Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: Some hints from an Italian case study

Natural Hazards

Volumn 69, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 523-544

  Giordano, Raffaele ^a   Preziosi, Elisabetta ^b   Romano, Emanuele ^b  

^a WATER RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Italy)

^b WATER RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Bayesian belief network; Cognitive map; Drought monitoring and early warning; Drought risk management; Hyogo Framework for Action; Participatory monitoring

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; COGNITION; DROUGHT; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; HAZARD MANAGEMENT; KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEM; MAPPING; MONITORING; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; RISK ASSESSMENT; STAKEHOLDER;

ITALY; LAKE TRASIMENO; PERUGIA; UMBRIA;

EID: 84884908688     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0724-9     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Axelrod R (1976) Structure of decision: the cognitive maps of political elites. Prince-ton University Press, Princeton. Bromley NJ, et al. 2005.
2. Besset G (2006) Facilitating dialogue, learning and participation in natural resource management. In: Besset G (ed) People, land, and water. Participatory development communication for natural resource management. IDRC, Ottawa.
3. Bodesmo M, Pacicco L, Romano B, Ranfa A (2012) The role of environmental and socio-demographic indicators in the analysis of land use changes in a protected area of the Natura 2000 Network: the case study of Lake Trasimeno, Umbria, Central Italy. Environ Monit Assess 184: 831-843. doi: 10. 1007/s10661-011-2004-z.
4. Bromley J, Jackson NA, Clymer OJ, Giacomello OM, Jensen FV (2005) The use of Hugin® to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resources planning. Environ Model Softw 20: 231-242.
5. Castelletti A, Soncini-Sessa R (2007) Bayesian Networks and participatory modelling in water resources management. Environ Model Softw 22: 1075-1088.
6. Checkland P (2001) Soft system methodology. In: Rosenhead J, Mingers J (eds) Rational analysis for a problematic world. Wiley, Chichester.
7. Cundill G, Fabricius C (2009) Monitoring in adaptive co-management: toward a learning based approach. J Environ Manag 90: 3205-3211.
8. Das B (2011) Stakeholders' perception in identification of river bank erosion hazard: a case study. Nat Hazards 58: 905-928.
9. Doyle JK, Ford DN (1998) Mental models concepts for system dynamics research. Syst Dyn Rev 14(1): 3-29.
10. Dragoni W (1998) Some considerations on climatic changes, water resources and water needs in the Italian region south of 43°N. In: Brown N, Issar A (eds) Water, environment and society in times of climatic change. Kluwer, Netherlands.
11. Dragoni W, Evangelisti C (1999) Il problema del lago Trasimeno. Spazio Ambiente 3, Perugia, pp 14-17.
12. Eden C (2004) Analyzing cognitive maps to help structure issues and problems. Eur J Oper Res 159: 673-686.
13. Eden C, Ackermann F (2001) SODA-the principles. In: Rosenhead J, Mingers J (eds) Rational analysis for a problematic world. Wiley, Chichester.
14. EurAqua (2004) Towards a European drought policy. Discussion Document, pp 19. [online] URL: www. euraqua. net.
15. Giardino C, Bresciani M, Villa P, Martinelli A (2010) Application of remote sensing in water resource management: the case study of Lake Trasimeno, Italy. Water Resour Manag 24: 3885-3899. doi: 10. 1007/s11269-010-9639-3.
16. Giordano R, Liersch S (2012) A fuzzy GIS-based system to integrate local and technical knowledge in soil salinity monitoring. Environ Model Softw 36: 49-63.
17. Giordano R, Liersch S, Vurro M, Hirsch D (2010) Integrating local and technical knowledge to support soil salinity monitoring in the Amudarya river basin. J Environ Manag 91: 1718-1729.
18. Giordano R, D'Agostino D, Apollonio C, Lamaddalena N, Vurro M (2013) Bayesian Belief Network to support conflict analysis for groundwater protection: the case of the Apulia Region. J Environ Manag 115: 136-146.
19. Haase D (2011) Participatory modelling of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in flood risk management. Nat Hazards. [online] URL: http://www. springerlink. com/content/dg6p00355108m0w7/.
20. Hamdy A (2004) Drought preparedness and mitigation in the mediterranean region. In: Hamdy A, Trisorio Liuzzi G (eds) Water Management for Drought Mitigation in the Mediterranean. CIHEAM-IAMB, Bari, pp 9-45. Special Session on Water Management for Drought Mitigation in the Mediterranean at the Regional Conference on Arab Water 2004, 2004/04/12-16, Cairo (Egypt).
21. Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. J Environ Manag 88: 1025-1036.
22. Iglesias A, Garrote L, Cancelliere A, Cubillo F, Wilhite DA (eds) (2009) Coping with drought risk in agriculture and water supply systems. In: Drought management and policy development in the mediterranean, series: advances in natural and technological hazards research, vol 26 XVIII, 322 p., ISBN: 978-1-4020-9044-8.
23. Ingram J (2008) Are farmers in England equipped to meet the knowledge challenge of sustainable soil management? An analysis of farmer and advisor views. J Environ Manag 86: 214-228.
24. Lissoni F (2001) Knowledge codification and the geography of innovation: the case of Brescia mechanical cluster. Res Policy 30: 1479-1500.
25. Mackinson S (2001) Integrating local and scientific knowledge: an example in fisheries science. Environ Manag 27: 533-545.
26. Marchant T (1999) Cognitive maps and fuzzy implications. Eur J Oper Res 114: 626-637.
27. Martinelli A (2008) Environmental evaluations of Umbria shallow lakes and support to management plans. 12th international living lakes conference, Castiglion del Lago Italy, Sept 2008, www. globalnature. org.
28. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist K (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale-paper presented at the 8th conference on applied climatology, Am Meteor Soc, Boston, pp 179-184.
29. Mishra AK, Singh V (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391: 202-216. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2010. 07. 012.
30. Mishra AK, Singh V (2011) Drought modeling-a review. J Hydrol 403: 157-175. doi: 10. 1016/j. jhydrol. 2011. 03. 049.
31. Moller H, Berkes F, Lyver PO, Kislalioglu M (2004) Combining science and traditional ecological knowledge: monitoring populations for co-management. Ecol Soc 9(3): 2. [online] URL: http://www. ecologyandsociety. org/vol9/iss3/art2.
32. Montibeller G, Ackermann F, Belton V, Ensslin L (2001) Reasoning maps for decision aid: a method to help integrated problem structuring and exploring of decision alternatives. ORP3, Paris.
33. Nadkarni S, Shenoy PP (2004) A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks. Decis Support Syst 38: 259-281.
34. Nichols T, Berkes F, Jolly D, Snow NB (2004) Climate change and sea ice: local observations from the Canadian Western Arctic. Arctic 57(1): 68-79.
35. Noemdoe S, Jonker L, Swatuk LA (2006) Perceptions of water scarcity: the case of Genadendal and outstations. Phys Chem Earth 31: 771-778.
36. Ovuka M, Lindqvist S (2000) Rainfall variability in Murang'a District, Kenya: meteorological data and farmers' perception. Geografiska Annaler Ser A Phys Geogr 82A(1): 107-119.
37. Pahl-Wostl C (2007) The implication of complexity for integrated resources management. Environ Model Softw 22: 561-569.
38. Pereira LS, Cordery I, Iacovides I (2009) Coping with water scarcity. Springer Science + Business Media.
39. Raymond CM, Fazey I, Reed MS, Stringer LC, Robinson GM, Evely AC (2010) Integrating local and scientific knowledge for environmental management. J Environ Manag 91: 1766-1777.
40. Regione Umbria (2005) Monografia 5. Gli acquiferi nel bacino del lago Trasimeno. Piano di tutela delle acque, Allegati. http://www. arpa. umbria. it/au/pta/monografie/MONOGRAFIA5. pdf.
41. Regione Umbria (2006) Monografia 21. Bilanci idrogeologici delle unità di gestione. Piano di tutela delle acque, Allegati. http://www. arpa. umbria. it/au/pta/monografie/MONOGRAFIA21. pdf.
42. Reid KA, Williams KJH, Paine MS (2011) Hybrid knowledge: place, practice, and knowing in a volunteer ecological restoration project. Ecol Soc 16(3): 19. http://dx. doi. org/10. 5751/ES-04234-160319.
43. Ritzema H, Froebrich J, Raju R, Sreenivas C, Kselik R (2010) Using participatory modelling to compensate for data scarcity in environmental planning: a case study from India. Environ Model Softw 25(11): 1450-1458.
44. Robertson HA, McGee TH (2003) Applying local knowledge: the contribution of oral history to wetland rehabilitation at Kanyapella Basin, Australia. J Environ Manag 69: 275-287.
45. Romano E, Preziosi E (2012) Precipitation pattern analysis in the Tiber River basin (central Italy) using standardized indices. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 3549.
46. Romano E, Petrangeli AB, Preziosi E (2011) Spatial and time analysis of rainfall in the Tiber river basin (Central Italy) in relation to discharge measurements (1920-2010). Proc Environ Sci 7: 258-263. doi: 10. 1016/j. proenv. 2011. 07. 045.
47. Schaffernicht M (2006) Detecting and monitoring change in models. Syst Dyn Rev 22(1): 73-88.
48. Scholz A, Bonzon K, Fujita R, Benjamin N, Woodling N, Black P, Steinback C (2004) Participatory socioeconomic analysis: drawing on fishermen's knowledge for marine protected area planning in California. Marine Policy 28: 335-349.
49. Slegers MFW (2008) If only it would rain: farmers' perceptions of rainfall and drought in semi-arid central Tanzania. J Arid Environ 72: 2106-2123.
50. Sterman JD (1994) Learning in and about complex systems. Syst Dyn Rev 10(2/3): 291-330.
51. Timmerman JG, de Boer J, Hisschemöller M, Mulder WH (2001) Specifying information needs: improving the working methodology. Reg Environ Change 2: 77-84.
52. UNISDR (United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2007) Drought risk reduction framework and practices: contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva, Switzerland, p 213.
53. Vogel C, Moser SC, Kasperson RE, Dabelko GD (2007) Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: pathways, players, and partnerships. Glob Environ Change 17: 349-364.
54. Voinov A, Bousquet F (2010) Modelling with stakeholders. Environ Model Softw 25(11): 1268-1281.
55. Voinov A, Gaddis EJB (2008) Lessons for successful participatory watershed modeling: a perspective from modeling practitioners. Ecol Model 216: 197-207.
56. West CT, Roncoli C, Ouattara F (2008) Local perceptions and regional climate trends on the central plateau of Burkina Faso. Land Degrad Dev 19: 289-304.
57. Whitelaw G, Vaughan H, Craig B, Atkinson D (2003) Establishing the Canadian community monitoring network. Environ Monit Assess 88: 409-418.
58. Wilhite DA, Svoboda MD, Hayes MJ (2007) Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resour Manag 21: 763-767.
59. Zanchettin D, Frank SW, Traverso P, Tomasino M (2008) On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO index. Int J Climatol 28: 995-1006.
60. Zimmermann HJ (1991) Fuzzy sets, decision making, and expert systems. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht.