Expert knowledge as a basis for landscape ecological predictive models

Predictive Species and Habitat Modeling in Landscape Ecology: Concepts and Applications

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages 229-248

  Drew, C Ashton ^a   Perera, Ajith H ^b  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84883640931     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-7390-0_12     Document Type: Chapter

References (77)

1. Al-Awadhi SA, Garthwaite PH (2006) Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions. Comp Stat 21:121-140.
2. Anderson JL (1998) Embracing uncertainty: the interface of Bayesian statistics and cognitive psychology. Ecol Soc 2 [online] http://www.consecol. org/vol2/iss1/art2.
3. Aspinall W (2010) A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463:294-295.
4. Ayyub BM (2001) Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida.
5. Baddeley MC, Curtis A, Wood RA (2004) An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic judgements: elicitation of knowledge, cognitive bias and herding. In: Curtis A, Wood R (eds) Geological prior information: informing science and engineering. Special Publications 239, Geological Society, London.
6. Balmford A, Cowling M (2006) Fusion or failure? The future of conservation. Conserv Biol 20:692-695.
7. Bashari H, Smith C, Bosch OJH (2009) Developing decision support tools for rangeland management by combining state and transition models and Bayesian belief networks. Agri Sys 99:23-34.
8. Battisti C, Luiselli L, Pantano D, Teofili C (2008) On threats analysis approach applied to a Mediterranean remnant wetland: is the assessment of human-induced threats related to different level of expertise of respondents? Biodiv Conserv 17:1529-1542.
9. Beier P, Noss RF (1998) Do habitat corridors provide connectivity? Conserv Biol 12:1241-1252.
10. Bissonette JA, Storch I (eds) (2003) Landscape ecology and resource management: linking theory with practice. Island Press, Washington DC.
11. Brown JH, Stevens GC, Kaufman DM (1996) The geographic range: size, shape, boundaries, and internal structure. Ann Rev Ecol Syst 27:597-623.
12. Cleaves DA (1994) Assessing uncertainty in expert judgments about natural resources. General Technical Report so-1 10, USDA Forest Service, Southern Forest Experimental Station, New Orleans, Louisiana.
13. Cooke RM (1991) Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford University Press, New York.
14. Coulson RN, Folse LJ, Loh DK (1987) Artificial intelligence and natural resource management. Science 237:262-267.
15. Davis JLD (2000) Changes in tidepool fish assemblages on two scales of environmental variation: seasonal and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Limnol Oceanogr 45:1368-1379.
16. Denham R, Mengersen KL (2007) Geographically assisted elicitation of expert opinion for regression models. Bayes Anal 2:99-136.
17. Doyon F, Sturtevant BR, Papaik M, Fall A, Messier C, Kneeshaw D (2010) A comparison of landscape dynamics derived from expert knowledge-based succession models and processbased landscape models. In: Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) Expert knowledge and landscape ecological applications. Springer, New York.
18. Drescher M, Perera AH (2010) Comparing two steps of forest cover change knowledge used in forest landscape management planning. J Environ Plan Manag. DOI:10.1080.109640561003727110.
19. Drescher M, Perera AH, Buse LJ, Ride K, Vasiliauskas S (2006) Identifying uncertainty in practitioner knowledge of boreal forest succession in Ontario through a workshop approach. Forest Research Report 165, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Ontario Forest Research Institute, Canada.
20. Drescher M, Perera AH, Buse LJ, Ride K, Vasiliauskas S (2008) Uncertainty in expert knowledge of forest succession: a case study from boreal Ontario. Forest Chron 84:194-209.
21. Drescher M, Buse LJ, Perera AH, Ouellette MR (in press) Eliciting and formalizing expert knowledge of forest succession supported by a software tool. In: Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) Expert knowledge and landscape ecological applications. Springer, New York.
22. Drew CA, Collazo JC (in press) Expert knowledge as a foundation for management of rare or secretive species and their habitat. In: Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) Expert knowledge and landscape ecological applications. Springer, New York.
23. Elith J, Burgman MA, Regan HM (2002) Mapping epistemic uncertainties and vague concepts in predictions of species distribution. Ecol Model 157:313-329.
24. Garthwaite PH, Kadane JB, O'Hagan A (2005) Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J Am Stat Assoc 100:680-701.
25. Geneletti D (2005) Formalising expert opinion through multi-attribute value functions: an application in landscape ecology. J Environ Manag 76:255-262.
26. Giles Jr, RH (1998) Natural resource management tomorrow: four currents. Wild Soc Bull 26:51-55.
27. Gilchrist G, Mallory M, Merkel F (2005) Can local ecological knowledge contribute to wildlife management? Case studies of migratory birds. Ecol Soc 10 [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol10/iss1/art20.
28. Gutzwiller KJ (ed) (2002) Applying landscape ecology in biological conservation. Springer, New York.
29. Hess GR, King TJ (2002) Planning open spaces for wildlife I. Selecting focal species using a Delphi survey approach. Landsc Urban Plan 58:25-40.
30. Holling CS (2001) Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems 4:390-405.
31. Huntington HP (2000) Using traditional ecological knowledge in science: methods and applications. Ecol App 10:1270-1274.
32. James A, Low Choy S, Mengersen KL (2010) Elicitator: an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology. Environ Model Softw 25:129-145.
33. Johnson CJ, Gillingham MP (2004) Mapping uncertainty: sensitivity of wildlife habitat ratings to expert opinion. J App Ecol 41:1032-1041.
34. Jones J (2001) Habitat selection studies in avian ecology: a critical review. Auk 118:557-562.
35. Kim DH, Slack RD, Chavez-Ramirez F (2008) Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on the distribution of wintering raptors. J Wildl Manag 72:231-239.
36. King AW, Perera AH (2006) Transfer and extension of forest landscape ecology: a matter of models and scale. In: Perera AH, Buse LJ, Crow TR (eds) Forest landscape ecology: transferring knowledge to practice. Springer, New York.
37. Kontic B (2000) Why are some experts more credible than others? Environ Impact Assess Rev 20:427-434.
38. Kynn M (2008) The 'heuristics and biases' bias in expert elicitation. J R Stat Soc A: Stat Soc 171:239-264.
39. Lefsky MA, Cohen WB, Parker GG, Harding DJ (2002) Lidar remote sensing for ecosystem studies. BioScience 52:19-30.
40. Liu J, Taylor WW (eds) (2002) Integrating landscape ecology into natural resource management. Cambridge University Press, New York.
41. Low Choy SL, O'Leary R, Mengersen, KL (2009) Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models. Ecology 90:265-277.
42. Lyons JE, Runge MC, Lasowski HP, Kendall WL (2008) Monitoring in the context of structured decision making and adaptive management. J Wildl Manag 72:1683-1692.
43. MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Hines JE, Knutson MG, Franklin AB (2003) Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 84:2200-2207.
44. MacMillan DC, Marshall K (2006) The Delphi process - an expert-based approach to ecological modeling in data-poor environments. Anim Conserv 9:11-19.
45. Marcot BG, Holthausen RS Raphael MG, Rowland MM, Wisdom MJ (2001) Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. Forest Ecol Manag 153:29-42.
46. Marcot BG, Steventon JD, Sutherland GD, McCann RK (2006) Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Can J For Res 36:3063-3074.
47. Martin TG, Kuhnert PM, Mengersen K, Possingham HP (2005) The power of expert opinion in ecological models using Bayesian methods: impact of grazing on birds. Ecol App 15:266-280.
48. McCarthy MA (2007) Bayesian methods in ecology. Cambridge University Press, New York.
49. Meyer, MA, Booker JM (2001) Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
50. Millspaugh JJ, Thompson III FR (eds) (2009) Models for planning wildlife conservation in large landscapes. Academic Press, Massachusetts.
51. Moody AT, Grand JB (in press) Incorporating expert knowledge in decision support models for bird conservation. In: Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) Expert knowledge and landscape ecological applications. Springer, New York.
52. Morris PA (1977) Combining expert judgements: a Bayesian approach. Manag Sci 23:679-693.
53. Murray JV, Goldizen AW, O'Leary RA, McAlpine CA, Possingham HP, Choy SL (2009) How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata. J App Ecol 46:842-851.
54. Nyberg JB, Marcot BG, Sulyma R (2006) Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management. Can J For Res 36:3104-3116.
55. O'Hagan A (1998) Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. J R Stat Soc Ser D: the Statistician 47:21-35 (with discussion, pp. 55-68).
56. O'Hagan A (2006) Research in elicitation. In: Upadhyay SK, Singh U, Dey DK (eds) Bayesian statistics and its applications. Anamaya, New Delhi.
57. O'Leary RA, Murray JV, Low Choy SJ, Mengersen KL (2008) Expert elicitation for Bayesian classification trees. J App Prob Stat 3:95-106.
58. Pearce JL, Cherry K, Drielsma M, Ferrier S, Whish G (2001) Incorporating expert opinion and fine-scale vegetation mapping into statistical models of faunal distribution. J App Ecol 38:412-424.
59. Perera AH, Buse LJ, Crow TR (eds) (2006) Forest landscape ecology: transferring knowledge to practice. Springer, New York.
60. Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) (in press) Expert knowledge and ecological applications. Springer, New York.
61. Petit S, Chamberlain D, Haysom K, Pywell R, Vickery J, Warman L, Allen D, Firbank L (2003) Knowledge-based models for predicting species occurrence in arable conditions. Ecography 26:626-640.
62. Ralls K, Starfield AM (1995) Choosing a management strategy: two structured decision making methods for evaluating the predictions of stochastic simulation models. Conserv Biol 9:175-181.
63. Ray N, Burgman MA (2006) Subjective uncertainties in habitat suitability maps. Ecol Model 195:172-186.
64. Root T (1988) Environmental factors associated with avian distributional boundaries. J Biogeogr 15:489-505.
65. Rothlisberger JD, Lodge DM, Cooke RM, Finnoff DC (2010) Future declines of the binational Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: the importance of environmental and cultural change. Front Ecol Environ 8:239-244.
66. Rykiel Jr, EJ (1989) Artificial intelligence and expert systems in ecology and natural resource management. Ecol Model 46:3-8.
67. Silbernagel JM, Price J, Miller N, Swaty R, White M (in press) An iterative, interactive elicitation process sheds light into black box of forest conservation scenarios. In: Perera AH, Drew CA, Johnson C (eds) Expert knowledge and landscape ecological applications. Springer, New York.
68. Starfield A, Bleloch AL (1991) Building models for conservation and wildlife management. Second edition, The Burgess Press, Edina, Minnesota.
69. Stenseth NC, Mysterud A, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Chan KS, Lima M (2002) Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292-1296.
70. Store R, Kangas J (2001) Integrating spatial multi-criteria evaluation and expert knowledge for GIS-based habitat suitability modeling. Landsc Urban Plan 55:79-93.
71. Teck SJ, Halpern BS, Kappel CV, Micheli F, Selkoe KA, Crain CM, Martone R, Shearer C, Arvai J, Fischhoff B, Murray G, Neslo R, Cooke R (2010) Using expert judgment to estimate marine ecosystem vulnerability in the California Current. Ecol App. DOI:10.1890/09-1173.
72. Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124-1131.
73. Troll C (1939) Luftbildplan und ökologische Bodenforschung. Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft für Erdkunde, Berlin, pp 241-298.
74. Uusitalo L (2007) Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modeling. Ecol Model 203:312-318.
75. Williams BK (2003) Policy, research, and adaptive management in avian conservation. Auk 120:212-217.
76. Williams BK, Szaro RC, Shapiro CD (2009) Adaptive management: the US Department of the Interior technical guide. Adaptive Management Working Group, US Department of the Interior, Washington, DC.
77. Yamada K, Elith J, McCarthy M, Zerger A (2003) Eliciting and integrating expert knowledge for wildlife habitat modelling. Ecol Model 165:251-264.