A review of continental scale hydrological models and their suitability for drought forecasting in (sub-Saharan) Africa

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

Volumn 66, Issue , 2013, Pages 16-26

  Trambauer, P ^a   Maskey, S ^a   Winsemius, H ^b   Werner, M ^a,b   Uhlenbrook, S ^a,c  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^b DELTARES   (Netherlands)

^c DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Africa; Drought; Hydrological model; Large scale

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; LARGE SCALE; SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS; SURFACE WATER-GROUNDWATER INTERACTION; TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALE; WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS;

CLIMATE MODELS; DROUGHT; GROUNDWATER; SOIL MOISTURE; WATERSHEDS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

DROUGHT; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; FLOODPLAIN; FORECASTING METHOD; GROUNDWATER-SURFACE WATER INTERACTION; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; RIVER BASIN; WATER BUDGET; WETLAND;

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

EID: 84886796119     PISSN: 14747065     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2013.07.003     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Abebe N.A., Ogden F.L., Pradhan N.R. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model: implications for parameter estimation. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 389:301-310.
2. AMS Meteorological drought - policy statement. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997, 78:3.
3. Balsamo G., Beljaars A., Scipal K., Viterbo P., van den Hurk B., Hirschi M., Betts A.K. A revised hydrology for the ecmwf model: verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2009, 10:623-643.
4. Balsamo G., Boussetta S., Dutra E., Beljaars A., Viterbo P., Hurk B. Evolution of land-surface processes in the IFS. ECMWF Newsletter 127 2011, Springer.
5. Beckers, J., Smerdon, B., Wilson, M., 2009. Review of hydrologic models for forest management and climate change applications in British Columbia and Alberta. Forrex Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources, Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada.
6. Bergström, S., 1992. The HBV model: Its structure and applications. SMHI, RH, 4, Norrköping, Sweden.
7. Bergström S., Graham L.P. On the scale problem in hydrological modelling. Journal of Hydrology 1998, 211:253-265.
8. Boussetta S., Balsamo G., Beljaars A., Kral T., Jarlan L. Impact of a satellite-derived Leaf Area Index monthly climatology in a global Numerical Weather Prediction model. International Journal of Remote Sensing 2013, 34:9-10:3520-3542.
9. Candogan Yossef N., van Beek L.P.H., Kwadijk J.C.J., Bierkens M.F.P. Skill assessment of a global hydrological model in reproducing flow extremes. Hydrology and Earth System Science Discuss 2011, 8:3469-3505.
10. CEH, T.C.f.E.H., 2011. GWAVA: Global Water Availability Assessment model. United Kindom.
11. De Roo A.P.J., Wesseling C.G., Van Deursen W.P.A. Physically based river basin modelling within a GIS: the LISFLOOD model. Hydrological Processes 2000, 14:1981-1992.
12. Döll P., Kaspar F., Lehner B. A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation. Journal of Hydrology 2003, 270:105-134.
13. d'Orgeval T., Polcher J., de Rosnay P. Sensitivity of the West African hydrological cycle in ORCHIDEE to infiltration processes. Hydrology and Earth System Science 2008, 12:1387-1401.
14. Fekete B.M., Vörösmarty C.J., Roads J.O., Willmott C.J. Uncertainties in precipitation and their impacts on runoff estimates. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:294-304.
15. Gerten D., Schaphoff S., Haberlandt U., Lucht W., Sitch S. Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology 2004, 286:249-270.
16. Giannini A., Saravanan R., Chang P. Oceanic forcing of sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 2003, 302:1027-1030.
17. Gosling S.N., Arnell N.W. Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes 2010, 25:1129-1145.
18. Haddeland I., Clark D.B., Franssen W., Ludwig F., Voß F., Arnell N.W., Bertrand N., Best M., Folwell S., Gerten D., Gomes S., Gosling S.N., Hagemann S., Hanasaki N., Harding R., Heinke J., Kabat P., Koirala S., Oki T., Polcher J., Stacke T., Viterbo P., Weedon G.P., Yeh.P. Multi-Model Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2011, 12.
19. Hirabayashi Y., Kanae S., Struthers I., Oki T. A 100-year (1901-2000) global retrospective estimation of the terrestrial water cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research 2005, 110:D19101.
20. JRC, 2011. LISFLOOD Model. European Commission - Joint Research Centre - Institute for Environment and Sustainability.
21. Krysanova V., Wechsung F. SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) User Manual 2000, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
22. Krysanova V., Müller-Wohlfeil D.-I., Becker A. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecological Modelling 1998, 106:261-289.
23. Lehner, B., Döll, P., 2004. Global Lakes and Wetlands Database GLWD. GLWD Documentation.
24. Lehner B., Döll P., Alcamo J., Henrichs T., Kaspar F. Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Climatic Change 2006, 75:273-299.
25. Liang X., Lettenmaier D.P., Wood E.F., Burges S.J. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research 1994, 99:414-415.
26. Lin, C., 2010. Soil moisture analysis and seasonal forecast of drought - Final Progress Report. Drought Research Initiative (DRI), Canada.
27. Lindström G., Johansson B., Persson M., Gardelin M., Bergström S. Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology 1997, 201:272-288.
28. Lohmann D., Lettenmaier D.P., Liang X., Wood E.F., Boone A., Chang S., Chen F., Dai Y., Desborough C., Dickinson R.E., Duan Q., Ek M., Gusev Y.M., Habets F., Irannejad P., Koster R., Mitchell K.E., Nasonova O.N., Noilhan J., Schaake J., Schlosser A., Shao Y., Shmakin A.B., Verseghy D., Warrach K., Wetzel P., Xue Y., Yang Z.-L., Zeng Q.-C. The project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 3. Spatial and temporal analysis of water fluxes. Global and Planetary Change 1998, 19:161-179.
29. Loon, A.F.v., Lanen, H.A.J.v., Seibert, J., Torfs, P.J.J.F., 2009. Adaptation of the HBV model for the study of drought propagation in European catchments. EGU General Assembly 2009, Vienna, Austria, 19-24 April, pp. 9589-9589.
30. Love, D., Uhlenbrook, S., van der Zaag, P., 2009. Challenges of regionalising a conceptual model in semi-arid meso-catchments. In: 10th International WATERNET/WARFSA/GWP-SA Symposium, Entebe, Uganda, p. 23.
31. Loveland T.R., Reed B.C., Brown J.F., Ohlen D.O., Zhu Z., Yang L., Merchant J.W. Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1km AVHRR data. Journal of Remote Sensing 2000, 21:1303-1330.
32. Meigh J.R., McKenzie A.A., Sene K.J. A grid-based approach to water scarcity estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa. Water Resources Management 1999, 13:85-115.
33. Melone, F., Barbetta, S., Diomede, T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Tessarolo, A., Verdecchia, M., 2005. Report: Review and selection of hydrological models - Integration of hydrological models and meteorological inputs. RISK-AWARE RISK-Advanced Weather forecast system to Advice on Risk Events and management . http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/riskaware/.
34. Milly P.C.D., Shmakin A.B. Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: The land dynamics (LaD) model. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2002, 3:283-299.
35. Mishra A.K., Singh V.P. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 391:202-216.
36. Mishra V., Cherkauer K.A., Shukla S. Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the Midwestern United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2010, 11:46-68.
37. Moore R. The probability-distributed principle and runoff production at point and basin scales/Le principe de la distribution des probabilités et la production d'écoulement en un point et à l'échelle d'un bassin. Hydrological Sciences Journal 1985, 30:273-297.
38. Ngo-Duc T., Polcher J., Laval K. A 53-year forcing data set for land surface models. Journal of Geophysical Research 2005, 110:D06116.
39. Nijssen B., Lettenmaier D.P., Liang X., Wetzel S.W., Wood E.F. Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins. Water Resources Research 1997, 33:711-724.
40. Nijssen B., O'Donnell G.M., Lettenmaier D.P., Lohmann D., Wood E.F. Predicting the discharge of global rivers. Journal of Climate 2001, 14:3307-3323.
41. Nijssen B., Schnur R., Lettenmaier D.P. Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the variable infiltration capacity land surface model, 1980â€"93. Journal of Climate 2001, 14:1790-1808.
42. Peters E. Propagation of drought through groundwater systems: illustrated in the Pang (UK) and Upper-Guadiana (ES) catchments 2003, Wageningen Universiteit.
43. PROMISE, 2003. Predictability and variability of monsoons, and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change. NERC, CEH Wallingford, Wallingford, UK, p. 8.
44. Ramanathan V., Crutzen P.J., Kiehl J.T., Rosenfeld D. Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle. Science 2001, 294:2119-2124.
45. Schuol J., Abbaspour K.C. Calibration and uncertainty issues of a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to West Africa. Advances in Geosciences 2006, 9:7.
46. Schuol J., Abbaspour K.C., Yang H., Srinivasan R., Zehnder A.J.B. Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resources Research 2008, 44:W07406.
47. Shanahan T.M., Overpeck J.T., Anchukaitis K.J., Beck J.W., Cole J.E., Dettman D.L., Peck J.A., Scholz C.A., King J.W. Atlantic forcing of persistent drought in West Africa. Science 2009, 324:377-380.
48. Sperna Weiland F.C., van Beek L.P.H., Kwadijk J.C.J., Bierkens M.F.P. The ability of a GCM-forced hydrological model to reproduce global discharge variability. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2010, 7:37.
49. Takata K., Emori S., Watanabe T. Development of the minimal advanced treatments of surface interaction and runoff. Global and Planetary Change 2003, 38:209-222.
50. Tallaksen L.M., Van Lanen H.A.J. Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater 2004, Elsevier Science.
51. University of New Hampshire, W.S.A.G., 2009. The WBM Model Family. Water Systems Analysis Group, New Hampshire.
52. van Beek L.P.H., Bierkens M.F.P. The Global Hydrological Model PCR-GLOBWB: Conceptualization, Parameterization and Verification 2009, Utrecht University, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
53. Viterbo P., Beljaars A., Mahfouf J.-F., Teixeira J. The representation of soil moisture freezing and its impact on the stable boundary layer. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 1999, 125:2401-2426.
54. Vörösmarty C.J., Moore B., Grace A.L., Gildea M.P., Melillo J.M., Peterson B.J., Rastetter E.B., Steudler P.A. Continental scale models of water balance and fluvial transport: an application to South America. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 1989, 3:241-265.
55. Voß, F., Alcamo, J., 2008. Technical Report No. 1: First results from intercomparison of surface water availability modules (published on:). WATCH. http://www.eu-watch.org/.
56. Widén-Nilsson E., Halldin S., Xu C.-Y. Global water-balance modelling with WASMOD-M: parameter estimation and regionalisation. Journal of Hydrology 2007, 340:105-118.
57. Widén-Nilsson E., Gong L., Halldin S., Xu C.Y. Model performance and parameter behavior for varying time aggregations and evaluation criteria in the WASMOD-M global water balance model. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:14.
58. Williams A., Funk C. A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation drying eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics 2011, 1-19.
59. Wipfler E.L., Metselaar K., van Dam J.C., Feddes R.A., van Meijgaard E., van Ulft L.H., van den Hurk B., Zwart S.J., Bastiaanssen W.G.M. Seasonal evaluation of the land surface scheme HTESSEL against remote sensing derived energy fluxes of the Transdanubian region in Hungary. Hydrology and Earth System Science 2011, 15:1257-1271.
60. Wisser D., Fekete B.M., Vörösmarty C.J., Schumann A.H. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network-Hydrology (GTN-H). Hydrology and Earth System Science 2010, 14:1-24.
61. Xia Y. Calibration of LaD model in the northeast United States using observed annual streamflow. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2007, 8:1098-1110.
62. Yamazaki D., Kanae S., Kim H., Oki T. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 2011, 47:21.
63. Zeng N. Drought in the Sahel. Science 2003, 302:999-1000.
64. Zhu Y. Ensemble forecast: a new approach to uncertainty and predictability. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005, 22:781-788.