Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 41, Issue 5-6, 2013, Pages 1333-1344

  Yiou, Pascal ^a   Salameh, Tamara ^a   Drobinski, Philippe ^b   Menut, Laurent ^b   Vautard, Robert ^a   Vrac, Mathieu ^a  

^a LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^b CNRS   (France)

Author keywords

Circulation analogues; Climate reconstructions; North Atlantic variability

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA ASSIMILATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; RECONSTRUCTION; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SURFACE PRESSURE;

EID: 84884704660     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1626-3     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Ansell T, Jones P, Allan R, Lister D, Parker D, Brunet M, Moberg A, Jacobeit J, Brohan P, Rayner N, Aguilar E, Alexandersson H, Barriendos M, Brandsma T, Cox N, Della-Marta P, Drebs A, Founda D, Gerstengarbe F, Hickey K, Jonsson T, Luterbacher J, Nordli O, Oesterle H, Petrakis M, Philipp A, Rodwell M, Saladie O, Sigro J, Slonosky V, Srnec L, Swail V, Garcia-Suarez A, Tuomenvirta H, Wang X, Wanner H, Werner P, Wheeler D, Xoplaki E (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-north Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003. J Clim 19(12): 2717-2742.
2. Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson-Delmotte V, Codron F (2010) Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 37: L20704. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL044613.
3. Chenet al, Fluteau F, Courtillot V (2005) Modelling massive sulphate aerosol pollution, following the large 1783 Laki basaltic eruption. Earth Planet Sci Lett 236(3-4): 721-731.
4. Compo G, Whitaker J, Sardeshmukh P, Matsui N, Allan R, Yin X, Gleason B, Vose R, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel R, Grant A, Groisman P, Jones P, Kruk M, Kruger A, Marshall G, Maugeri M, Mok H, Nordli O, Ross T, Trigo R, Wang X, Woodruff S, Worley S (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137: 1-28.
5. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD (2006) Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. Bull Amer Met Soc 87(2): 175-190.
6. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Schär C (2007) Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys Res Lett 34: L06707. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL029068.
7. Ghil M, Allen M, Dettinger M, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann M, Robertson A, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40(1). doi: 10. 1029/2001RG000092.
8. Gong DY, Drange H, Gao YQ (2007) Reconstruction of northern hemisphere 500hpa geopotential heights back to the late 19th century. Theoret Appl Climato l90(1-2): 83-102.
9. Haken H (1985) Order in chaos. Comput Meth Appl Mech Eng 52(1-3): 635-652.
10. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3): 437-471.
11. Kimoto M, Ghil M (1993) Multiple flow regimes in the Northern-hemisphere winter. 1. Methodology and hemispheric regimes. J Atmos Sci 50(16): 2625-2643.
12. Kondrashov D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred transition paths in a three-level quasigeostrophic model. J Atmos Sci 61(5): 568-587.
13. Lorenz EN (1969) Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J Atmos Sci 26(4): 636-646.
14. Luterbacher J, Rickli R, Tinguely C, Xoplaki E, Schupbach E, Dietrich D, Husler J, Ambuhl M, Pfister C, Beeli P, Dietrich U, Dannecker A, Davies T, Jones P, Slonosky V, Ogilvie A, Maheras P, Kolyva-Machera F, Martin-Vide J, Barriendos M, Alcoforado M, Nunes M, Jonsson T, Glaser R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Philipp A, Beyer U, Kaas E, Schmith T, Barring L, Jonsson P, Racz L, Wanner H (2000) Monthly mean pressure reconstruction for the late maunder minimum period (AD 1675-1715). Int J Climatol 20(10): 1049-1066.
15. Mañé R (1981) On the dimension of the compact invariant sets of certain non-linear maps. In: Rand DA, Young L-S (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence (Lecture Notes in Mathematics), vol 898. Springer, Berlin, pp 230-242.
16. Michelangeli P, Vautard R, Legras B (1995) Weather regimes: recurrence and quasi-stationarity. J Atmos Sci 52(8): 1237-1256.
17. Schenk F, Zorita E (2012) Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for northern europe using analog-upscaling. Clim Past Discuss 8: 819-868.
18. Schmidt A, Ostro B, Carslawa K, Wilsona M, Thordarsond T, Manna G, Simmons A (2011) Excess mortality in europe following a future laki-style icelandic eruption. Proc Nat Acad Sci 108(38): 15710-15715.
19. Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Litschi M, Schaer C (2006) Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443(7108): 205-209.
20. Takens F (1981) Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. In: Rand DA, Young L.-S (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence (Lecture notes in mathematics), vol 898. Springer, Berlin, pp 366-381.
21. Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Bechtold VD, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, VanDe Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131(612): 2961-3012.
22. Vautard R, Yiou P (2009) Control of recent European surface climate change by atmospheric flow. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL040480.
23. Vautard R, Yiou P, Ghil M (1992) Singular-spectrum analysis-a toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Phys D 58(1-4): 95-126.
24. Vautard R, Yiou P, D'Andrea F, de Noblet N, Viovy N, Cassou C, Polcher J, Ciais P, Kageyama M, Fan Y (2007) Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit. Geophys Res Lett 34: L07711. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL028001.
25. Widmann M, Goosse H, van der Schrier G, Schnur R, Barkmeijer J (2010) Using data assimilation to study extratropical northern hemisphere climate over the last millennium. Clim Past 6(5): 627-644.
26. Yiou P, Vautard R, Naveau P, Cassou C (2007) Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe. Geophys Res Lett 34: L21808. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL031981.
27. Zampieri M, D'Andrea F, Vautard R, Ciais P, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Yiou P (2009) Hot European Summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of Mediterranean drought. J Clim 22: 4747-4758.
28. Zorita E, von Storch H (1999) The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim 12: 2474-2489.