Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa

Environmental Health Perspectives

Volumn 121, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 1179-1186

  Yamana, Teresa K ^a   Eltahir, Elfatih A B ^a  

^a Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ANOPHELES GAMBIAE; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; HEAT TRANSFER; HUMAN; HYDROLOGY; INCIDENCE; INFECTION; LARVAL DEVELOPMENT; MALARIA; MOSQUITO; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SIMULATION; WATER TEMPERATURE;

AFRICA, WESTERN; CLIMATE CHANGE; HUMANS; MALARIA; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RAIN;

EID: 84884858520     PISSN: 00916765     EISSN: 15529924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1206174     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Bomblies A. 2012. Modeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission. Clim Change 112(3-4):673-685.
2. Bomblies A, Duchemin JB, Eltahir EAB. 2008. Hydrology of malaria: model development and application to a Sahelian village. Water Resour Res 44:W12445, doi:10.1029/2008WR006917.
3. Bomblies A, Duchemin JB, Eltahir EAB. 2009. A mechanistic approach for accurate simulation of village-scale malaria transmission. Malaria J 8(1):223; doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-223.
4. Bomblies A, Eltahir EAB. 2010. Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel. EcoHealth:6(3):426-437.
5. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held R, et al. 2007. Regional climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, et al., eds). Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter11.pdf [accessed 6 September 2013].
6. Coetzee M, Fontenille D. 2004. Advances in the study of Anopheles funestus, a major vector of malaria in Africa. Insect Biochem Mol Biol 34(7):599-605.
7. Cook KH, Vizy EK. 2006. Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: twentieth-and twenty-first-century simulations. J Climate 19(15):3681-3703.
8. Craig MH, Snow RW, le Sueur D. 1999. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today 15(3):105-111; doi:10.1016/S0169-4758(99)01396-4.
9. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, et al. 2011. The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. QJR Meteorol Soc 137(656):553-597; doi:10.1002/qj.828.
10. Depinay JM, Mbogo CM, Killeen G, Knols B, Beier J, Carlson J, et al. 2004. A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. Malar J 3:29; doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-29.
11. Detinova TS. 1962. Age-grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance with special reference to some vectors of malaria. Monogr Ser World Health Organ 47:13-191.
12. De Wit M, Stankiewicz J. 2006. Changes in surface water supply across Africa with predicted climate change. Science 311(5769):1917-1921.
13. Eltahir EAB, Gong C. 1996. Dynamics of wet and dry years in West Africa. J Climate 9(5):1030-1042.
14. Ermert V, Fink AH, Morse AP, Paeth H. 2012. The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa. Environ Health Perspect 120:77-84; doi:10.1289/ehp.1103681.
15. Food and Agriculture Organization. 2009. Harmonized World Soil Database, version 1.1. Available: http://www.fao.org/nr/land/soils/harmonized-world-soil-database/en/ [accessed 31 July 2012].
16. Garrett-Jones C, Grab B. 1964. The assessment of insecticidal impact on the malaria mosquito's vectorial capacity, from data on the proportion of parous females. Bull World Health Organ 31:71-86.
17. Garrett-Jones C, Shidrawi G. 1969. Malaria vectorial capacity of a population of Anopheles gambiae: an exercise in epidemiological entomology. Bull World Health Organ 40(4):531-545.
18. Gianotti RL, Bomblies A, Eltahir EAB. 2009. Hydrologic modeling to screen potential environmental management methods for malaria vector control in Niger. Water Resour Res 45:W08438; doi:10.1029/2008WR007567.
19. Gupta S, Snow RW, Donnelly CA, Marsh K, Newbold C. 1999. Immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria is acquired after one or two infections. Nat Med 5(3):340-343.
20. Hansen M, DeFries R, Townshend JRG, Sohlberg R. 1998. UMD Global Land Cover Classification, 1 Kilometer, Version 1.0, 1981-1994. College Park, MD:University of Maryland, Department of Geography. Available: http://glcf.umd.edu/data/landcover/ [accessed 29 August 2013].
21. Hay SI, Guerra CA, Gething PW, Patil AP, Tatem AJ, Noor AM, et al. 2009. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Med 6(3):e1000048; doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048.
22. Hay SI, Smith DL, Snow RW. 2008. Measuring malaria endemicity from intense to interrupted transmission. Lancet Infect Dis 8(6):369-378.
23. Horsfall WR. 1943. Some responses of the malaria mosquito to light. Ann Entomol Soc Am 36(1):41-45.
24. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A, eds). Geneva:IPCC. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf [accessed 6 September 2013].
25. Irizarry-Ortiz MM, Wang G, Eltahir EAB. 2003. Role of the biosphere in the mid-Holocene climate of West Africa. J Geophys Res 108:4042; doi:10.1029/2001JD000989.
26. Lafferty KD. 2009. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases. Ecology 90(4):888-900.
27. Lobell DB, Burke MB. 2008. Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation. Environ Res Lett 3(3):034007; doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007.
28. Martens P, Kovats R, Nijhof S, De Vries P, Livermore M, Bradley D, et al. 1999. Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Global Environ Change 9:S89-S107.
29. Martens WJ. 1997. Health Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion: An Eco-Epidemiological Modelling Approach. Maastricht, Germany:University of Maastricht, Department of Mathematics.
30. Martens W, Niessen L, Rotmans J, Jetten T, McMichael A. 1995. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect 103:458-464.
31. Martin P, Lefebvre M. 1995. Malaria and climate: sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate. Ambio (Sweden) 24:200-207.
32. Midega JT, Mbogo CM, Mwambi H, Wilson MD, Ojwang G, Mwangangi JM, et al. 2007. Estimating dispersal and survival of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus along the Kenyan coast by using mark-release-recapture methods. J Med Entomol 44(6):923-929.
33. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693-712; doi:10.1002/joc.1181.
34. Montosi E, Manzoni S, Porporato A, Montanari A. 2012. An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:2759-2769.
35. Nicholson SE. 1993. An overview of African rainfall fluctuations of the last decade. J Clim 6(7):1463-1466.
36. Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB. 2009. Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(33):13844-13849.
37. Parham PE, Michael E. 2010. Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission. Environ Health Perspect 118:620-626; doi:10.1289/ehp.0901256.
38. Porphyre T, Bicout D, Sabatier P. 2005. Modelling the abundance of mosquito vectors versus flooding dynamics. Ecol Model 183(2):173-181.
39. Reiter P. 2008. Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart. Malaria J 7(suppl 1):S3; doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-S1-S3.
40. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE. 2000. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289(5485):1763-1766.
41. Service M. 1993. Mosquito Ecology: Field Sampling Methods. 2nd ed. London:Elsevier Applied Science.
42. Shaman J, Stieglitz M, Stark C, Le Blancq S, Cane M. 2002. Using a dynamic hydrology model to predict mosquito abundances in flood and swamp water. Emerg Infect Dis 8(1):6-13.
43. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, et al., eds. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press. Available: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm [accessed 6 September 2013].
44. Tanser FC, Sharp B, le Sueur D. 2003. Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa. Lancet 362(9398):1792-1798.
45. Thomas CJ, Davies G, Dunn CE. 2004. Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa. Trends Parasitol 20(5):216-220.
46. Yamana TK, Eltahir EA. 2010. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS). Malaria J 9:323; doi:10.1186/1475-2875-9-323.
47. Yamana TK, Eltahir EAB. 2011. On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa. Water Resour Res 47(2):W02540; doi:10.1029/2010WR009744.