Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat" to eliminate HIV epidemics

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

Volumn 10, Issue 5-6, 2013, Pages 1673-1686

  Wagner, Bradley G ^a   Coburn, Brian J ^a   Blower, Sally ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Cost effectiveness; HIV epidemics; Transmission model

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; CD4+ T LYMPHOCYTE; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; CYTOLOGY; ECONOMICS; FEMALE; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; INFECTION CONTROL; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PROBABILITY; RISK; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SOUTH AFRICA; THEORETICAL MODEL; TIME; VIRUS LOAD; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; CD4-POSITIVE T-LYMPHOCYTES; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; FEMALE; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PROBABILITY; RISK; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SOUTH AFRICA; TIME FACTORS; VIRAL LOAD; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84884476574     PISSN: 15471063     EISSN: 15510018     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1673     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. S. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn and R. M. Grant, A tale of two futures: HIV and antiviral therapy in San Francisco, Science, 287 (2000), 650-654. (Pubitemid 30070912)
2. S. Blower, L. Ma, P. Farmer and S. Koenig, Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in resource-poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling drug resistance, Curr. Drug Targets Infect. Disord., 3 (2003), 345-353. (Pubitemid 38016622)
3. S. Blower and H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example, Int. Stat. Rev., 62 (1994), 229-243.
4. M. S. Cohen, T. D. Mastro and W. Cates, Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy, Lancet, 373 (2009), 1077; author reply, 1080-1071.
5. M. S. Cohen, Y. Q. Chen, M. McCauley, T. Gamble, M. C. Hosseinipour, N. Kumarasamy, J. G. Hakim, J. Kumwenda, B. Grinsztejn and J. H. S. Pilotto, et al., Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy, N. Engl. J. Med., 365 (2011), 493-505.
6. M. Das, P. L. Chu, G.-M. Santos, S. Scheer, E. Vittinghoff, W. McFarland and G. N. Colfax, Decreases in community viral load are accompanied by reductions in new HIV infections in San Francisco, PLoS ONE, 5 (2010), e11068.
7. C. W. Dieffenbach and A. S. Fauci, Universal voluntary testing and treatment for prevention of HIV transmission, JAMA, 301 (2009), 2380-2382.
8. O. Diekmann and J. A. P. Heesterbeek, "Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation," Wiley Series in Mathematical and Computational Biology, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, 2000.
9. P. J. Dodd, G. P. Garnett and T. B. Hallett, Examining the promise of HIV elimination by 'test and treat' in hyperendemic settings, AIDS, 24 (2010), 729-735.
10. W. M. El-Sadr, M. Affrunti, T. Gamble and A. Zerbe, Antiretroviral therapy: A promising HIV prevention strategy?, J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr., 55 (2010), S116-121.
11. P. Farmer, F. Léandre, J. S. Mukheriee, M. Claude, P. Nevil, M. C. Smith-Fawzi, S. P. Koenig, A. Castro, M. C. Becerra, J. Sachs, et al., Community-based approaches to HIV treatment in resource-poor settings, Lancet, 358 (2001), 404-409. (Pubitemid 32739107)
12. E. M. Gardner, M. P. McLees, J. F. Steiner, C. del Rio and W. J. Burman, The spectrum of engagement in HIV care and its relevance to test-and-treat strategies for prevention of HIV infection, Clin. Infect. Dis., 52 (2011), 793-800.
13. G. P. Garnett and R. F. Baggaley, Treating our way out of the HIV pandemic: Could we, would we, should we?, Lancet, 373 (2009), 9-11.
14. R. M. Granich, C. F. Gilks, C. Dye, K. M. De Cock and B. G. Williams, Universal volun-tary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: A mathematical model, Lancet, 373 (2009), 48-57.
15. R. Granich, J. G. Kahn, R. Bennett, C. B. Holmes, N. Garg, C. Serenata, M. L. Sabin, C. Makhlouf-Obermeyer, C. De Filippo Mack and P. Williams, et al., Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: Estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e30216.
16. R. H. Gray, M. J. Wawer, R. Brookmeyer, N. K. Sewankambo, D. Serwadda, F. Wabwire-Mangen, T. Lutalo, X. Li, T. vanCott, T. C. Quinn and R. P. Team, Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda, Lancet, 357 (2001), 1149-1153. (Pubitemid 32378686)
17. H. W. Hethcote and J. A. Yorke, "Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control," Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 56, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1984.
18. V. D. Lima, K. Johnston, R. S. Hogg, A. R. Levy, P. R. Harrigan, A. Anema and J. S. G. Montaner, Expanded access to highly active antiretroviral therapy: A potentially powerful strategy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, J. Infect. Dis., 198 (2008), 59-67. (Pubitemid 351920290)
19. E. J. Mills, C. Bakanda, J. Birungi, K. Chan, N. Ford, C. L. Cooper, J. B. Nachega, M. Dybul and R. S. Hogg, Life expectancy of persons receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: A cohort analysis from Uganda, Ann. Intern. Med., 155 (2011), 209-216.
20. J. S. G. Montaner, R. Hogg, E. Wood, T. Kerr, M. Tyndall, A. R. Levy and P. R. Harrigan, The case for expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy to curb the growth of the HIV epidemic, Lancet, 368 (2006), 531-536. (Pubitemid 44142776)
21. National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2006, (2007).
22. National Department of Health, The national antenatal sentinel HIV and syphilis prevalence survey, South Africa, 2010, (2011).
23. P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48. (Pubitemid 35304346)
24. J. X. Velasco-Hernandez, H. B. Gershengorn and S. M. Blower, Could widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics?, Lancet Infect. Dis., 2 (2002), 487-493. (Pubitemid 34826854)
25. B. G. Wagner, J. S. Kahn and S. Blower, Should we try to eliminate HIV epidemics by using a ̀Test and Treat' strategy?, AIDS, 24 (2010), 775-776.
26. B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Costs of eliminating HIV in South Africa have been underesti-mated, Lancet, 376 (2010), 953-954.
27. B. G. Wagner and S. Blower, Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal ̀test and treat': Transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs, PLoS ONE, 7 (2012), e41212.