Risk prediction of hospital mortality for adult patients admitted to Australian and New Zealand intensive care units: Development and validation of the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death model

Journal of Critical Care

Volumn 28, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 935-941

  Paul, Eldho ^a   Bailey, Michael ^a   Pilcher, David ^a,b,c  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society   (Australia)

^c ALFRED HOSPITAL   (Australia)

Author keywords

ANZROD; Intensive care; Mortality prediction; SMR

Indexed keywords

ADULT; APACHE; ARTICLE; ARTIFICIAL VENTILATION; AUSTRALIA; CALIBRATION; DATA BASE; ELECTIVE SURGERY; FEMALE; HOSPITAL ADMISSION; HUMAN; INTENSIVE CARE UNIT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MORTALITY; NEW ZEALAND; PREDICTION; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; VALIDATION PROCESS;

ANZROD; INTENSIVE CARE; MORTALITY PREDICTION; SMR;

ADULT; APACHE; AUSTRALIA; CRITICAL ILLNESS; DATABASES, FACTUAL; FEMALE; HEALTH STATUS INDICATORS; HOSPITAL MORTALITY; HUMANS; INTENSIVE CARE UNITS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; NEW ZEALAND; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84887409905     PISSN: 08839441     EISSN: 15578615     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrc.2013.07.058     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Duke G.J., Santamaria J., Shann F., Stow P., Pilcher D., Ernest D., et al. Critical care outcome prediction equation (COPE) for adult intensive care. Crit Care Resusc 2008, 10(1):35-41.
2. Knaus W.A., Zimmerman J.E., Wagner D.P., Draper E.A., Lawrence D.E. APACHE-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation: a physiologically based classification system. Crit Care Med 1981, 9(8):591-597.
3. Knaus W.A., Draper E.A., Wagner D.P., Zimmerman J.E. APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med 1985, 13(10):818-829.
4. Knaus W.A., Wagner D.P., Draper E.A., Zimmerman J.E., Bergner M., Bastos P.G., et al. The APACHE III prognostic system. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults. Chest 1991, 100(6):1619-1636.
5. Zimmerman J.E., Kramer A.A., McNair D.S., Malila F.M. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV: hospital mortality assessment for today's critically ill patients. Crit Care Med 2006, 34(5):1297-1310.
6. Le Gall J.R., Lemeshow S., Saulnier F. A new Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) based on a European/North American multicenter study. JAMA 1993, 270(24):2957-2963.
7. Le Gall J.R., Loirat P., Alperovitch A., Glaser P., Granthil C., Mathieu D., et al. A simplified acute physiology score for ICU patients. Crit Care Med 1984, 12(11):975-977.
8. Metnitz P.G., Moreno R.P., Almeida E., Jordan B., Bauer P., Campos R.A., et al. SAPS 3-from evaluation of the patient to evaluation of the intensive care unit. Part 1: objectives, methods and cohort description. Intensive Care Med 2005, 31(10):1336-1344.
9. Moreno R.P., Metnitz P.G., Almeida E., Jordan B., Bauer P., Campos R.A., et al. SAPS 3-from evaluation of the patient to evaluation of the intensive care unit. Part 2: development of a prognostic model for hospital mortality at ICU admission. Intensive Care Med 2005, 31(10):1345-1355.
10. Higgins T.L., Teres D., Copes W.S., Nathanson B.H., Stark M., Kramer A.A. Assessing contemporary intensive care unit outcome: an updated Mortality Probability Admission Model (MPM0-III). Crit Care Med 2007, 35(3):827-835.
11. Lemeshow S., Klar J., Teres D., Avrunin J.S., Gehlbach S.H., Rapoport J., et al. Mortality probability models for patients in the intensive care unit for 48 or 72 hours: a prospective, multicenter study. Crit Care Med 1994, 22(9):1351-1358.
12. Lemeshow S., Teres D., Klar J., Avrunin J.S., Gehlbach S.H., Rapoport J. Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients. JAMA 1993, 270(20):2478-2486.
13. Lemeshow S., Teres D., Pastides H., Avrunin J.S., Steingrub J.S. A method for predicting survival and mortality of ICU patients using objectively derived weights. Crit Care Med 1985, 13(7):519-525.
14. Bohensky MA, Jolley D, Pilcher DV, Sundararajan V, Evans S, Brand CA: Prognostic models based on administrative data alone inadequately predict the survival outcomes for critically ill patients at 180 days post-hospital discharge. J Crit Care 2012, 27(4):422 e411-421.
15. Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society. Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation Annual Report 2010 - 2011, Melbourne, Australia.
16. Stow P.J., Hart G.K., Higlett T., George C., Herkes R., McWilliam D., et al. Development and implementation of a high-quality clinical database: the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. J Crit Care 2006, 21(2):133-141.
17. Pilcher D.V., Hoffman T., Thomas C., Ernest D., Hart G.K. Risk-adjusted continuous outcome monitoring with an EWMA chart: could it have detected excess mortality among intensive care patients at Bundaberg Base Hospital?. Crit Care Resusc 2010, 12(1):36-41.
18. Paul E., Bailey M., van Lint A., Pilcher D.V. Performance of APACHE III over time in Australia and New Zealand: a retrospective cohort study. Anaesth Intensive Care 2012, 40(6):980-994.
19. Keegan M.T., Gajic O., Afessa B. Severity of illness scoring systems in the intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 2011, 39(1):163-169.
20. Duke G.J., Graco M., Santamaria J., Shann F. Validation of the hospital outcome prediction equation (HOPE) model for monitoring clinical performance. Intern Med J 2009, 39(5):283-289.
21. Harrison D.A., Brady A.R., Parry G.J., Carpenter J.R., Rowan K. Recalibration of risk prediction models in a large multicenter cohort of admissions to adult, general critical care units in the United Kingdom. Crit Care Med 2006, 34(5):1378-1388.
22. Godfrey G., Pilcher D., Hilton A., Bailey M., Hodgson C.L., Bellomo R. Treatment limitations at admission to intensive care units in Australia and New Zealand: prevalence, outcomes, and resource use. Crit Care Med 2012 Jul, 40(7):2082-2089.
23. Hanley J.A., McNeil B.J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology 1982, 143(1):29-36.
24. Hosmer D.W., Lemeshow S. Goodness of fit tests for the multiple logistic regression model. Commun Stat 1980, A9:1043-1069.
25. Zimmerman J.E., Kramer A.A. Outcome prediction in critical care: the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation models. Curr Opin Crit Care 2008, 14(5):491-497.
26. Brier G.W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon Weather Rev 1950, 75:1-3.
27. Armitage P., Berry G., Matthews J. Statistical methods in medical research 2002, Blackwell Science, Malden, Massachusetts. 4th ed.
28. Cox D.R. Two further applications of a model for binary regression. Biometrika 1958, 45:562-565.
29. Reid C., Billah B., Dinh D., Smith J., Skillington P., Yii M., et al. An Australian risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass: the AusSCORE. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2009, 138(4):904-910.
30. Higgins T.L., Kramer A.A., Nathanson B.H., Copes W., Stark M., Teres D. Prospective validation of the intensive care unit admission Mortality Probability Model (MPM0-III). Crit Care Med 2009, 37(5):1619-1623.
31. Beck D.H., Smith G.B., Pappachan J.V., Millar B. External validation of the SAPS II, APACHE II and APACHE III prognostic models in South England: a multicentre study. Intensive Care Med 2003, 29(2):249-256.
32. Brinkman S., Bakhshi-Raiez F., Abu-Hanna A., de Jonge E., Bosman R.J., Peelen L., et al. External validation of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV in Dutch intensive care units and comparison with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II. J Crit Care 2011, 26(1):105e111-108.
33. Nierman D.M., Schechter C.B., Cannon L.M., Meier D.E. Outcome prediction model for very elderly critically ill patients. Crit Care Med 2001, 29(10):1853-1859.
34. Zhu B.P., Lemeshow S., Hosmer D.W., Klar J., Avrunin J., Teres D. Factors affecting the performance of the models in the Mortality Probability Model II system and strategies of customization: a simulation study. Crit Care Med 1996, 24(1):57-63.
35. Mann S.L., Marshall M.R., Woodford B.J., Holt A., Williams A.B. Predictive performance of Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Evaluation releases II to IV: a single New Zealand centre experience. Anaesth Intensive Care 2012, 40(3):479-489.