wenzhai Chubanshe, 2002).
40. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Guoji Zhanlue yu Anquan Xingxhi Nianjian Pinggu (Beijing: Shishi Chubanshe, 2004).
41. "China's Military Views the World," International Security (Winter 1999-2000): 52-79
42. Tang Xizhong, Liu Shaohua, and Chen Benhong, Zhongguo yu Zhoubian Guojia Guanxi [China and relations with neighboring countries] (Beijing: Zhongguo Shehui Kexue Chubanshe, 2003).
43. The study distinguishes four different dimensions of China's national security: political, economic, cultural, and military. The authors found China to be secure and stable in all but the latter category.
44. "ARF Security Policy Conference-A Concept Paper for Discussion," paper presented by China to the ARF Inter-Sessional Group (ISG), November 20-22, 2003, Beijing.
45. http://www.boaoforum/org.
46. Xiao Chengfeng, "Cong Xin Diquzhuyi Shijiao Zhongguo Duobian Waijiao Zhanlue" [New regionalism and China's multilateral policy strategy], Guoji Wenti Luntan 34 (2004): 80-89.
47. For a useful discussion of China's growing involvement in regional multilateral organizations.
48. "Statement of Susan Shirk" before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 12-13, 2004, available at http://www.uscc.gov.
49. Fu, "China and Asia in the New Period."
50. Louisa Lim, "China and Central Asia Boost Ties," September 24, 2003, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3130852.stm.
51. Interview with U.S. diplomat, October 20, 2003, Beijing.
52. "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea," available at http://www.aseansec.org/13163.htm.
53. "Joint Declaration of ASEAN and China on Cooperation in the Field of Non- Traditional Security Issues," available at http://www.aseansec.org/13185.htm.
54. "Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the People's Republic of China," available at http://www.aseansec.org/13196.htm.
55. "Memorandum of Understanding Between the ASEAN Secretariat and Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China," available at http://www.aseansec.org/13214.htm.
56. "Instrument of Accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia," available at http://www.aseansec.org/15271.htm.
57. "Joint Declaration of the Heads of State/Government of ASEAN and the People's Republic of China on Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity," available at http://www.aseansec.org/15265.htm.
58. "Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the People's Republic of China," available at http://www.aseansec.org/13196.htm.
59. John Wong and Sarah Chan, "China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Shaping Future Economic Relations," Asian Survey (May-June 2003): 507-26.
60. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs 2004, 41.
61. Sun Shangwu, "Asia to Benefit as Ties Improve," China Daily, October 9, 2003.
62. John McBeth, "Taking the Helm," Far Eastern Economic Review, October 16, 2003.
63. Michael Vatikiotis and Murray Hiebert, "China's Tight Embrace," Far Eastern Economic Review, July 17, 2003.
64. "China Offers to Mediate Deadlock in Myanmar," International Herald Tribune, October 22, 2003.
65. Alice D. Ba, "China and ASEAN: Reinvigorating Relations for the 21st Century," Asian Survey ( July-August 2003): 622-47.
66. Amitav Acharya, "China, ASEAN, and the Asian Security Order," CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies Report, August 2003, available at http://www.csis.org/china/index.htm;
67. Amitav Acharya, "China's Charm Offensive in Southeast Asia," International Herald Tribune, November 8-9, 2003.
68. Michael R. J. Vatikiotis, "Catching the Dragon's Tail: China and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century," Contemporary Southeast Asia 25, no. 1 (April 2003): 77.
69. Chen Qiaozhi, ed., Leng Zhan Hou Dongmeng Guojia dui Hua Zhengce Yanjiu [Post-Cold War ASEAN policy towards China] (Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue chubanshe, 2001), chapter 1.
70. The following figures were largely derived from a visit to Seoul in July 2003.
71. my "China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term," Washington Quarterly (Spring 2003): 43-56.
72. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs 2004 (Beijing: Shijie Zhishi chubanshe, 2004), 575.
73. Chinese students in South Korean universities comprise a slightly higher percentage. For example, during the 2003-2004 academic year, 780 of the 1,200 foreign students at Seoul National University came from China. I am grateful to Kyoong-soo Loh for this information.
74. The following derives from a series of meetings in Hanoi during December 2002, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, Vietnamese Com munist Party External Relations Department, Institute of International Relations, and Institute of Chinese Studies at the National Center for Social Sciences and Humanities.
75. "China, India Sign Nine Documents in Beijing," available at http://english.eastday.com/epublish/gb/paper1/class000100004/hwz143868.htm.
76. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs 2004, 41.
77. Ben Dolven and David Murphy, "Riding Out a Storm," Far Eastern Economic Review, October 9, 2003, 40.
78. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's Foreign Affairs 2004, 41.
79. Edward J. Lincoln, "East Asia and China," to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, December 4, 2003, 83, available at http://www.uscc.gov.
80. Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation (MOFTEC), Almanac of China's Foreign Relations and Trade 2002, as quoted in Japan Economic and Trade Research Organization ( JETRO), China data File 2002/2003. I am indebted to Naoko Munakata for these data.
81. Michael Vatikiotis and David Murphy, "Birth of a Trading Empire," Far Eastern Economic Review, March 20, 2003, 28.
82. John Wong and Sarah Chan, "China's Outward Direct Investment: Expanding Worldwide," China: An International Journal 1, no. 2 (September 2003): 287.
83. Fu, "China and Asia in the New Period," 4
84. Joseph Kahn, "China at Korea Talks: Taking Diplomacy Upstage," New York Times, August 30, 2003;
85. Raymond Bonner, "No Progress on Burmese Democracy," International Herald Tribune, September 15, 2003.
86. Trish Saywell, "Powering Asia's Growth," Far Eastern Economic Review, August 2, 2001;
87. "Why Europe Was the Past, the U.S. Is the Present, and a China- Dominated Asia Is the Future of the Global Economy," Financial Times, September 22, 2003.
88. Michael Vatikiotis, "A Too Friendly Embrace," Far Eastern Economic Review, June 17, 2004.
89. My Modernizing China's Military: Progress, Problems & Prospects (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002).
90. "Chief of Staff Wraps Up Tour of Three Asian Countries," available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2003-09/20/con.
91. Hu Jintao, "China's Development Is an Opportunity for Asia," speech at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia 2004 Annual Conference, April 24, 2004, available at www.chinaview.cn.
92. "ARF Security Policy Conference: A Concept Paper for Discussion (Draft)," paper presented by China to the ARF Inter-Sessional Group (ISG), November 20-22, 2003, Beijing.
93. Discussion with Indonesian security expert Jusuf Wanandi, July 2, 2004, Barcelona, Spain. Wanandi has been very involved in the ARF process for many years.
94. Yan Xuetong and Liu Jiangyong, "Solidifying East Asian Security," China Daily, April 14, 2004.
95. Interviews, June 2004, Beijing.
96. Yuan, "China's Engagement with Multilateral Security Institutions."
97. Wu Xinbo, Prospect of Multilateral Security in the Asia-Pacific: A Chinese Perspective (Washington, DC: Sasakawa Peace Foundation, 2000). For a broader assessment of China's participation in international organizations,
98. Wang Yizhou, ed., Construction Within Contradiction (Beijing: China Development Publishing House, 2003).
99. Carolyn W. Pumphrey, ed., The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications (Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2002).
100. Hu, "China's Development is an Opportunity for Asia."