Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors

Risk Analysis

Volumn 33, Issue 9, 2013, Pages 1620-1635

  Santos, Joost R ^a   May, Larissa ^b   Haimar, Amine El ^a  

^a The George Washington University   (United States)

^b GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Critical workforce; Disaster preparedness; Input output model; Pandemic; Prioritization

Indexed keywords

CRITICAL WORKFORCE; DISASTER PREPAREDNESS; INPUT OUTPUT MODEL; PANDEMIC; PRIORITIZATION;

DISASTER PREVENTION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; LOSSES; OCCUPATIONAL RISKS;

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS;

DISASTER; DISEASE SEVERITY; EPIDEMIC; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; HEALTH RISK; INFLUENZA; INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS; PRIORITIZATION; RISK FACTOR; WORKPLACE;

ABSENTEEISM; ARTICLE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CRITICAL WORKFORCE; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; DISASTER PLANNING; DISASTER PREPAREDNESS; ECONOMICS; EMPLOYMENT; EPIDEMIC; GEOGRAPHY; GOVERNMENT; HUMAN; INFLUENZA; INFLUENZA VIRUS A H1N1; INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL; METHODOLOGY; ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT; PANDEMIC; PRIORITIZATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL;

CRITICAL WORKFORCE; DISASTER PREPAREDNESS; INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL; PANDEMIC; PRIORITIZATION;

ABSENTEEISM; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; DISASTER PLANNING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EMPLOYMENT; EPIDEMICS; FEDERAL GOVERNMENT; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H1N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, ECONOMIC; PRIVATE SECTOR; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84884202780     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12002     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Stilianankis NI, Drossinos Y. Dynamics of infectious disease transmission by inhalable respiratory droplets. Journal of Royal Society Interface, 2010; 7(50):1355-1366.
2. Chao DL, Halloran ME, Obenchain CJ, Longini IM. FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model. Plos Computational Biology, 2010; 6(1):1-8.
3. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature, 2006; 442(27 July 2006): 448-452.
4. Dhankhar P, Zhang X, Meltzer MI, Bridges CB. FluWorkLoss 1.0: A Manual to Assist State and Local Public Health Officials in Estimating the Impact of an Influenza Pandemic on Work Day Loss. Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2006.
5. Thanner MH, Links JM, Meltzer MI, Scheulen JJ, Kelen GD. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic. American Journal of Disaster Medicine, 2011; 6(2): 89-105.
6. World Health Organization. H1N1 in post-pandemic period, 2010. Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2010/h1n1_vpc_20100810/en/index.html, Accessed on October 5, 2010.
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). CDC estimates of 2009 influenza cases, hospitalizations and deaths, April-December 12, 2009, 2010. Available at: http://cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm, Accessed January 15, 2010.
8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Update: Influenza activity-United States, 2009-10 season. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), 59(29):901-908. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5929a2.htm, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
9. Halder N, Kelso JK, Milne GJ. Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. BMC Public Health, 2010; 10(168):1-14.
10. Schanzer DL, Zheng H, Gilmore J. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian labour force survey. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2011; 11(90):1-9.
11. Leontief W. Quantitative input and output relations in the economic system of the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1936; 18(3): 105-125.
12. Miller RE, Blair PD. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: University Press, 2009.
13. Jiang P, Haimes YY. Risk management for Leontief-based interdependent systems. Risk Analysis, 2004; 24(5):1215-1229.
14. The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP). Regional disaster resilience: A guide for developing an action plan, Document #19458. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2006.
15. Isard W. Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction to Regional Science. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1960.
16. National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). Report 456: Guidebook for Assessing the Social and Economic Effects of Transportation Projects. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2001.
17. Dietzenbacher E, Lahr ML. Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
18. US Census Bureau, Journey to Work and Place of Work, 2009. Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/journey.html, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
19. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Commodity Flow Survey, 2008. Available at: http://www.bts.gov/programs/commodity_flow_survey/, Accessed on February 16, 2011.
20. Ruiz-Juri N, Kockelman KM. Evaluation of the trans-Texas corridor proposal: Application and enhancements of the random-utility-based multiregional input-output model. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2006; 132(7): 531-539.
21. Minnesota IMPLAN Group. Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN): The IMPLAN System, July 20, 2010. Available at: http://www.implan.com/, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
22. US Department of Commerce. Regional Multipliers: A User Handbook for the Regional Input-Output Modeling System. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, March 1997
23. Rose A, Liao S. Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters: A computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. Journal of Regional Science, 2005; 45: 75-112.
24. Haimes YY, Jiang P. Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2001; 7(1): 1-12.
25. Santos JR. Inoperability input-output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems. Systems Engineering, 2006; 9(1): 20-34.
26. Santos JR. Inoperability input-output model (IIM) with multiple probabilistic sector inputs. Journal of Industrial Management and Optimization, 2008; 4(3): 489-510.
27. Anderson CW, Santos JR, Haimes YY. A risk-based input-output methodology for measuring the effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout. Economic Systems Research, 2007; 19(2):183-204.
28. Barker KA, Santos JR. Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model. International Journal of Production Economics, 2010; 126(1):130-143
29. Haggerty M, Santos JR, Haimes YY. A transportation-based framework for deriving perturbations to the inoperability input-output model. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2008; 14(4): 293-304.
30. Crowther KG, Haimes YY, Taub G. Systemic valuation of strategic preparedness with illustrations from Hurricane Katrina. Risk Analysis, 2007; 27(5):1345-1364.
31. Santos JR, Barker K, Zelinke P. Sequential decision-making in interdependent sectors with multiobjective inoperability decision trees. Economic Systems Research, 2008; 20(1): 29-56.
32. Santos JR, Haimes YY, Lian C. A framework for linking cyber security metrics to the modeling of macroeconomic interdependencies. Risk Analysis, 2007; 27(4): 1283-1297.
33. Wei H, Dong M, Sun S. Inoperability input-output modeling (IIM) of disruptions to supply chain networks. Systems Engineering, 2009; 13(4): 324-339.
34. Santos JR, Haimes YY. Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures. Risk Analysis, 2004; 24(6):1437-1451.
35. Holling C. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973; 4: 1-23.
36. Perrings C. Resilience and sustainability. Pp. 319-341 in Folmer H, Gabel HL, Gerking S, Rose A (eds). Frontiers of Environmental Economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing; 2001.
37. Rose A. Economic Resilience to Disasters: Community and Regional Resilience Institute (CARRI) Research Report 8. Oakridge, TN: CARRI Institute, 2009.
38. Lian C, Haimes YY. Managing the risk of terrorism to interdependent infrastructure systems through the dynamic inoperability input-output model. Systems Engineering, 2006; 9(3):241-258.
39. Barker KA, Haimes YY. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009; 94(4):819-829.
40. Lian C, Santos JR, Haimes YY. Extreme risk analysis of interdependent economic and infrastructure sectors. Risk Analysis, an International Journal, 2007; 27(4):1053-1064.
41. Haimes YY, Horowitz BM, Lambert JH, Santos JR, Lian C, Crowther KG. Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2005; 11(2): 67-79.
42. Arnold R, De Sa J, Gronniger T, Percy A, Somers J. A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, July 27, 2006.
43. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Local Area Personal Income, 2008. Available at: http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=5, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
44. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). OECD Manual: Measuring Productivity; Measurement of Aggregate and Industry-Level Productivity Growth, 2001. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/59/29/2352458.pdf, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
45. Chowell A, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman J.M. Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2006; 241(2):193-204.
46. Meltzer MI, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: Priorities for intervention. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 1999; 5(5): 659-671.
47. Resurreccion JZ, Santos JR. Multi-objective prioritization methodology and decision support system for evaluating inventory enhancement strategies for disrupted interdependent sectors. Risk Analysis, 2012; 32(10): 1673-1692.
48. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Past Weekly Surveillance Reports. 2008-2009, 2011. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/pastreports.htm. Accessed on February 16, 2012.
49. Smith RD, Keogh-Brown MR, Barnett T. Estimating the impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK. Social Science and Medicine, 2011; 73(2): 235-244.
50. Xue Y, Kristiansen IS, de Blasio BF. Modeling the cost of influenza: The impact of missing costs of unreported complications and sick leave. BMC Public Health, 2010; 10(724): 1-11.
51. Keogh-Brown MR, Smith RD, Edmunds JW, Beutels P. The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: Estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. European Journal of Health Economics, 2010; 11(6), 543-554.
52. Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley PC, Zimmerman RK, Wheaton WD, Zimmer SM, Grefenstette JJ, Assi TM, Furphy TJ, Wagener DK, Burke DS. A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2010; 38(3):247-257.
53. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product, 2009. Available at: http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=1, Accessed on February 16, 2012.
54. Enstone JE, Myles PR, Openshaw PJM, Gadd EM, Lim WS, Semple MS, Read RC, Taylor BL, McMenamin J, Armstrong C, Bannister B, Nicholson KG, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS. Nosocomial pandemic (H1N1) 2009, United Kingdom, 2009-2010. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2011; 17(4):1-14.
55. Chen WC, Huang AS, Chuang JH, Chiu CC, Kuo HS. Social and economic impact of school closure resulting from pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Journal of Infection, 2011; 62(3):200-203.
56. Johnson AJ, Moore ZS, Edelson PJ, Kinnane L, Davies M, Shay DK, Balish A, McCarron M, Blanton L, Finelli L, Averhoff F, Bresee J, Engel J, Fiore A. Household responses to school closure resulting from outbreak of influenza B. North Carolina. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2008; 14(7):1024-1030.
57. Sander B, Nizam A, Garrison LP, Postma MJ, Halloran ME, Longini IM. Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model. Value Health, 2009; 12(2), 226-233.
58. May L, Katz R, Johnston L, Sanza M, Petinaux B. Assessing physicians' in training attitudes and behaviors during the 2009 H1N1 influenza season: A cross-sectional survey of medical students and residents in an urban academic setting. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 2010; 4(5):267-275.
59. Gershon RR, Magda LA, Qureshi KA, Riley HE, Scanlon E, Carney MT, Richards RJ, Sherman MF. Factors associated with the ability and willingness of essential workers to report to duty during a pandemic. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2010; 52(10):995-1003.
60. Sadique MZ, Adams EJ, Edmunds WJ. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic. BMC Public Health, 2008; 8:135.
61. Torá-Rocamora I, Delclos GL, Martínez JM, Jardí J, Alberti C, Manzanera R, Yasui Y, Clèries R, Tobías A, Benavides FG. Occupational health impact of the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic: Surveillance of sickness absence. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2011 (online publication ahead of print).
62. Poletti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics. Plos One, 2011; 7(6):1-7.
63. Postma MJ, Milne G, Nelson EA, Pyensen B, Basili M, Coker R, Oxford J, Garrison LP. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: Modeling the risks and health-economic impacts. Expert Review of Anti-Infective Therapy, 2010; 8(12): 1431-1439.