Inferring extinction risks from sighting records

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 338, Issue , 2013, Pages 16-22

  Thompson, C J ^a   Lee, T E ^a,b   Stone, L ^b,c   McCarthy, M A ^a   Burgman, M A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^b TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY   (Israel)

^c RMIT UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Annealed; Bayesian methods; Extinction; Quenched; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ESTIMATION METHOD; EXTINCTION RISK; PINNIPED; PROBABILITY; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SPECIES CONSERVATION;

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; ECOLOGICAL PROCEDURES; MONACHUS TROPICALIS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; SEAL; SIGHTING; SPECIES EXTINCTION;

ANNEALED; BAYESIAN METHODS; EXTINCTION; QUENCHED; UNCERTAINTY;

ANIMALS; BAYES THEOREM; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; RECORDS AS TOPIC; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEALS, EARLESS; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84884263657     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.08.023     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Amit D.J., Gutfreund H., Sompolinksy H. Spin-glass models of neural networks. Physical Review A 1985, 32:1007-1018.
2. Binder K. Ising model. In: Hazewinkel, Michiel, (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Mathematics 2001, Springer.
3. Brout R. Statistical mechanical theory of a random ferromagnetic system. Physical Review 1959, 115:824-835.
4. Burgman M.A., Grimson R.C., Ferson S. Inferring threat from scientific collections. Conservation Biology 1995, 4:923-928.
5. Commonwealth of Australia, 1996. State of Environment Report. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
6. Efron B. Bayes' theorem in the 21st century. Science 2013, 340:1177-1178.
7. Flannery T., Schouten P. A Gap in Nature. Discovering the World's Extinct Animals 2001, Text Publishing, Melbourne.
8. Hopfield J.J. Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 1982, 79:2554-2558.
9. IUCN, 2002. The IUCN Red List of threatened species. Summary statistics 〈〉. http://www.redlist.org.
10. Keith D.A., Burgman M.A. The Lazarus effect. can the dynamics of extinct species lists tell us anything about the status of biodiversity?. Biological Conservation 2004, 117:41-48.
11. Lee, T.E., McCarthy, M.A., Wintle, B., Butchart, S.H.M., Bode, M., Roberts, D.L., Burgman, M.A., 2013. Inferring extinction from sighting records of variable reliability. Journal of Applied Ecology . doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12144.
12. May R.M., Lawton J.H., Stork N.E. Assessing Extinction Rates 1995, 1-24. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
13. McCarthy M.A. Identifying declining and threatened species with museum data. Biological Conservation 1997, 83:9-17.
14. Mezard M., Parisi G., Virasoro M.A. Spin Glass Theory and Beyond 1987, World Scientific, Singapore.
15. Rout T.M., Salomon Y., McCarthy M.A. Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species. Journal of Applied Ecology 2009, 46:110-117.
16. Solow A. Inferring extinction from sighting data. Ecology 1993, 74:962-964.
17. Solow A., Roberts D.L. A nonparametric test for extinction based on a sighting record. Ecology 2003, 84:1329-1332.
18. Solow A., Smith W., Burgman M.A., Rout T., Wintle B., Roberts D. Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the ivory-billed woodpecker. Conservation Biology 2011, 26:1-5.
19. Thompson C.J. Random Spin Systems 1983, Department of Mathematics, University of Melbourne.
20. Wang J.S., Selke W., Dotsenko V.S., Andreichenko V.B. The critical behaviour of the two-dimensional dilute Ising magnet. Physics A 1990, 164:221-239.