Synthesising 30 Years of Mathematical Modelling of Echinococcus Transmission

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Volumn 7, Issue 8, 2013, Pages

  Atkinson, Jo An M ^a   Williams, Gail M ^a   Yakob, Laith ^a   Clements, Archie C A ^a   Barnes, Tamsin S ^a   McManus, Donald P ^a,b   Yang, Yu Rong ^b,c,d   Gray, Darren J ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b QIMR BERGHOFER MEDICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Australia)

^c GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d NINGXIA MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE DISTRIBUTION; BEHAVIOR; COMPARTMENT MODEL; DEMOGRAPHY; ECHINOCOCCOSIS; ECHINOCOCCUS GRANULOSUS; ECHINOCOCCUS MULTILOCULARIS; INFECTION RISK; INNATE IMMUNITY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; PARASITE TRANSMISSION; POPULATION DENSITY DEPENDENCE; REVIEW; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIMULATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICS; SURVIVAL TIME;

EID: 84883343571     PISSN: 19352727     EISSN: 19352735     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002386     Document Type: Review

References (69)

1. Atkinson JM, Gray DJ, Clements ACA, Barnes TS, McManus DP, et al. (2012) Environmental changes impacting Echinococcus transmission: research to support predictive surveillance and control. Global Change Biology 19: 677-688.
2. Danson FM, Graham AJ, Pleydell DR, Campos-Ponce M, Giraudoux P, et al. (2003) Multi-scale spatial analysis of human alveolar echinococcosis risk in China. Parasitology 127 Suppl: S133-141.
3. Giraudoux P, Craig PS, Delattre P, Bao G, Bartholomot B, et al. (2003) Interactions between landscape changes and host communities can regulate Echinococcus multilocularis transmission. Parasitology 127 Suppl: S121-131.
4. Veit P, Bilger B, Schad V, Schafer J, Frank W, et al. (1995) Influence of environmental factors on the infectivity of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs. Parasitology 110 (Pt 1) (): 79-86.
5. Macpherson CN, (1983) An active intermediate host role for man in the life cycle of Echinococcus granulosus in Turkana, Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 32: 397-404.
6. Battelli G, (2009) Echinococcosis: costs, losses and social consequences of a neglected zoonosis. Vet Res Commun 33 Suppl 1: 47-52.
7. World Health Organization (2011) Accelerating work to overcome the global impact of neglected tropical diseases. A roadmap for implementation Geneva: World Health Organization.
8. World Health Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health (2002) WHO/OIE Manual on Echinococcosis in Humans and Animals: a Public Health Problem of Global Concern. In: Eckert J, Gemmell MA, Meslin FX, Z.S P, editors. Paris, France: World Organisation for Animal Health.
9. Lightowlers MW, (2006) Vaccines against cysticercosis and hydatidosis: foundations in taeniid cestode immunology. Parasitol Int 55 Suppl: S39-43.
10. Vynnycky E, White RG (2010) An introduction to infectious disease modelling. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
11. Rieckmann KH, (2006) The chequered history of malaria control: are new and better tools the ultimate answer? Ann Trop Med Parasitol 100: 647-662.
12. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (1999) Global Disease Elimination and Eradication as Public Health Strategies. AtlantaGeorgia: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 1-212 p.
13. Roberts MG, Aubert MF, (1995) A model for the control of Echinococcus multilocularis in France. Vet Parasitol 56: 67-74.
14. Roberts MG, Lawson JR, Gemmell MA, (1986) Population dynamics in echinococcosis and cysticercosis: mathematical model of the life-cycle of Echinococcus granulosus. Parasitology 92 (Pt 3) (): 621-641.
15. Torgerson PR, (2006) Mathematical models for the control of cystic echinococcosis. Parasitol Int 55 Suppl: S253-258.
16. Keeling M, Danon L, (2009) Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. British Medical Bulletin 92: 33-42.
17. Ishikawa H, Ohga Y, Doi R, (2003) A model for the transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido, Japan. Parasitol Res 91: 444-451.
18. Kato N, Kotani K, Ueno S, Matsuda H, (2010) Optimal risk management of human alveolar echinococcosis with vermifuge. J Theor Biol 267: 265-271.
19. Takumi K, Hegglin D, Deplazes P, Gottstein B, Teunis P, et al. (2012) Mapping the increasing risk of human alveolar echinococcosis in Limburg, The Netherlands. Epidemiol Infect 140: 867-871.
20. Roberts MG, (1994) Modelling of parasitic populations: cestodes. Vet Parasitol 54: 145-160.
21. Takumi K, de Vries A, Chu ML, Mulder J, Teunis P, et al. (2008) Evidence for an increasing presence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes in The Netherlands. Int J Parasitol 38: 571-578.
22. Takumi K, Van der Giessen J, (2005) Transmission dynamics of Echinococcus multilocularis; its reproduction number, persistence in an area of low rodent prevalence, and effectiveness of control. Parasitology 131: 133-140.
23. Barnes TS, Hinds LA, Jenkins DJ, Coleman GT, (2007) Precocious development of hydatid cysts in a macropodid host. Int J Parasitol 37: 1379-1389.
24. Gemmell MA, Lawson JR, Roberts MG, (1986) Population dynamics in echinococcosis and cysticercosis: biological parameters of Echinococcus granulosus in dogs and sheep. Parasitology 92 (Pt 3) (): 599-620.
25. Anderson RM, May RM (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control.: Oxford University Press.
26. Hansen F, Tackmann K, Jeltsch F, Wissel C, Thulke HH, (2003) Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis-ecological implications of field trials. Prev Vet Med 60: 91-105.
27. Nishina T, Ishikawa H, (2008) A stochastic model of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in Hokkaido, Japan, focusing on the infection process. Parasitol Res 102: 465-479.
28. Vervaeke M, Davis S, Leirs H, Verhagen R, (2006) Implications of increased susceptibility to predation for managing the sylvatic cycle of Echinococcus multilocularis. Parasitology 132: 893-901.
29. Heinzmann D, Barbour AD, Torgerson PR, (2011) A mechanistic individual-based two-host interation model for the transmission of a parasitic disease. International Journal of Biomathematics 4: 443-460.
30. Torgerson PR, (2003) The use of mathematical models to simulate control options for echinococcosis. Acta Trop 85: 211-221.
31. Torgerson PR, (2006) Canid immunity to Echinococcus spp.: Impact on transmission. Parasite Immunol 28: 295-303.
32. Torgerson PR, Shaikenov BS, Rysmukhambetova AT, Ussenbayev AE, Abdybekova AM, et al. (2003) Modelling the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus granulosus in dogs in rural Kazakhstan. Parasitology 126: 417-424.
33. Fenyuk B, Sheikina M, (1940) Length of life of Microtus arvalis (Pallas). Vestn Microbiol, Epidemiol Parasitol 19: 571-589.
34. Burlet P, Deplazes P, Hegglin D, (2011) Age, season and spatio-temporal factors affecting the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis and Taenia taeniaeformis in Arvicola terrestris. Parasit Vectors 4: 6.
35. Ming R, Tolley HD, Andersen FL, Chai J, Chang Q, (1992) Frequency distribution of Echinococcus granulosus in dog populations in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Vet Parasitol 43: 233-241.
36. Malthus T (2004) An essay on the principle of population (1798). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
37. Basanez MG, McCarthy JS, French MD, Yang GJ, Walker M, et al. (2012) A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6: e1548.
38. Gemmell MA, Roberts MG (1995) Modelling Echinococcus Life Cycles; Thompson RCALAJ, editor. Wallingford: CAB International. 333-354 p.
39. Pitman R, Edmunds J, Brisson M, Fisman D, Kretzshmar M, et al. (2012) DRAFT- Dynamic Transmission Modelling: A report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modelling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group- Part 7. http://www.ispor.org/workpaper/modeling_methods/DRAFT-Dynamic-Transmission-Modeling-Report.pdf: International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.
40. Busenberg S, van den Driessche P, (1990) Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size. J Math Biol 28: 257-270.
41. Thornton PK, (2010) Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological sciences 365: 2853-2867.
42. World Bank (2009) Minding the stock: bringing public policy to bear on livestock sector development. Washington, DC.
43. Ishikawa H, (2006) Mathematical modeling of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission. Parasitology international 55 Suppl: S259-261.
44. Gao LQ, Hethcote HW, (1992) Disease transmission models with density-dependent demographics. Journal of Mathematical Biology 30: 717-731.
45. Lahmar S, Kilani M, Torgerson PR, (2001) Frequency distributions of Echinococcus granulosus and other helminths in stray dogs in Tunisia. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 95: 69-76.
46. Torgerson PR, Heath DD, (2003) Transmission dynamics and control options for Echinococcus granulosus. Parasitology 127 Suppl: S143-158.
47. Budke CM, Jiamin Q, Craig PS, Torgerson PR, (2005) Modeling the transmission of Echinococcus granulosus and Echinococcus multilocularis in dogs for a high endemic region of the Tibetan plateau. Int J Parasitol 35: 163-170.
48. Azlaf R, Dakkak A, Chentoufi A, El Berrahmani M, (2007) Modelling the transmission of Echinococcus granulosus in dogs in the northwest and in the southwest of Morocco. Vet Parasitol 145: 297-303.
49. Deplazes P, Thompson RC, Constantine CC, Penhale WJ, (1994) Primary infection of dogs with Echinococcus granulosus: systemic and local (Peyer's patches) immune responses. Veterinary immunology and immunopathology 40: 171-184.
50. Health DD, Lawrence SB, (1991) Daily egg-production of dogs infected with Echinococcus granulosus. Archives de la Hidatidosis 30: 321-328.
51. Moreno M, Benavidez U, Carol H, Rosenkranz C, Welle M, et al. (2004) Local and systemic immune responses to Echinococcus granulosus in experimentally infected dogs. Vet Parasitol 119: 37-50.
52. Thevenet PS, Jensen O, Drut R, Cerrone GE, Grenovero MS, et al. (2005) Viability and infectiousness of eggs of Echinococcus granulosus aged under natural conditions of inferior arid climate. Vet Parasitol 133: 71-77.
53. Wachira TM, Macpherson CN, Gathuma JM, (1991) Release and survival of Echinococcus eggs in different environments in Turkana, and their possible impact on the incidence of hydatidosis in man and livestock. J Helminthol 65: 55-61.
54. Hegglin D, Bontadina F, Contesse P, Gloor S, Deplazes P, (2007) Plasticity of predation behaviour as a putative driving force for parasite life-cycle dynamics: the case of urban foxes and Echinococcus multilocularis tapeworm. Functional Ecology 21: 552-560.
55. Robardet E, Giraudoux P, Caillot C, Boue F, Cliquet F, et al. (2008) Infection of foxes by Echinococcocus multilocularis in urban and suburban areas of Nancy, France: influence of feeding habits and environment. Parasite 15: 77-85.
56. Weber JM, Aubry S, (1993) Predation by Foxes, Vulpes-vulpes, on the Fossorial Form of the Water Vole, Arvicola-Terrestris-Scherman, in Western Switzerland. Journal of Zoology 229: 553-559.
57. Lloyd AL, (2004) Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques. Theor Popul Biol 65: 49-65.
58. Hansen F, Jeltsch F, Tackmann K, Staubach C, Thulke HH, (2004) Processes leading to a spatial aggregation of Echinococcus multilocularis in its natural intermediate host Microtus arvalis. Int J Parasitol 34: 37-44.
59. Funk S, Salathe M, Jansen VA, (2010) Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface/the Royal Society 7: 1247-1256.
60. Macpherson CN, (2005) Human behaviour and the epidemiology of parasitic zoonoses. Int J Parasitol 35: 1319-1331.
61. Torgerson PR, Williams DH, Abo-Shehada MN, (1998) Modelling the prevalence of Echinococcus and Taenia species in small ruminants of different ages in northern Jordan. Vet Parasitol 79: 35-51.
62. Heinzmann D, Barbour AD, Torgerson PR, (2009) Compound processes as models for clumped parasite data. Math Biosci 222: 27-35.
63. Dobson AP, (1988) The population biology of parasite-induced changes in host behavior. Q Rev Biol 63: 139-165.
64. Hadeler KP, Freedman HI, (1989) Predator-prey populations with parasitic infection. J Math Biol 27: 609-631.
65. Holmes JC, Bethel WM, (1972) Modification of intermediate host behaviour by parasites. Zoological journal of the Linnean Society 51: 133-149.
66. Poulin R, (1994) The evolution of parasite manipulation of host behaviour: a theoretical analysis. Parasitology 109 Suppl: S109-118.
67. Joly DO, Messier F, (2004) The distribution of Echinococcus granulosus in moose: evidence for parasite-induced vulnerability to predation by wolves? Oecologia 140: 586-590.
68. Yakob L, Williams GM, Gray DJ, Halton K, Solon JA, et al. (2013) Slaving and release in co-infection control. Parasites and Vectors In press.
69. Hollingsworth TD, (2009) Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling. Journal of public health policy 30: 328-341.