Can the UNAIDS modes of transmission model be improved?: A comparison of the original and revised model projections using data from a setting in west Africa

AIDS

Volumn 27, Issue 16, 2013, Pages 2623-2635

  Prudden, Holly J ^a   Watts, Charlotte H ^a   Vickerman, Peter ^a   Bobrova, Natalia ^a   Heise, Lori ^a   Ogungbemi, Michael K ^b   Momah, Amaka ^c   Blanchard, James F ^c   Foss, Anna M ^a  

^a LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

^b NATIONAL AGENCY FOR THE CONTROL OF AIDS   (Nigeria)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA   (Canada)

Author keywords

HIV epidemic; mathematical modelling; most at risk populations; Nigeria; UNAIDS

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AFRICA; ARTICLE; CONDOM USE; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; FEMALE; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MODEL; NIGERIA; POPULATION SIZE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSTITUTION; TRANSACTIONAL SEX; UNAIDS MODES OF TRANSMISSION MODEL; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; FEMALE; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; NIGERIA; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84885425174     PISSN: 02699370     EISSN: 14735571     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/01.aids.0000432476.22616.2f     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Anderson RM, Garnett GP. Mathematical models of the transmission and control of sexually transmitted diseases. Sex Transm Dis 2000; 27:636-643.
2. Anderson RM, Gupta S, Ng W. The significance of sexual partner contact networks for the transmission dynamics of HIV. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 1990; 3:417-429.
3. Boily MC, Lowndes CM, Vickerman P, Kumaranayake L, Blanchard J, Moses S, et al. Evaluating large-scale HIV prevention interventions: study design for an integrated mathematical modelling approach. Sex Transm Infect 2007; 83:582-589.
4. Regan DG, Wilson DP. Modelling sexually transmitted infections: less is usually more for informing public health policy. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2008; 102:207-208.
5. UNAIDS and The World Bank. New HIV infections by mode of transmission in West Africa: A multicountry analysis. 2010.
6. Pisani E, Garnett GP, Grassly NC, Brown T, Stover J, Hankins C, et al. Back to basics in HIV prevention: focus on exposure. BMJ 2003; 326:1384-1387.
7. UAC/ UNAIDS. Uganda: HIV prevention response and modes of transmission analysis. 2009, Uganda AIDS Commission, UNAIDS.
8. Case KK, Ghys PD, Gouws E, Eaton JW, Borquez A, Stover J, et al. Estimating the sourcesofnew HIV infections: Recommendations for the current Modes of Transmission modelling approach and its use in decision making. Bull World Health Organ 2012.
9. UNAIDS. Modelling the expected short-term distribution of incidence of HIV infections by exposure group. 2007; http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/ contentassets/restore/20090407-modeoftransmission-manual2007-en.pdf. [Accessed on 26 July 2013]
10. Federal Ministry of Health. Results from HIV/STI Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance Survey (IBBSS), 2007.
11. Garnett GP. An introduction to mathematical models in sexually transmitted disease epidemiology. Sex Transm Infect 2002; 78:7-12.
12. Powers KA, Poole C, Pettifor AE, Cohen MS. Rethinking the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2008; 8:553-563.
13. Gray RH, Wawer MJ, Brookmeyer R, Sewankambo NK, Serwadda D, Wabwire-Mangen F, et al. Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda. Lancet 2001; 357: 1149-1153.
14. Mbukpa M, Ekeoba P, Omang P, Nwankwo E, Adebayo S, Adebajo S, et al. HIV modes of transmission in Cross River State, 2010, Cross River State AIDS Control Agency. Department for International Development (DFID); Nigeria 2010.
15. UNAIDS and National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA). United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) Country Progress Report, 2010.
16. National Population Commission (NPC) [Nigeria]andICF Macro, Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2008, 2009: Abuja.
17. Federal Ministry of Health. National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey 2007 (NARHS Plus), Nigeria, 2008: Abuja.
18. Erinosho O, Isiugo-Abanihe U, Joseph R, Dike N. Persistence of risky sexual behaviours and HIV/AIDS: evidence from qualitative data in three Nigerian communities. Afr J Reprod Health 2012; 16:113-123.
19. Owoaje ET, Uchendu OC. Sexual risk behaviour of street youths in south west Nigeria. East Afr J Public Health 2009; 6:274-279.
20. Cooper ML, Barber LL, Zhaoyang R, Talley AE. Motivational pursuits in the context of human sexual relationships. J Pers 2011; 79:1031-1066.
21. Chemaitelly H, Cremin I, Shelton J, Hallett TB, Abu-Raddad LJ. Distinct HIV discordancy patterns by epidemic size in stable sexual partnerships in sub-Saharan Africa. Sex Transm Infect 2012; 88:51-57.
22. UNAIDS. UNAIDS report on the Global AIDS Epidemic 2010. 2010; Available from: http://www.unaids.org/globalreport/Glo-bal-report.htm. [Accessed on 26 July 2013]
23. Moore AM, Biddlecom AE, Zulu EM. Prevalence and meanings of exchange of money or gifts for sex in unmarried adolescent sexual relationships in sub-Saharan Africa. Afr J Reprod Health 2007; 11:44-61.
24. Jewkes R, Dunkle K, Nduna M, Shai NJ. Transactional sex and HIV Incidence in a cohort of young women in the stepping stones trial. AIDS Clin Res 2012; 13:.
25. Gukurume S. Transactional sex and politics of the belly at tertiary educational institutions in the era of HIV and AIDS: a case study of Great Zimbabwe University and Masvingo Polytechnical College. J Sustainable Dev Africa 2011; 13:.
26. Leclerc-Madlala S. Transactional sex and the pursuit of modernity. Soc Dynam 2003; 29:213-233.
27. Stoebenau K, Nixon S, Rubincam C, Willan S, Zembe Y, Tsikoane T, et al. More than just talk: the framing of transac-tional sex and its implications for vulnerability to HIV in Lesotho, Madagascar and South Africa. Globalization Health 2011; 7:34.
28. Federal Ministry of Health. Nigeria Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance Survey.2010.
29. Fazito E, Cuchi P, Mahy M, Brown T. Analysis of duration of risk behaviour for key populations: a literature review. Sex Transm Infect 2012; 88 (Suppl 2):i24-i32.
30. Cross River State HIV Modes of Transmission and Prevention Response Analysis. 2010.