National health expenditure projections, 2012-22: Slow growth until coverage expands and economy improves

Health Affairs

Volumn 32, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 1820-1831

  Cuckler, Gigi A ^a   Sisko, Andrea M ^a   Keehan, Sean P ^a   Smith, Sheila D ^a   Madison, Andrew J ^a   Poisal, John A ^b   Wolfe, Christian J ^a   Lizonitz, Joseph M ^a   Stone, Devin A ^a  

^a CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES   (United States)

^b National Health Statistics Group   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

PRESCRIPTION DRUG;

ARTICLE; CONSUMER; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; GROWTH RATE; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH SERVICE; HOSPITAL SERVICE; HUMAN; MEDICAID; MEDICAL FEE; MEDICARE; PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE; PUBLIC HEALTH; ECONOMIC RECESSION; HEALTH INSURANCE; INSURANCE; TRENDS; UNITED STATES;

ECONOMIC RECESSION; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HUMANS; INSURANCE COVERAGE; INSURANCE, HEALTH; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84885396187     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 15445208     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0721     Document Type: Article

References (22)

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2. Mercer. Employers held health benefit cost growth to 4.1% in 2012, the smallest increase in 15 years [Internet]. New York (NY): Mercer; 2012 Nov 14 [cited 2013 Aug 19]. Available from: http://www.mercer.com/press-releases/1491670
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6. Under the current-law scenario, national health spending growth is projected to be 5.6 percent in 2014. The current-law scenario reflects the impact of an estimated physician payment rate reduction of 24.7 percent, effective January 1, 2014.
7. HealthCare.gov.What is the Health Insurance Marketplace? [Internet]. Washington (DC): Department of Health and Human Services; [cited 2013 Sep 10]. Available from: https://www.healthcare.gov/whatis-the-health-insurance-marketplace/
8. Kaiser Family Foundation. A profile of health insurance exchange enrollees [Internet]. Menlo Park (CA): KFF; 2011 Mar [cited 2013 Aug 19]. Available from: http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/8147.pdf
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11. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Projections of national health expenditures: methodology and model specification [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): CMS; 2011 Jul 28 [cited 2012 May 17]. Available from: http://www.cms.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/projections-methodology.pdf
12. Boards of Trustees. 2013 annual report of the boards of trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): CMS; 2013 May 31 [cited 2013 Jun 18]. Available from: http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/Downloads/TR2013.pdf
13. These projections incorporate estimates of GDP as of June 2013 and do not reflect the comprehensive revisions to GDP that were released in July 2013.
14. Carey MA. Employers to get an extra year to implement health law requirement on coverage. Kaiser Health News [serial on the Internet]. 2013 Jul 2 [cited 2013 Aug 19]. Available from: http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2013/July/02/employer-mandate-delayed.aspx
15. The full effects from a 24.7 percent reduction in physician reimbursement are difficult to predict. No secondary effects of the reduction in physician payment rates are modeled in these projections.
16. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Projected Medicare expenditures under illustrative scenarios with alternative payment updates to Medicare providers. [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): CMS, 2013 May 31. [cited 2013 Jun 18]. Available from http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/Downloads/2013TRAlternativeScenario.pdf
17. Foster RS. Estimated financial effects of the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act," as amended [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; 2010 Apr 22 [cited 2013 Jun 24]. Available from: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Research/ActuarialStudies/downloads/PPACA_2010-04-22.pdf
18. Authors' analysis of Producer Price Index data for North American Industry Classification Codes 6211 and 6215 as of May 2013. See Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer Price Indexes [Internet]. Washington (DC): BLS; [cited 2013 Jun 19]. Available from: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
19. Express Scripts. Drug trend report [Internet]. St. Louis (MO): Express Scripts; 2013 Aug [cited 2013 Sep 10]. Available from: http://www.drugtrendreport.com/docs/downloads/Commercial.pdf
20. For more information, see Table V.B2 in the 2013 trustees report (Note 12).
21. Some states may decide not to expand eligibility for Medicaid, and the projections in this article reflect that possibility. This is an issue of particular uncertainty, since a number of states have not declared their intentions at this time.
22. Out-of-pocket spending consists of direct spending by consumers for health care goods and services, including copayments and deductibles. Enrollee premiums for private health insurance and Medicare are not included in out-of-pocket spending.