Recent trends in selected extreme precipitation indices in Senegal - A changepoint approach

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 505, Issue , 2013, Pages 326-334

  Sarr, Mamadou Adama ^a   Zoromé, Malicki ^b   Seidou, Ousmane ^c   Bryant, Christopher Robin ^a   Gachon, Philippe ^d  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement   (Burkina Faso)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA   (Canada)

^d ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Bayesian multiple change point detection procedure; Rainfall indices; Senegal

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; DROUGHT; FOOD SUPPLY;

BAYESIAN CHANGEPOINT DETECTION; DAILY PRECIPITATIONS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; MULTIPLE CHANGES; PRECIPITATION INDICES; PRECIPITATION REGIMES; RAINFALL INDEX; SENEGAL;

RAIN;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; DATA ACQUISITION; FOOD PRODUCTION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; REGIONAL PATTERN;

SENEGAL;

EID: 84886818934     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.032     Document Type: Review

References (46)

1. Bartholy J., Pongrácz R. Global and regional tendencies of extreme indices calculated on the base of daily temperature and precipitation for the 20th century (in Hungarian) Agro-21. Füzetek 2005, 40:70-93.
2. Bartholy J., Pongrácz R. Tendencies of extreme climate indices based on daily recipitation in the Carpathian Basin for the 20th century. Idijárás 2005, 109:1-20.
3. Brandt P., Caniaux G., Bourlès B., Lazar A., Giordani H., Marin F., Funk A., Dengler M., Hormann V. Equatorial upper-ocean dynamics and their interaction with the West African monsoon. Atmospheric Science Letters 2011, 12:24-30.
4. Caniaux G., Giordani H., Redelsperger J.L., Guichard F., Key E., Wade M. Coupling between the Atlantic Cold Tongue and the African Monsoon in boreal Spring and Summer. Journal of Geophysical Research 2011, 116:C04003. 10.1029/2010JC006570.
5. Courel, M.F., 1984. Etude de l'évolution récente des milieux sahéliens à partir des mesures fournies par les satellites. Thèse d'état, Université de Paris I, pp. 407.
6. Descroix L., Mahé G., Lebel T., Favreau G., Galle S., Gautier E., Olivry J.-C., Albergel J., Amogu O., Cappelaere B., Dessouassi R., Diedhiou A., Le Breton E., Mamadou I., Sighomnou D. Spatio-temporal variability of hydrological regimes around the boundaries between Sahelian and Soudanian areas of West Africa: a synthesis. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 375:90-102.
7. Ehsanzadeh E., Adamowski K. Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long term persistence. Hydrological Processes 2010, 24:970-980.
8. Fearnhead P. Exact and efficient inference for multiple changepoint problems. Statistics and Computing 2006, 16:203-213.
9. Frich P., Alexander L.V., Delta-Marta P., Gleason B., Haylock M., Klein Tank A.M.G., Peterson T. Observed coherent change in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 2002, 19:193-212.
10. Herrmann S.M., Compton A., Tucker J. Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Global Environmental Change 2005, 15:394-404.
11. Hubert P., Carbonnel J.P. Approche statistique de l'aridification de l'Afrique de l'ouest. Journal of Hydrology 1987, 95:165-183.
12. Hubert P., Carbonnel J.P., Chaouche A. Segmentation des séries hydrométéorologiques. Application à des séries de précipitations et de débits de l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Journal of Hydrology 1989, 110:349-367.
13. Hubert P., Servat E., Paturel J.E., Kouame B., Bendjoudi H., Carbonnel J.P., Lubes-Niel H. La procédure de segmentation, 10 ans après. Water Resources variability in Africa during the XXth Century. Proc. Abidjan, 98 Conf. 1998, vol. 25:173-197. IAHS Publication.
14. Hubert P., Bader E.J.-C., Bendjoudi H. Un siècle de débits annuels du fleuve Sénégal/One century of Senegal river annual discharges. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2007, 52:68-73.
15. Hulme M. Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998. Global Environmental Change 2001, 11:19-29.
16. Hulme M., Doherty R., Ngara T., New M., Lister D. African climate change: 1900-2100. Climate Research 2001, 17:145-168.
17. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
18. IPCC Special Report, 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Dahe, Q., (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, 594 pp.
19. Issa Lélé M.A., Lamb P.J. Variability of intertropical front (ITF) and rainfall over West African Soudano-Sahel. Journal of Climate 2010, 23:3984-4004.
20. Janicot, S., 1990. Variabilité des précipitations en Afrique de l'Ouest et circulation quasi stationnaire durant une phase de transition climatique. Thèse de doctorat, Paris 6, 600 pp.
21. Karl T.R., Neville N., Ghazi A. CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes: workshop summary. Climatic Change 1999, 42:3-7.
22. Kerr Richard A. Humans and nature duel over the next decade's climate. Science 2007, 317:746-747.
23. Khaliq M.N., Ouarda T.B.M.J., Gachon P. Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: the effect of short- and long-term persistence. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 369:183-197.
24. Khaliq M.N., Ouarda T.B.M.J., Gachon P., Sushama L., St-Hilaire A. Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: a review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 368:117-130.
25. Klein Tank A.M.G., Können G.P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe: 1946-1999. Journal of Climate 2003, 16:3665-3680.
26. Knippertz P., Fink A.H., Schuster R., Trentmann J., Schrage J.M., Yorke C. Ultra-low clouds over the southern West African monsoon region. Geophysical Research Letters 2011, 38. 10.1029/2011GL049278.
27. Lebel T., Ali A. Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007). Journal of Hydrology 2009, 375:52-64.
28. Leroux, M., 1970. La dynamique des précipitations en Afrique Occidentale Publ. Dir. Expl. Mét. ASECNA, Série I, no. 23, Dakar 121 pp.
29. Leroux, M., 1983. Le climat d'Afrique tropicale Thèse de doctorat d'Etat es-lettres, Univ. Dijon, 3 tomes. 1427 pp.
30. Leroux, M., 1996. La dynamique du temps et du climat Paris, Masson, Enseignement des sciences de la terre. 310 pp.
31. Manton M.J., Della-Marta P.M., Haylock M.R., Hennessy K.J., 23 Others Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. International Journal of Climatology 2001, 21:269-284.
32. Moore G.W.K., Holdsworth G., Alverson K. Climate change in the North Pacific region over the past three centuries. Nature 2002, 420:401-403.
33. Mougin E., Hiernaux P., Kergoat L., Grippa M., De Rosnay P., Timouk F., Le Dantec V., Demarez V., Lavenu F., Arjounin M., Lebel T., Soumaguel N., Ceschia E., Mougenot B., Baup F., Frappart Frison F., Gardelle P.L., Gruhier J.C., Jarlan L. The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in mali: relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 375:14-33.
34. Nicholls N., Murray W. Workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes: ashville, NC, USA, 3-6 June 1997-Breakout Group B: precipitation. Climate Change 1999, 42:23-29.
35. Nicholson S.E., Some B., Kane B. The influence of La Nina on African rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 2000, 20:2628-2640.
36. Paeth H., Fink A.H., Pohle S., Keis F., Mächel H., Samini C. Meteorological characteristics and potential causes of the 2007 flood in sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Climatology 2011, 31:1908-1926.
37. Paturel J.E., Servat E., Delattre M.O., Lubes N.H. Climatic variability in humid Africa along the Gulf of Guinea. Part 2: An integrated regional approach. Journal of Hydrology 1997, 191:16-36.
38. Paturel J.E., Servat E., Delattre M.O., Lubes N.H. Variabilité climatique et analyse de séries pluviométriques de longue durée en Afrique de l'Ouest et centrale non sahélienne. Comptes Rendus Académie des Sciences, Paris. 1997, 325:779-782.
39. Peterson, T.C., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., Plummer, N., 2001. Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related reporters 1998-2001. WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071. Genève: OMM, 143 pp.
40. Sagna, P., 2005. Dynamique du climat et son évolution récente dans la partie ouest de l'Afrique de l'occidentale. Thèse de Doctorat d'Etat es lettres. Tome I, II, Dep. Géo, Fac. des Lettres et Sciences humaines, UCAD. 786 pp.
41. Sarr, M.A., 2009. Évolution climatique récente et dynamique de la végétation par l'imagerie satellitaire (Ferlo, Sénégal). Thèse de Doctorat, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3. Lyon: PUL. 400 pp.
42. Seidou O., Ouarda T.B.M.J. Recursion-based multiple change-point detection in multiple linear regression and application to river streamflows. Water Resources Research 2007, 43:18. W07404. 10.1029/2006WR005021.
43. Soltani S., Saboohi R., Yaghmaei L. Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran. Climatic Change 2012, 110:187-213.
44. Toupet C. La crise sahélienne. Revue Géographique de Lyon 1996, 70:181-186.
45. Voortman Roelf L. Recent historical climate change and its effect on land use in the eastern part of West Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 1998, 23:385-391.
46. Xue Y., Ruti P.M. West African monsoon and its modeling. Climate Dynamics 2010, 35:127-142.